Written by: Ma He, Foresight News

On May 18, Nicolas Vaiman, the founder of Bubblemaps, and investigative director Deebs (a former U.S. Army officer whose real name is withheld for security reasons) disclosed to the public that they had discovered nine highly interconnected anonymous accounts on Polymarket, which collectively netted over 2.4 million dollars in the military operation-related prediction market with a win rate of up to 98%.

Bubblemaps detailed on Twitter that these accounts almost exclusively bet on military events related to the U.S.-Iran conflict in 2026, timing their bets with chilling precision—often placing wagers just days before key operations, and favoring low-odds long-term options.

This is not mere "good luck." After visualizing the trades on Polymarket regarding "the U.S. striking Iran before February 28," Bubblemaps discovered a huge pink cluster that had not been mentioned on platform X before.

Upon further tracking, they linked the original four accounts with another five through time windows, trade sizes, and funding flow paths. The funding paths of the nine accounts were highly consistent: they quickly transferred funds through centralized exchanges into a shared wallet network, presumably using professional services to conceal their traces.

Four core accounts each earned 400,000 dollars

On the morning of February 28, 2026, the U.S. and Israel launched large-scale joint strikes codenamed "Operation Epic Fury" and "Lion's Roar." The U.S. and Israeli forces launched nearly 900 strikes against Iran within 12 hours, targeting nuclear facilities, missile bases, military command centers, and hideouts of high-ranking leaders. Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and several family members and high-ranking members of the Revolutionary Guard were killed in the first wave of strikes.

As early as the day of the strike on February 28, Bubblemaps publicly identified six "fresh" accounts. Most of these accounts were created and funded within 24 hours before the strike, accurately betting that "the U.S. would strike Iran before February 28," collectively netting about 1 million dollars (some reports indicate 1.2 million dollars). At that time, market odds were extremely low, yet these accounts heavily invested. Bubblemaps described this as "suspected insider trading."

Five months later, this cluster of nine accounts they discovered was larger and had a higher win rate.

The four core accounts were created just days before February 28, each earning about 400,000 dollars; the subsequent five accounts were linked through funding flows and overlapping trades. The nine accounts placed more than 80 bets, almost exclusively wagering on U.S. military actions: the first strike on February 28, the specific timing of Khamenei's elimination, the announcement of the ceasefire, etc. They even spread their bets across multiple dates to maximize profits, occasionally placing one or two small losing bets (such as on February 20) to presumably divert attention.

Bubblemaps listed the nine Polymarket wallet addresses (such as 0x09d3273fa76282ce09f4f35a87d6f087c05f4e84) and emphasized that these accounts had consistently topped the profit and loss leaderboard. The funds eventually flow to a shared wallet network, indicating signs of professional money laundering or services.

Vaiman bluntly stated: "Luck cannot explain these numbers." Deebs added that potential insider sources are numerous—government officials, military planners, intelligence analysts, and even military family members.

Earlier this year, U.S. Army Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke was charged with using confidential information to bet on Polymarket regarding special operations in Venezuela, investing 34,000 dollars and earning 400,000 dollars before quickly withdrawing and attempting to delete his account. Polymarket cooperated actively with law enforcement, ultimately leading to prosecution. The Van Dyke case is seen as a landmark case of insider trading in prediction markets.

The profits from this cluster of nine accounts are six times that amount, with a higher win rate, and they are entirely focused on U.S.-Iran military events.

Bubblemaps shared the investigation exclusively with "60 Minutes," and the show aired on May 17, attracting considerable attention. CBS reported that Polymarket has established AI monitoring and blockchain forensic systems, which notify law enforcement of suspicious activities, and emphasized that "insider trading is unwelcome on the platform."

As of the time of reporting, Bubblemaps had not directly linked the nine accounts to any specific entity or government agency, only stating that "the connections and near-perfect win rate raise serious suspicions."

Anti-insider and Follow-up Insider

Insider trading has made many market participants feel unfair, and prediction market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket are taking more measures to combat insider trading.

At the end of March this year, Polymarket updated its market integrity rules for its DeFi platform and the U.S. exchange regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The updated rules clearly defined three core prohibited insider trading behaviors:

• Trading using stolen confidential information—If participants possess confidential information about the results or possible outcomes of the target event, and using that information would violate pre-existing trust or confidentiality obligations to others or entities, participants must not trade any contract.
• Prohibition of trading using illegal insider information—Participants must not trade using confidential information provided to them by others if that information is provided by someone who has prior trust or confidentiality obligations to others, and participants know or have reason to know that the person providing that information would be prohibited from trading using that information themselves.
• Trading by those who can influence the outcome—If participants possess enough authority or influence to affect the outcome of the target event, they must not participate in any contract trades.

However, rules always have loopholes, and since insider trading cannot be completely eradicated, some so-called "follow-up insider projects" have also been controversial. These applications organize exceptionally high win-rate trading accounts for users or highlight suspicious timing and abnormal amounts of trades, helping users to copy these trades with one click.

Kreo's selling point is to help users "find insider traders earlier than others," while Polycool directly posts a "Polymarket Insider Trading Guide" on its official website, stating "this is not the stock market, betting with non-public information will not lead to jail, the rules of decentralized prediction markets are entirely different."

Questions arise, does the so-called "insider follow-up trading address" count as a violation?

Currently, the official response is not available.

However, the so-called "insider follow-up platforms" like PolyGUN and Polycule faced hacking attacks this year, resulting in losses ranging from tens of thousands to even hundreds of thousands of dollars.

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