Trading Moment: The semiconductor sector faces a sharp adjustment, can Bitcoin hold steady at $80,000?

Daily market key data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

Macroeconomic Market

The U.S. stock market fluctuated under the shadow of inflation, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average slightly rising by 0.11% to 49,760.56 points, while the NASDAQ and S&P 500 indexes fell 0.71% (to 26,088.20 points) and 0.16% (to 7,400.96 points) respectively.

The U.S. April CPI rose 3.8% year-on-year, with core CPI growth expanding to 2.8%, both exceeding expectations, as the overall CPI hit a three-year high, completely overturning market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve within this year. Data from the CME indicates that the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in December has risen to over 30%. However, Citigroup and MUFG are still betting against this trend, insisting that the labor market is weak and that the Federal Reserve will still cut rates by 50 to 75 basis points this year. It is worth noting that the U.S. Senate officially confirmed Waller as a member of the Federal Reserve Board yesterday, with market expectations indicating he also does not have room for easing.

Japanese government bond yields rose across the board, with the 5-year yield up 3 basis points to 1.945%, the 20-year yield up 5 basis points to 3.495%, both setting historical highs, and the 10-year yield rising to 2.590%, the highest level since May 1997.

The Korean KOSPI index rebounded by 2.6% today, driven by retail investors buying against the trend after experiencing panic over the "national dividend". Yesterday, the Korea ETF (EWY) plummeted more than 7%, marking the second largest single-day drop since the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020, as the South Korean presidential office's proposal to establish an "AI citizen dividend" was interpreted as a plan to distribute the excess profits of AI companies to the public, followed by an urgent clarification that it would come from excess tax revenue rather than profits. Samsung Electronics temporarily plummeted over 6% due to unsuccessful wage negotiations but has turned to a 2% rise; SK Hynix reversed its downward trend, surging over 8%.

The three major A-share indices collectively surged, with the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index both rising over 1%, the ChiNext Index breaking through 4000 points, creating a near 11-year high, approaching the all-time high of 4037.96 points in 2015.

The Indian government announced on May 13 that it would double the import tax on gold and silver to 15%, aiming to curb the "gold buying craze" and defend the rupee, prompting a sharp rise of 6% in Indian gold futures prices, with related gold and silver ETFs soaring over 5%.

Additionally, due to multiple factors such as tight sulfur supply in the Middle East, increased demand for electrical copper driven by the expansion of the AI industry, and limited global copper mine supply, copper prices continue to rise. LME copper rose to $14,106.50 per ton, approaching historical highs, while COMEX copper recorded a new high of $6.6455 per pound. Institutions such as TD Securities and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce are collectively bullish on copper prices, expecting a supply gap of 350,000 tons in the global copper market by 2027. Tight supply of sulfur and delays in the resumption of Indonesian copper mines further exacerbate supply pressure, leading analysts to believe that copper prices will remain strong through 2026, with a long-term upward trend likely to continue.

AI and Stock Market

The semiconductor and chip sector faced a severe correction after a carnival. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 3.01% in a single day, with an intraday flash crash of nearly 7%. The chip ETF fell 3.15%, Qualcomm plummeted 11.46%, Intel fell 6.82%, SanDisk and Micron dropped 8.5% and 3.5% respectively, while ASML, Credo, AMD, and TSMC ADR were not spared.

Goldman Sachs warned that the leveraged ETFs in the semiconductor sector have surged drastically, with the short gamma exposure doubling in the past 6 to 9 months to approximately $2 billion per day, which could trigger chain sell-offs during deleveraging. Goldman Sachs advises investors to hedge risks through holding SMH and a basket of leading AI stocks with downside options. Legendary tech investor Dan Niles believes that the current AI boom is similar to the period before the 1998 internet bubble, wherein the profits of the seven tech giants rely more on revaluation of non-listed assets than actual earnings. He forecasts that AI growth will slow in early next year, with related stocks potentially plummeting 30%-50%.

Bitcoin Market

Bitcoin fluctuated around the $80,000 mark, recently rebounding from $79,900 to $81,000 under the influence of inflation data and the appointment of Federal Reserve governors, representing an over 40% rebound from the low of $60,000 at the beginning of the year, but still around 36% away from the historical high of $126,000. Data indicates that there are large amounts of short selling limit orders accumulated at $81,550 and in the $83,000 to $85,000 range, while significant long limit orders are also gathering down at $76,328, $75,000, and $70,000. Currently, Strategy's Bitcoin holdings have reached 818,869 coins, with an average cost of about $75,543.

Bearish Perspective

The core logic of the bear camp is that: the current rise lacks support from spot buying and relies excessively on contract short squeezes, also facing heavy technical resistance and macro headwinds.

Wintermute: The breakout above $80,000 was entirely driven by perpetual contract short squeeze, with the open interest in the futures soaring to $58 billion but spot trading volume dropping to a two-year low, leading to an extremely fragile rise without spot support.
Ali Charts: The 200-day moving average at $82,500 is a matter of life and death resistance, miners are locking in profits by selling at highs, and if a quick breakout does not occur, the market will clean out leveraged longs at $75,000 or even $70,000.
Whale pension-usdt.eth: Despite holding short positions of 1000 BTC with a floating loss of $13 million, they insist that “the short logic still holds”, betting on a return to $71,500 after breaking the wedge support.
Matthew Dixon: After the peak at $82,833, a 5-wave decline has unfolded, with clear short-term downward direction, which could be the start of a larger level downtrend.
Swiss: Closely monitor the support at $79,000, and if it breaks and confirms, will decisively enter short.
Killa: Bitcoin price has failed to regain the weekly opening price; once it breaks below the psychological barrier of $80,000, it will naturally probe down to $74,000 to $76,000 in search of long opportunities.

Bullish Perspective

The core logic of the bull camp is that: the expectation for macro liquidity expansion remains unchanged, ETF funds and institutional buying have built a solid bottom, and technical indicators have issued long-term bullish signals.

Arthur Hayes: AI capital expenditure and war spending will force fiat currencies into reckless expansion, and the Bitcoin bull market started as early as the end of February, surpassing the previous high of $126,000 is inevitable; once above $90,000, the rally will be completely unleashed.
Michaël van de Poppe: There are no signs of fatigue on the charts; every pullback is quickly bought, expecting to reach $86,000 to $90,000 in the next 2-3 weeks, with "buying the dip" remaining the winning strategy.
Matt Mena: The stable performance of Bitcoin around $81,000 demonstrates strong market support; as long as daily closes remain above $82,000, Bitcoin prices are expected to break through the key range of $85,000 to $90,000.
Scient: Since the low of $65,500, Bitcoin's upward trend has been very clear. As long as it holds the retracement area of $80,000, bulls will continue to advance strongly.
Mooncake: Buyers of Bitcoin are strongly buying at $79,800, fully capable of slowly pushing up above $83,000.
Material Indicators: Bitcoin bulls are attempting to establish a support conversion near $80,700, building momentum for a breakthrough of the 200-day moving average.

Key Data (as of May 13, 14:00 HKT)

(Data source: Coinank, Upbit, SoSoValue, CryptoBubbles)

Bitcoin ETF: -$233 million
Ethereum ETF: -$131 million
SOL ETF: +$19.069 million
XRP ETF: +$5.3098 million
Fear and Greed Index: 42 (Neutral)
Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: XRP, BTC, SAHARA, ETH, ONDO
Sector performance: AI sector rose 1.42% in 24 hours, SocialFi sector fell 2.41%

24-hour liquidation data: A total of 79,542 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $248 million, among which BTC had a liquidation of $50.19 million, ETH had a liquidation of $45.16 million, and CHF had a liquidation of $39.67 million.

Today's Outlook

Waller confirmed as the Federal Reserve governor, confirmation of the chairman's voting is expected to be held on Wednesday
The Ethereum Foundation has opened EPF7 applications, which will close on May 13
Base: The first independent network upgrade "Base Azul" will go live on the mainnet on May 13
The Moscow Exchange will launch futures trading for Solana, Ripple, and Tron on May 14
The U.S. Senate Banking Committee is set to hold a hearing on the CLARITY Act on May 14
DeFi protocol Carrot announces it will soon shut down, with May 14 as the deadline for fund withdrawals
Aptos (APT) will unlock approximately 11.31 million tokens on May 13, worth about $12.4 million
The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week of May 9 (in tens of thousands): expected 205, previous value 200 (May 14, 20:30)

Today's top 100 cryptocurrencies with the highest increase: Unibase up 15.4%, Injective up 13.3%, Stacks up 6.7%, Stable up 5.4%, NEAR Protocol up 4.7%.

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