Who is Serenity? Understanding the investment logic of the "Godfather of AI Supply Chain"

Written by: Tao Zhu, Golden Finance

Recently, a stock trader named Serenity has inexplicably gone viral. Some call him the godfather of AI supply chains, the king of optical communications, the Roaring Kitty of the AI era, and a new generation WSB legend. Others believe he is merely a survivor of the bull market and has failed to verify his earnings. Regardless of the controversies, Serenity has risen from an overlooked anonymous user to one of the most influential individual researchers in the field of AI investment. This article explores: Who is Serenity? What is his stock selection logic? What stocks is he optimistic about?

1. Who is Serenity?

Many people first became aware of Serenity due to his X account.

His self-introduction on X states: That famous @Reddit WSB trader has now settled on the X platform. AI/Semiconductor supply chain analyst (former member of the RISC-V Foundation), previously an AI research scientist; currently focused on trading lesser-known supply chain bottlenecks.

On the Serenity Tracker, there is also an introduction to Serenity: He is a trader who emerged from Reddit Wall Street Bets (WSB, a retail trading community), an AI and optical communication engineer. He has attracted 473,000 followers on X by pinpointing key bottleneck nodes in the AI supply chain, basically known as "choke points"—key suppliers that are not well-known but have a high degree of vertical integration for AI infrastructure giants.

He claims a return of +122% over the past year, with a peak of +501% YTD (after which there was some retracement), having identified seven key bottleneck layers with over 20 publicly named investment targets (38 in total). Without any fund, there is also no 13F holding disclosure—only investment views published publicly on X, some of which have been gradually validated by financial reports and the industry.

Today, Serenity also shared information on X: He is quite popular in the Chinese community; the core reason is simply having hit upon the next big narrative, such as last year's Neoclouds and optical sector, or this year's 800 vdc and CPO.

Based on the public posts and profile, Serenity is best known for:

Transitioning from Reddit/WSB to X.
Publishing theory-driven stock research reports, with a particular focus on artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and supply chain bottlenecks.
Although Serenity claims robust past returns, these figures are self-reported, with no independent verification, and the specific position sizes are unknown.

2. Serenity's Stock Selection Logic

Serenity's stock selection logic can be summarized as: bottleneck theory. That is: he does not buy Nvidia, but buys the companies that cannot do without Nvidia.

The Serenity Tracker details his stock selection logic with examples:

AXTI Supply Chain: Just as 20% of the world's oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, AI optical communication infrastructure construction relies on several key bottleneck segments controlled by a single supplier or a dual oligopoly. Find these segments, invest in the corresponding companies, and hold them long-term. (Note: AXTI refers to the well-known semiconductor materials company AXT, Inc. (NASDAQ: AXTI). The company mainly produces InP substrate materials essential for optical communication and AI optical modules.)
"Only invest in technologies you really understand and have really researched": Former AI research scientist + RISC-V Foundation member + silicon photonics engineer. He can read substrate-level technical literature, which is often material that individual investors and most analysts won’t delve into.
"Preemptively positioning before institutional funds": Pointed out the InP substrate bottleneck of $AXTI a year in advance. In Q1 2026, the CEO of IntelliEPI acknowledged publicly that "the shortage of indium phosphide supplies is the bottleneck for the entire AI infrastructure."

Among the investment targets publicly named by Serenity, over half are in the optical communication field.

Serenity’s AI optical communication and silicon photonics supply chain can be divided into seven key levels. From this level division, we may gain further insight into his stock selection logic.

1. Raw Materials – Gallium, Indium, Arsenic

Every InP substrate wafer starts with the procurement and refining of these rare metals. The main production source is in China; AXT has its own processing line. Recommended: AXTI.

2. pBN Crucibles and Crystal Growth Equipment

Used for growing InP ingots, the pyrolytic boron nitride crucible is a single supplier bottleneck in the equipment segment. Recommended: Shin-Etsu Chemical.

3. InP Substrate Processing – "The Pearl on the Crown"

This is the segment with the tightest supply constraint in the optical communication supply chain. The CEO of IntelliEPI publicly confirmed in Q1 2026, "InP supply shortage" — a year later than Serenity proposed this judgment. Recommended: AXTI.

4. Continuous Wave Lasers (CW Laser) – Light Source for Co-packaged Optics (CPO)

2027-2028 may see a turning point. CPO is expected to gradually replace pluggable optical modules; Sivers controls this critical bottleneck in laser light sources, with a market cap of only about $290 million. Recommended: SIVE.

5. Optical Modules – Assembly

This is the segment in the supply chain that is easiest to be seen by the market. Nvidia's $2 billion optical investment has locked in capacities here. Recommended: AAOI, COHR, LITE, AXT.

6. Testing and Validation

Testing equipment for optical communication devices – similar to the early stages before AAOI ramped up. Recently gained validation orders from a leading optical module manufacturer. Recommended: AEHR.

7. Optical Cables and Fibers (Hollow-Core Fibers + Traditional Fibers)

This is the basic transmission layer of the entire system. Traditional fibers + new hollow-core fibers are used for low latency interconnections between AI clusters. Recommended: GLW, Prysmian Group, Furukawa Electric.

In summary, Serenity’s core logic is: do not buy the leading AI companies, but seek the segments within the AI industry chain that are most difficult to replace and likely to face supply bottlenecks, and position ahead of market discovery.

3. The 38 Investment Targets Publicly Named by Serenity

If one only looks at the list of stocks publicly recommended by Serenity, it is easy to feel that these targets are unrelated. However, when rearranged according to his "bottleneck theory," it becomes clear that these companies actually form a complete map of AI infrastructure. The scope includes various aspects such as optical communication, storage, AI cloud computing power, and energy. Interestingly, Serenity is even interested in ETH and Coinbase.

1. Optical Communication

(1) AXTI (AXT Inc)

AXT is one of the few companies in the world capable of mass-producing InP (indium phosphide) and GaAs (gallium arsenide) substrates, positioned at the very top of the AI optical communication industry chain. Its main customers supply optical communication manufacturers, silicon photonics manufacturers, and laser manufacturers, holding a significant industrial position, but the financial performance is average: TTM revenue for 2026 is approximately $96 million, still in a loss state. Current stock price is $115.70. Serenity believes InP may become the oil of the future AI photonics era.

(2) SIVE (Sivers Semiconductors)

Sivers primarily produces lasers, photonic chips, and RF chips, mainly targeting AI optical communication, CPO (co-packaged optics), and silicon photonics customers. Serenity believes that the future CPO era will require a large number of continuous wave lasers.

(3) AAOI (Applied Optoelectronics)

Applied Optoelectronics is a vertically integrated manufacturer of fiber optic communication products, producing 400G, 800G, and 1.6T optical modules. Its customers include Microsoft and hyperscale cloud vendors, with approximately $507 million in revenue over the past 12 months, up 64% year-on-year. Current stock price is $169.02.

(4) AEHR (Aehr Test Systems)

Aehr primarily focuses on semiconductor testing equipment, serving AI chip and data center chip manufacturers. The latest quarter revenue is $10.3 million, with a net loss of $3.2 million. However, order value reached $37.2 million.

(5) MRVL (Marvell)

Marvell is a leader in AI networking chips. Core products include DSP, optical interconnects, and custom AI ASICs. Clients include Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet, with estimated revenue exceeding $16 billion for fiscal year 2026. Serenity considers Marvell to be part of the optical communication trunk road.

(6) COHR (Coherent)

Coherent is a global leader in optics, producing lasers, optical devices, and optical modules, covering 2-5 layers of the supply chain.

(7) LITE (Lumentum)

Lumentum is one of the global leaders in optical modules. Clients include Meta and Amazon.

(8) TSEM (Tower Semiconductor)

Tower Semiconductor specializes in specialty wafer foundry services and is one of the global leaders in silicon photonics foundry. Clients include giants like Nvidia and Broadcom.

(9) SOI (Soitec)

Soitec is an undisputed leader in the field of innovative semiconductor engineering substrates (wafers) and a pioneer in the "silicon on insulator" (SOI) technology. Clients include TSMC, Samsung, and Sony.

(10) GLW (Corning)

Corning is a global dominant player in optical fibers, with products including optical fibers, optical cables, and data center connections. Clients encompass Nvidia, Microsoft, AWS, Meta, Apple, and Samsung.

(11) VNP

VNP is a Canadian specialty semiconductor and high-performance materials manufacturer 5N Plus Inc. Customers are concentrated in high-tech barrier industries such as renewable energy, aerospace, medical imaging, and advanced pharmaceuticals, collaborating with companies like First Solar and Sierra Space.

(12) ARM (Arm Holdings)

Arm is a global semiconductor intellectual property (IP) provider headquartered in the UK. It does not produce or sell any actual chips, but focuses on designing reduced instruction set (RISC) processor architectures and licensing these designs to top technology companies worldwide. Serenity believes Arm is a long-term beneficiary of AI infrastructure.

(13) LPK

LPK is a German laser equipment company providing PCB and semiconductor packaging, falling into the advanced packaging category.

(14) XFAB

XFAB is a specialty process wafer foundry. It does not design its own chips but primarily provides chip manufacturing services for clients in automotive, industrial, medical, consumer electronics, and communications.

(15) NVTS (Navitas)

Navitas core business is replacing traditional silicon-based chips with GaN (gallium nitride) and SiC (silicon carbide) technologies, providing efficient, high power density, and low-heat solutions for AI data centers, electric vehicles (EVs), fast charging for smartphones, and industrial power.

(16) WOLF (Wolfspeed)

Wolfspeed is a semiconductor company and a global leader in silicon carbide (SiC) materials and devices.

(17) OSS (One Stop Systems)

One Stop Systems focuses on designing and manufacturing innovative edge computing modules, rugged servers, and AI transmission systems for military, aerospace, automotive, and industrial sectors requiring extreme computing power.

2. Storage, High Bandwidth Memory

(1) SNDK SanDisk

SanDisk is known for designing, manufacturing, and selling memory cards, USB drives, and solid-state drives (SSD), making it one of the core enterprises in the global AI infrastructure and digital storage market. In 2016, SanDisk was acquired by Western Digital and delisted. Subsequently, in 2025, SanDisk was relisted as an independent flash giant, focusing on core storage business and rapidly becoming a key leader in AI storage.

(2) MU Micron

Micron is a semiconductor storage and imaging solution provider. It focuses on designing, manufacturing, and selling core storage technologies like DRAM (dynamic random-access memory) and NAND flash memory.

(3) WIN Win Semi (Winstek, Taiwan)

Winstek is the world's first professional wafer foundry producing GaAs microwave integrated circuits using six-inch wafers.

(4) EWY iShares MSCI Korea ETF

EWY is primarily composed of large-cap stocks in South Korea, covering technology, finance, and automobiles. In addition to Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, it also includes Hyundai, POSCO, and financial stocks, with a diversified industry distribution that may reduce single-industry volatility, but still bears individual country and exchange rate risks.

3. AI Cloud Computing Power Providers

(1) NBIS (Nebius)

Nebius focuses on providing global AI cloud infrastructure. Nvidia and Accel have made substantial strategic investments in it, ensuring Nebius can prioritize and rapidly access the latest generation of Nvidia GPUs to meet global startups' demand for AI computing power.

(2) CRWV (CoreWeave)

CoreWeave is a high-performance GPU cloud computing service provider focusing on AI and deep learning computing power. As a deeply strategic partner of Nvidia, it has become one of the world's largest independent cloud platforms by deploying cutting-edge GPU clusters at scale, primarily serving AI large-model companies, visual effects, and biomedical industries.

(3) IREN (IREN Limited)

IREN Limited is a next-generation data center firm. Originally named "Iris Energy," it rebranded to IREN at the end of 2024 and has transformed from a single green energy Bitcoin miner to a platform focused on AI cloud computing and high-performance computing (HPC) infrastructure.

(4) RDDT (Reddit)

Reddit plays a core role in the AI wave as a "data provider." The company has enjoyed substantial revenue by licensing a 20-year-long corpus of real human interaction data to giants like OpenAI and Google. Its CEO has publicly stated that the company does not heavily invest in data centers (not building cloud computing power for sale) but acts as the data "fuel" for AI development.

4. Macro, Energy

(1) LNG (Cheniere Energy)

Cheniere Energy is the largest LNG (liquefied natural gas) producer in the United States and the second-largest LNG operator globally. It engages in the liquefaction, processing, and export of natural gas, serving as a key driver for the global market expansion of the U.S. shale gas revolution.

(2) CVX (Chevron)

Chevron is one of the largest multinational energy companies in the world and the second-largest integrated energy company in the U.S. Its business encompasses the entire chain, including oil and gas exploration, production, refining, petrochemicals, and renewable energy across over 180 countries and regions globally.

(3) NEXT (NextDecade)

NextDecade is a liquefied natural gas (LNG) development and energy company. Its core business includes natural gas liquefaction, LNG export facility construction, as well as carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology development.

(4) MP (MP Materials)

MP Materials is the largest rare earth material producer in the Western Hemisphere and the only rare earth company in the U.S. with large-scale mining and processing capabilities. The firm aims to rebuild the domestic rare earth supply chain in the U.S. with core products widely used in electric vehicles, wind turbines, and defense systems.

(5) FAZ (3x Short Financials)

FAZ is a leveraged inverse ETF issued by Direxion, designed to provide three times the inverse (-300%) investment return of the Russell 1000 Financial Services Index daily performance.

(6) GUSH (3x Long Oil)

GUSH is a daily leveraged ETF issued by Direxion. It aims to provide investment returns that track multiples of the daily performance of the S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Index.

(7) SQQQ (3x Short Nasdaq)

SQQQ is a leveraged ETF that aims for three times the inverse return of the Nasdaq 100 Index, primarily targeting daily inverted 3x returns, suitable only for intra-day/short-term trading.

(8) UVIX (2x Long VIX)

UVIX is a leveraged ETF that provides twice the daily return of short-term VIX futures, aiming to deliver two times the return of the VIX short-term futures index (LONGVOL), being a purely short-term tool.

(9) AIRO (AIRO Group Drones/Defense)

AIRO is a technology company focused on aerospace and defense, primarily concentrating on military drones, advanced avionics, pilot training, and electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) domains.

5. Cryptocurrency

In the cryptocurrency space, Serenity is focused on ETH and Coinbase.

6. Others

(1) BOT (Direxion Robotics & AI ETF)

BOT is a leveraged ETF issued by Direxion. It aims to achieve twice the investment performance tracking of its index daily.

(2) VCX (Fundrise Innovation Fund)

VCX is a closed-end venture capital fund listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). It pioneered the concept of "Public Venture Capital (PVC)" to break the barriers previously limited to high-net-worth individuals, allowing ordinary retail investors to directly invest in top private tech companies like OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX, and Databricks just like trading stocks.

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