Author: Claude, Deep Tide TechFlow

Deep Tide Introduction: The Solana spot ETF recorded a net inflow of $39.23 million last week, marking the strongest single-week performance since February, with Bitwise BSOL alone accounting for 92% of the share. Futures open interest surged by 29.5% in the first two weeks of May to reach $6.4 billion, with spot and derivatives buying activity increasing in sync.

Technically, an Adam & Eve bottom pattern has emerged, with a target pointing towards $120. Meanwhile, Solana's largest consensus upgrade, Alpenglow, went live on the community testnet on May 11. Co-founder Yakovenko stated that the mainnet deployment could happen as early as next quarter. Capital, derivatives, and on-chain fundamentals are all simultaneously signaling bullish activity.

SOL is undergoing a multidimensional signal resonance.

According to Cointelegraph's report on May 11, the Solana spot ETF recorded a net inflow of $39.23 million last week, the strongest single-week performance since February this year. During the same period, SOL's price rose by about 15% within a week to around $97, and futures open interest increased by nearly $1.5 billion within half a month.

The structure of on-chain holders is quietly changing: traders and speculative funds have gradually exited during four months of sideways trading, while strong holders have regained control of the chips. Any increase in volume after a sharp decline will likely push prices upward.

Multiple independent data sources are signaling the same direction.

ETF fund flows reverse the six-month decline trend, with Bitwise BSOL capturing 80% of the market

According to SoSoValue data, last week the Solana spot ETF saw a net inflow of $39.23 million, of which Bitwise's staked ETF BSOL contributed $36 million, accounting for about 92%; Fidelity FSOL saw an inflow of about $1.8 million. Since its launch, BSOL has accumulated approximately $861 million, representing 81% of the total cumulative inflow of all SOL spot ETFs (approximately $1.06 billion).

The significance of this figure needs to be understood in a longer time frame. According to BeInCrypto citing SoSoValue data, Solana ETF monthly inflows have declined for six consecutive months since peaking at $419 million in November last year: December saw $148 million, January $105 million, February $63 million, March $45.44 million, and April only $39.93 million, the lowest monthly performance since the product was launched. In the first two weeks of May, the single-week inflow was close to the total for April, and if the current pace continues, it will mark the first reversal of the six-month downward trend.

As of the time of writing, the total net assets of all SOL spot ETFs are approximately $938 million, with SOL accounting for about 1.82% of ETF net assets, and the historical cumulative net inflow has surpassed $1 billion.

Futures open interest surged by 30% in half a month to $6.4 billion, with spot buying activity increasing simultaneously

The signals from the derivatives market are also clear.

According to Coinglass data, SOL futures open interest rose from $4.94 billion on May 1 to $6.4 billion, increasing by 29.5% in half a month, which is an increase of approximately $1.5 billion. This is not just leveraging existing positions; it is direct evidence of new capital entering the market.

The spot market's buying interest is also in sync. According to velo.chart data, the cumulative trading volume net difference (CVD, measuring the net difference between market buying and selling) rose from $163 million to nearly $250 million within five days; futures CVD has been rising steadily since May 5, expanding to about $594 million. Buyers are absorbing selling liquidity in both the spot and futures markets simultaneously.

The funding rate has remained around 0.065%, indicating that bulls are still paying to maintain their positions, but it has not reached overheating levels. However, after SOL touched the $95 to $96 range, the net difference in spot and transaction volume has begun to stabilize, and short-term momentum has cooled.

Alpenglow launches testnet, marking the countdown to Solana's largest consensus upgrade

Beyond capital and technical aspects, the fundamentals are also providing a catalyst.

According to CoinDesk's report on May 11, the core development team of Solana, Anza, announced that the largest consensus upgrade in the network's history, Alpenglow, has been launched on the community testing cluster. This upgrade will replace the existing Proof-of-History and TowerBFT systems with a brand new Votor and Rotor protocol, aiming to compress the transaction finality time from the current approximately 12.8 seconds to around 150 milliseconds, speeding up by almost 100 times.

In a community vote last September, 98.27% of stakers voted in favor of this proposal, with a participation rate of 52%. Solana co-founder Anatoly Yakovenko stated at the Consensus conference in Miami last week that if testing goes smoothly, Alpenglow could go live on the mainnet as early as next quarter.

Holder structure silently transitions, a healthier chip distribution after "tourists exit"

Crypto KOL gum pointed out in a post on platform X that SOL is breaking out from four months of consolidation, but this time the underlying reason for the breakout is not just technical. He believes that SOL's current breakout rather than a month ago is because it serves as a barometer for the risk appetite in the entire crypto market, with the current trend pricing in a "risk return."

More critically is the chip structure. Gum pointed out that during the four months of sideways trading, short-term traders and speculative funds have abandoned SOL, leading to a sharp decline in trading volume. Strong holders (conviction holders) have regained control of the token distribution. In this chip structure, any reasonable rebound in trading volume will push momentum upwards.

For further reading: KOL Perspective: Why SOL Will Rise at This Level?

Risk Warning: Short-term momentum shows signs of cooling

It is important to note that the buying strength in the $95 to $96 range for SOL has started to weaken, and the CVD for both spot and futures markets have flattened in the past 24 hours. The Adam & Eve pattern still needs a daily close confirmation; if it cannot stay above $95, it may face a pullback to the support range of $89 to $91.

Additionally, BeInCrypto previously analyzed that if ETF inflows in May fail to stabilize or continue to decline, SOL may face selling pressure from exchanges. Rapid accumulation of high leverage also means that once prices retrace, cascading liquidations could amplify volatility. The liquidity vacuum following the retreat of meme coin-driven retail enthusiasm is also a historically recurring risk pattern.

Multiple signals from capital, derivatives, and technical aspects are pointing in the same direction, but the market is never short of precedents of counter-movements when "signals align." The technical target of $120 is clearly visible, but every step from $95 to $120 requires actual buying interest to materialize.