Trading Moment: Global Storage Sector Soars, BTC Bears Warn of Retesting 75,000 Support

Daily market key data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

Macro Market

US President Trump and Iran mutually rejected each other's peace proposals, further escalating tensions between the US and Iran. In response, Brent crude oil surged 5% to $105 per barrel, while WTI crude oil rose nearly 6% to $100. All three major US stock index futures weakened, with Dow futures, S&P 500 futures, and Nasdaq 100 futures falling approximately 0.21%, 0.13%, and 0.08% respectively. Scott Rubner from Citadel Securities warned that the US stock market is being supported by only a handful of tech stocks, creating a risk of over-concentration in market structure.

The South Korean stock market opened high and kept rising, with the KOSPI index soaring over 5% to a historic high of 7870 points. The futures surged 5%, triggering a circuit breaker. JP Morgan is extremely optimistic, raising its KOSPI target for the second time in less than a month, predicting that under a bull market scenario, the KOSPI index will aim for the 10,000-point mark; Goldman Sachs also raised its target to 9000 points last week.

By the close at noon, all four major A-share indices rose collectively, with the Shanghai Composite Index soaring 0.94% and strongly breaking through 4200 points, reaching a new high in over ten years. The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index rose simultaneously by 2.13% and 3.03%, closing at 15895.75 points and 3911.32 points respectively. The Sci-Tech Innovation Index stood above 2109.10 points, with nearly 3000 stocks in the market showing gains.

April CPI data will be announced on Tuesday, and Wall Street analysts indicate that if April CPI significantly exceeds expectations, the market may shift from an expectation of "pausing rate cuts" to anticipating "rate hikes," which could lead to repricing pressures in global stock and bond markets.

AI and the Stock Market

The global storage sector surged, with SanDisk and Micron Technology both rising over 15% last Friday. The total market capitalization of the South Korean stock market broke through 700 trillion won for the first time today, with SK Hynix's share price soaring nearly 14% to 1.922 million won, exceeding 90 billion dollars in market value; Samsung Electronics also rose over 6%, reaching a market value of 1.2 trillion dollars. JP Morgan believes that the upwards cycle of storage chips, corporate governance reforms, and thematic growth from AI are major driving forces. Over the next two years, storage chip prices and shipments are expected to continue rising, supporting the long-term upward logic of the South Korean stock market.

The A-share storage sector also experienced a surge, with you technology hitting a 20% limit up, LanQi Technology soaring over 17%, and the price rises of Jiangbo Long, Zhaoyi Innovation, and Baiwei Storage all exceeding 9%.

Faced with such a fervent market, Wall Street tycoons are beginning to prepare for possible downturns. "Big Short" Michael Burry warned that the current market obsession with AI resembles the final phase before the burst of the internet bubble in 2000. Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Leuthold Group, which is generally bullish on the market, warned that the recent rise of tech stocks may not last long.

Bitcoin Market

Since January 26, Bitcoin has closed above $82000 for the first time on both daily and weekly charts. Since the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict, Bitcoin has experienced significant volatility and has risen nearly 30% cumulatively.

On-chain data shows that retail investors increased their holdings by over 23,000 BTC within 30 days, and whales added over 140,000 in the same period, setting a two-year high. Currently, the implied volatility (IV) of options for one week and one month has both dropped below 40%. Analyst Murphy pointed out that this extreme consensus in the market often serves as a contrarian indicator for large-scale volatility.

It is worth noting that significant funds are flowing out of the South Korean crypto market and being redirected to the domestic stock market. South Korean investors' crypto asset holdings have halved within a year to $41.4 billion, with daily trading volume on major exchanges plummeting from $11.6 billion to $3 billion, and deposits in won have also significantly decreased. As the South Korean stock market continues to reach new highs, attracting enormous inflows of capital, the army of Korean traders promoting cryptocurrencies, which once inflated kimchi premiums, is now shifting to the stock market.

Bearish Viewpoints

Core logic: Macro inflation data has already been priced in by the market, and current structures need deep corrections to clear floating capital, with heavy resistance above making blind pursuit unwise.

Killa: The CPI good news has been priced in, and large funds may go risk-off before the data release. $84000 is a strong resistance; if it cannot break through, $74000-$75000 will be the next target for a correction.
Santiment: The ratio of bullish to bearish sentiment on social media has reached 1.5:1. Such confident rises are often extremely short-lived. An ideal scenario would be a pullback to $75000, clearing late-stage longs and resetting market sentiment.
Darkfost (CryptoQuant): The entire network's Bitcoin hash rate has fallen below the annual average, increasing competition among miners, with some facing shutdown pressures. The industry is entering a painful adjustment period.
Michael van de Poppe: Before Bitcoin continues its explosive bull market, I wouldn't be surprised if the price retraces to the $70000 to $75000 range.

Bullish Viewpoints

Core logic: Institutional funds and spot ETF buying remain strong, along with potential positive factors from the US regulatory environment, and technical aspects are forming a breakout trend.

Markus Thielen (10x Research): This week’s Senate confirmation vote for the Federal Reserve Chair and the advancement of the CLARITY Act will eliminate policy uncertainty, providing strong support for Bitcoin to hold above $80000.
Ash Crypto: Bitcoin's weekly close is above $82,000 for the first time; it breaks above the 20-day moving average on the weekly chart since 2026, with a bullish cross in the weekly MACD and RSI rising to 52, entering bull territory. The current support level is $74,000. US stocks have now closed higher for six consecutive weeks; if US stocks stabilize this week, there may be funds flowing into the crypto market, but a downturn in US stocks may affect cryptocurrencies.
CrypNuevo: Bitcoin is expected to challenge the $84,000 to $85,000 range in the short term; the current key support is at $79,000. If it falls below this level, it may lose upward momentum.
Cryptic Trades: As long as the price can hold above the "bull market support band" under $80,000 and the high cycle support at $75,000, further upward movement remains the most likely outcome.
Matthew Hyland: Bitcoin's upward momentum remains strong and is likely to reach the target range of $87,000 to $95,000 before June.

Market Dynamics

The altcoin market has seen localized explosions, with strong performance in US stocks and a significant inflow of funds from the crypto sector through channels like OKX and Binance Alpha into on-chain US stock segments. The leading project in the RWA sector, ONDO, surged nearly 70% in May. The meme coin GOBLIN skyrocketed 140% after OpenAI CEO Sam Altman mentioned that a new model might be named "Goblin," pushing its market cap above $18 million.

Adeniyi Abiodun, co-founder of Mysten Labs, revealed yesterday that this year the Sui network will launch confidential transaction features to support large-scale privacy payments. Meanwhile, the Sui treasury company SUI Group announced that as of May 4, it held 108.7 million SUI, most of which is staked. Driven by multiple favorable factors, SUI saw a price increase of 25% in a single day.

Additionally, the recent explosion of narratives regarding Uniswap V4 hooks has driven the price of UNI to rise over 30% since May, leading not only to a wealth of innovative projects but also reviving the NFT market.

Key Data (As of May 11, 14:00 HKT)

(Data source: Coinank, Upbit, SoSoValue, CryptoBubbles)

Bitcoin ETF: $623 million net inflow last week, achieving net inflows for six consecutive weeks.
Ethereum ETF: $70.49 million net inflow last week.
SOL ETF: $39.23 million net inflow last week.
XRP ETF: $34.21 million net inflow last week.
Fear and Greed Index: 48 (Neutral).
Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: XRP, BTC, SUI, LAYER, ETH.
Sector rise and fall: The crypto market generally rose, with the PayFi sector leading with a 3.26% rise.

24-hour liquidation data: A total of 80,192 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $356 million, including $105 million of BTC liquidations, $79.08 million of ETH liquidations, and $30.32 million of SOL liquidations.

Today's Outlook

The lending protocol Venus will close the vSXP market on May 11, and users must withdraw their funds in advance.
Coinbase will suspend trading for Chrono.tech (TIME) starting May 12.
Ronin will migrate to Ethereum Layer 2 on May 12, and the mainnet will be down for about 10 hours during this period.
Based (BASED) will unlock approximately 50 million tokens on May 11, valued at around $5 million.
Avalanche (AVAX) will unlock approximately 1.67 million tokens on May 12, valued at around $16.5 million.
The US Treasury will initiate a $125 billion quarterly refinancing operation on May 11.
Circle's Q1 financial report (pre-market on May 11).
US April CPI year-on-year: Expectation is 3.7%, previous value 3.3% (May 12, 20:30).

The largest increase among the top 100 cryptocurrencies today: Sui up 19.9%, Sei up 12.9%, Kite up 9.6%, Terra Luna Classic up 8.4%, Venice Token up 8.0%.

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