The historical correlation between XRP and Stellar (XLM) has officially cracked this week. While XLM jumped 50% in just a couple of days after the announcement of a partnership with clearing giant DTCC and erased its yearly decline, XRP remained near the bottom with a YTD result of -29.15%.
We break down why XRP cannot repeat this move through the DTCC angle, but is preparing much heavier artillery.
Why the DTCC announcement only sparked one token
The main paradox of the May split between the charts lies in the timeline, since Ripple's ecosystem interacted with DTCC two months earlier, in March 2024.
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XRP and XLM year-to-date price performance in 2026, Source: TradingView
But after the announcement of Stellar's integration, the clearing giant, which processes quadrillions of dollars per year, now has fundamentally different integrations with both projects in terms of substance and timing:
- Stellar (XLM): The market reacted to a fresh and tangible trigger, namely the launch of tokenized Russell 1000 stocks, major ETFs and U.S. Treasuries directly on the Stellar chain in the first half of 2025. This direct utility demand is what rewrote the coin's chart, pushing it up 50% and proving that real-world assets (RWA) are the main driver of the current year.
- XRP: Investors are dealing with March history that has already been priced in, limited to Ripple Prime's brokerage unit entering Wall Street's clearing system. This is certainly a fundamental victory for Ripple's corporate business, but it has nothing to do with the blockchain, since the XRP token itself does not directly participate in these DTCC settlements.
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Moreover, Stellar, with its $6.95 billion market cap, is much easier to push up 50% on expectations of trillion-dollar flows than it is to move heavyweight XRP with its $80.86 billion market cap.
Large institutional capital capable of lifting a token with an $80.86 billion market cap is not waiting for abstract DTCC news, but for something bigger.
Should XRP investors expect a repeat?
No, not because of DTCC. There is no direct fundamental growth trigger for XRP here, and the breakdown in chart correlation is justified by the facts. XRP cannot currently repeat Stellar's success in direct tokenization.
However, writing XRP off would be premature. The long-standing presence of a mature ETF market means the infrastructure for explosive growth is fully prepared.
To start this flywheel, XRP needs its own trump cards, which are expected in the second half of 2025 - final approval of the Clarity Act in the U.S. Senate, which would open the door for major funds, and a potential IPO of Ripple itself.
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