Original Title: Tom Lee 2026 Investment Core Logic: “Companies Selling Scarce Assets are Crushing the Market”

Original Author: Chris Lee

Tom Lee, one of Wall Street's most accurate bulls and founder of Fundstrat, recently stated that the only core investment keyword for the market in 2026 is "scarcity." He bluntly stated, "Companies selling scarce assets are crushing the market." This seemingly simple statement embodies a complete stock selection logic, macro judgment, and a profound bet on Federal Reserve policy and geopolitical issues.

1. Core Definition and Logic of Scarce Assets

The "scarce assets" defined by Tom Lee are not traditional scarce items like gold or collectibles, but rather **products or services where supply is severely constrained and demand is experiencing explosive growth. This structural mismatch of supply and demand gives sellers strong pricing power, driving excess returns.

He highlighted three major areas of scarcity:

1. AI Computing Power: Companies like NVIDIA, AMD, Intel. Training and inference for AI large models require massive GPUs and acceleration chips, but the capacity expansion of TSMC's advanced process and CoWoS packaging has physical limitations. According to relevant reports, the tight supply chain for AI chips is expected to last at least until the end of 2026.

2. AI Memory (HBM High Bandwidth Memory): Manufacturers like Micron, SanDisk. HBM is a crucial bottleneck in AI servers, where the manufacturing process is complex and yield improvements are slow, and the capacity has already been fully booked by giants like NVIDIA.

3. Energy Infrastructure: Companies like GE Vernova (GEV). The power demand from data centers is exploding, with projections that by 2030, North American data centers will account for 9-10% of total electricity generation (up from just 3-4% in 2025). The delivery cycles for large equipment such as gas turbines and transformers can take 2-3 years, and capacity expansion is extremely slow.

The logical chain is as follows: the demand brought about by the AI revolution is explosive, while physical, technical, and time constraints on the supply side cannot quickly match that demand. This supply-demand imbalance is not a short-term phenomenon but a structural opportunity that spans 2026. Therefore, these companies have high gross margins and strong pricing ability, with performance and stock price showing far beyond the market average. This is also the core strategy of the Granny Shots fund—focusing on "companies selling scarce things." The fund's AUM has surpassed $4 billion, and the capital is voting with its feet.

2. Macroeconomic Background and Practical Trading Framework

Tom Lee emphasized that the market is currently in a "fog of war," with geopolitical risks continuing. However, he observed that oil prices seem to have peaked, and he provided a clear trading framework: when oil prices decline, one should buy assets negatively correlated with oil prices, including the S&P 500, Ethereum, and Mag7 (Magnificent 7).

The logic is: falling oil prices → alleviated inflation pressure → rising expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts → benefiting growth stocks and risk assets. Wars may push oil prices higher, but when oil prices peak and fall back, it becomes a positive signal for purchasing growth stocks. This provides investors with a practical guide for contrarian actions in an uncertain environment.

3. Strong Earnings Reports and Yearly Market Outlook

This quarter's earnings season has shown unusually bright performance: among the companies that have released reports, 87% exceeded expectations, with an exceedance rate of 19%. Tom Lee noted that this is "emerging market level" profit growth occurring in the United States, with AI being the core driving force behind the productivity revolution.

Market Path Judgments:

The S&P 500 has reached the predicted 7,300 points at the beginning of the year, but **now is not the time to sell**.

A "bear market-like" pullback may occur mid-year, driven by either the market testing the new Federal Reserve chairman or extended geopolitical conflicts.

After the pullback, a rebound will come, with the full-year target revised up to at least 7,700 points, maintaining an overall bullish outlook.

He particularly reminds: Mag7, cryptocurrencies, and the software sector have already experienced a bear market-like period, and investors do not need to chase high at 7,300 points, nor panic during pullbacks—pullbacks are good opportunities to increase positions in scarce assets.

4. Theme Ranking and Practical Insights

Tom Lee ranks investment themes as follows:

1. Global Labor Scarcity + AI (Top Priority): An aging population is driving up labor costs, and companies must replace manual labor with AI and automation, which is a structural trend of a decade level.

2. Cybersecurity + Energy Security (Second Priority): Geopolitical tensions prompt countries to increase investment in relevant infrastructure.

3. Seasonal Factors.

The weekly performance of Granny stocks also verifies this framework: leading gainers like Qantas, Google, Caterpillar, Tesla, AMD all align with the scarcity logic; while some short-term pullbacks (like GE Vernova, Sofi) are mainly due to guidance not meeting the market's excessively high expectations, which are normal fluctuations that do not change the long-term trend.

Conclusion: The Investment Code for 2026 is “Scarcity”

Tom Lee's complete logical chain is clear and powerful: AI-driven structural demand + supply constraints = pricing power and excess returns for scarce assets. In the context of macro uncertainty, a peak in oil prices is a signal for growth stocks, mid-year pullbacks are opportunities to increase positions, and the full-year S&P 500 is expected to challenge 7,700 points.

For investors, the real insight is not just to chase gains blindly, but to shift thinking: from “what is rising” to “why it is rising.” Only by seizing companies with constrained supply and exploding demand can continuous excess returns be obtained in 2026. Scarcity is not a concept, but a tangible supply-demand hard constraint—this is the most important investment framework that Tom Lee leaves for the market.

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