Cryptocurrency Market Performance
Currently, the total market value of cryptocurrencies is $2.65 trillion, with BTC accounting for 60.2%, totaling $1.59 trillion. The market value of stablecoins is $324 billion, increasing by 1.12% over the past 7 days, with USDT making up 58.52% of this amount.
CoinMarketCap shows that among the top 200 projects, most have risen while a few have dropped, specifically: BTC has increased by 3.34% over 7 days, ETH has risen by 0.1% over 7 days, SOL has increased by 5.28% over 7 days, TON has surged by 95.28% over 7 days, and ZEC has gained 59.08% over 7 days.
This week, the net inflow for the US Bitcoin spot ETF was $630 million; the net inflow for the US Ethereum spot ETF was $69.9 million.
Market Forecast (May 11 - May 17):
The RSI index is at 55.01 (neutral, down from last week), and the fear and greed index is at 39 (fear), while the altcoin season index is at 36 (neutral).
BTC: $75,000-83,000 (if it cannot recover to $80,000, a potential drop to $75,000 may occur)
ETH: $2,200-2,500 (following BTC)
SOL: $85-100 (more volatility expected)
Risk Warning:
Beware of "Long and Short Liquidation": Currently, the market leverage is high, and any sharp fluctuations in either direction may trigger a series of liquidations. High volatility is expected to persist next week, and it is advisable to reduce contract leverage.
Focus on Key Levels: If BTC stabilizes above $82,000, it is seen as a short-term bullish signal, and opportunities for altcoin recovery can be observed; if BTC falls below $75,000, it may trigger technical selling, so caution is advised.
Macroeconomic Calendar: Pay attention to speeches from Federal Reserve officials and US economic data next week. Any hawkish remarks about interest rate policy may exacerbate market volatility.
Understanding the Present
Bitcoin Strongly Breaks Through $81,000, Hitting Three-Month High
At the beginning of this week, the market saw a favorable opening. On May 5, Bitcoin's price surged in the late night, breaking through the psychological barrier of $80,000, reaching a high of $81,732, marking the highest since January 31, 2026. As of the evening of May 6, Bitcoin further stabilized above $82,000, with a monthly increase of over 20%. This increase is attributed to continued institutional entry through ETFs combined with macro risk aversion demand.
Ethereum and Mainstream Altcoins Rise Collectively
Led by Bitcoin's rally, the cryptocurrency market exhibited a widespread increase. Ethereum (ETH) prices crossed $2,400, while mainstream coins like SOL, XRP, and Dogecoin (DOGE) also saw significant gains. Notably, the anonymous coin ZEC had an exceptionally prominent performance, rising over 32% within 24 hours.
US Stock Crypto Concept Stocks Surge Together
The fervor in the crypto market has translated to US stocks. On May 5, shares of several crypto-related listed companies saw significant increases, with Bullish rising over 19%, and crypto mining companies like Riot Platforms and CleanSpark also increasing by over 5%. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) and Coinbase also recorded notable increases.
Sharp Reversal After Emotional Peak, Bitcoin Drops Below $80,000
After consecutive increases, the market faced a correction towards the end of the week. Starting on the evening of May 7, cryptocurrencies experienced a downturn, with Bitcoin quickly falling below the $80,000 level, retreating to around $79,725. Analysts pointed out that the accumulation of leverage at high positions and concentrated profit-taking selling were the main reasons for this sharp drop.
Intense Bull-Bear Battle, Over 120,000 Liquidations
The drastic fluctuations led to bloodshed in the contract market. During the rally on May 6, over 140,000 positions were liquidated across the market, amounting to $584 million; in the subsequent downturn, over 100,000 positions were also liquidated. The total number of liquidations over the two days exceeded 240,000, with significant occurrences of long and short liquidations.
Soothing Situation in Iran as a Direct Catalyst
The intense volatility in this round of crypto market activities is closely related to geopolitical events. In the news, US President Trump stated on May 6 that the US and Iran were nearing a memorandum of understanding, signaling easing tensions in Iran, and the Strait of Hormuz is expected to reopen. The cooling of this macro risk aversion sentiment has directly triggered Bitcoin's retreat from its highs, as well as related fluctuations in the prices of gold and oil.
US Bitcoin Spot ETF Continues to Attract Investment
Despite price corrections, institutional capital inflow remains strong. Data shows that on May 6 alone, the net inflow for US Bitcoin spot ETF reached $467 million. Reviewing the entire month of April, this type of product saw a net inflow of $1.97 billion, marking the strongest monthly performance since 2026, indicating that traditional financial institutions are still steadily allocating Bitcoin through compliant channels.
Hong Kong Stablecoin Regulation Implemented, Licenses Officially Issued
Significant progress has been made in regulation within the Asia-Pacific region. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has seen its regulations take effect since April 10. This week, the market has continued to digest its impact. Institutions like Anchorpoint Financial and HSBC have obtained stablecoin licenses, marking the establishment of a regulated Hong Kong dollar stablecoin system, regarded as a key infrastructure for institutional capital entering on-chain finance.
Beware of "Strictest Ever" Regulatory Bans
Despite the hot market, the clamor for risk warnings has been rising. In the domestic market, a notification jointly issued by the central bank and eight departments has been emphasized again by the media; this notification is referred to as the "strictest ever" regulatory upgrade, clearly prohibiting the issuance of stablecoins pegged to the Renminbi and related tokenization activities of RWA outside the country. Experts warn investors to be aware of policy compliance red lines.
DeFi Market Continues to Clear, Capital Shifting Towards Safety
The market structure differentiation continues. Following the previous attack on KelpDAO, which resulted in a loss of $292 million and a potential bad debt crisis at Aave, capital has continually flowed out of the decentralized finance (DeFi) market, leading to a substantial decrease in total value locked (TVL), with capital shifting from higher risk DeFi protocols to Bitcoin or isolated-market lending protocols (such as Spark, Morpho).
Macroeconomic Overview
On May 7, the initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 2 were 200,000, expected at 205,000, lower than market expectations. The previous value was revised from 189,000 to 190,000.
On May 8, the US unemployment rate for April was 4.3%, expected at 4.3%.
On May 8, the adjusted non-farm payroll in the US for April was 115,000, expected at 62,000.
On May 8, according to Fed rate observations, the probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged in June is 95.9%, while the probability of a 25 basis points cut is 4.1%.
ETF
According to statistics, from May 4 to May 8, the net inflow of US Bitcoin spot ETF was $630 million; as of May 8, GBTC (Grayscale) recorded a total outflow of $26.263 billion, with current holdings of $12.019 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $65.986 billion. The total market value of US Bitcoin spot ETFs is $109.584 billion.
Net inflow of US Ethereum spot ETF is $6.99 million.
Envisioning the Future
Industry Conferences
The Istanbul Blockchain Week 2026 will be held in Turkey from June 2 to 3.
IVS2026 KYOTO will take place from July 1 to 3, 2026, in Kyoto, Japan.
WebX 2026 will occur from July 13 to 14, 2026, in Tokyo, Japan.
Project Developments
HashKey Exchange will launch a co-branded Visa credit card in partnership with Shanghai Commercial Bank, with registration opening on May 11.
The first independent network upgrade for Base Azul mainnet will be activated on May 13, 2026.
Dmail Network will gradually cease all services, and users must export email content to other platforms by May 15.
Significant Events
On May 12 at 20:30, the US will publish the year-on-year CPI for April before seasonal adjustment.
On May 12 at 20:30, the US will release the month-on-month CPI for April after seasonal adjustment.
On May 14 at 20:30, the US will announce initial jobless claims for the week ending May 9 (in thousands).
Token Unlocking
Starknet (STRK) will unlock 126 million tokens on May 15, worth approximately $7.11 million, accounting for 4.05% of the circulation.
Sei (SEI) will unlock 55.55 million tokens on May 15, valued at approximately $3.64 million, representing 0.95% of the circulation.
Arbitrum (ARB) will unlock 92.65 million tokens on May 16, worth approximately $13.21 million, accounting for 1.71% of the circulation.
ZKsync (ZK) will unlock 172 million tokens on May 17, valued at approximately $3.42 million, representing 2.8% of the circulation.
Solv Protocol (SOLV) will unlock 608 million tokens on May 17, worth approximately $2.77 million, accounting for 17.29% of the circulation.
About Us
Hotcoin Research is the core research institution of the Hotcoin Exchange, dedicated to transforming professional analysis into your practical tools. Through "Weekly Insights" and "In-depth Reports," we analyze market trends for you; using the exclusive column "Selected Hot Coins" (AI + expert screening), we help you identify potential assets and reduce trial-and-error costs. Each week, our researchers will also engage with you through live broadcasts, interpreting hot topics and predicting trends. We believe that warm companionship and professional guidance can help more investors navigate cycles and seize the value opportunities of Web3.
Risk Warning
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investment itself carries risks. We strongly advise investors to make investments based on a complete understanding of these risks and within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of funds.
Website: https://lite.hotcoingex.cc/r/Hotcoinresearch
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