Author: TechFlow

U.S. Stocks: A "just right" jobs report provided the market with what it wanted most

On Friday at 8:30 AM, the Labor Statistics Bureau flipped that trump card: Non-farm payrolls in April added 115,000 jobs, nearly double the median expectation of 62,000.

The market's reaction was immediate. The S&P 500 closed up 0.84% that day, resetting the historical closing record at 7,398.93 points. The Nasdaq jumped 1.71%, closing at 26,247.08 points, marking the first time in financial history that this index closed above 26,000. The Dow barely moved, gaining only 12.19 points to close at 49,609.16, falling just under 400 points short of breaking the 50,000 mark, a "so close but yet so far" status that has lasted for several days.

This week's report is worth an overall review: the S&P 500 rose 2.3% for the week, and the Nasdaq rose 4.5%, both marking the sixth consecutive week of gains, the longest weekly winning streak since 2024. This is a complete recovery from the lows to historical highs that Wall Street achieved three months after the outbreak of the Iran war.

However, the reason why 115,000 brought such joy to the market is not because of its size, but because it falls into that most difficult-to-replicate range, "not too good, not too bad."

Good enough: 115,000 is nearly double the expectation, alleviating the market's most direct concern about "the war destroying the labor market." The unemployment rate remained at 4.3%, without breaking upward. Healthcare added 37,000, transportation and warehousing 30,000, and retail 22,000; the employment pillars on the consumer side have not collapsed.

Not hot enough: Average hourly earnings increased only 0.2% month-over-month and 3.6% year-over-year, both below the expectations of 0.3% and 3.8%. Wage growth is slowing down, which means the wage-inflation spiral is not spinning. The Federal Reserve sees this data, and there is no need to raise interest rates.

Austan Goolsbee's comment on CNBC was the most precise summary of the day: "The labor market has been basically stable for a year to a year and a half." Neither a collapse nor overheating, which is just the state the market needs for the labor market in 2026.

Technology stocks dominated today's gains, with the semiconductor sector continuing to digest rise after AMD +18%, SMCI +25%, and ARM +14% this week, but the overall performance of the Nasdaq shows that large-cap technology stocks are still holding up. Datadog's post-market surge of 30% last night was smoothly realized after today’s opening, and the cybersecurity sector (Datadog, Fortinet, CrowdStrike, Palo Alto) was one of the strongest sub-sectors on Friday, perfectly aligning with the main narrative of Agentic AI: as AI systems become more prevalent, the tools to monitor and protect them become increasingly valuable.

The only hot potato is CoreWeave.

CoreWeave (CRWV) dropped about 11-12% intra-day on Friday, making it the most noticeable counter trend bloodbath in the market today.

From any financial metric, its Q1 report has no issues: revenue of $2.08 billion, a 127% year-over-year increase, surpassing the expected $1.97 billion; revenue backlog nearing $10 billion; Q1 set the strongest new contract quarter ever, with new contract commitments exceeding $40 billion; 2026 full-year revenue guidance of $12-13 billion remains unchanged.

The reason for the drop can be summed up in two words: guidance.

Q2 revenue guidance of $2.45-2.6 billion, with a median of $2.525 billion, is below the Wall Street consensus of $2.69 billion, missing by about 6.5%, which is unforgivable at this valuation level. Meanwhile, the lower limit of the 2026 Capex was raised from $30 billion to $31 billion due to "component price increases." Like ARM, the inflation in the semiconductor supply chain is systematically eroding the cost side of AI infrastructure companies. Losses widened to $740 million, more than doubling from last year's $315 million.

However, what truly nailed this performance report today was an SEC disclosure: CEO Mike Intrator sold about 307,000 shares through a pre-scheduled 10b5-1 trading plan on May 5 (two days before the earnings report), totaling about $39 million. At the same time, EVP Chen Goldberg sold 19,222 shares.

Both transactions were within compliance frameworks. The existence of the 10b5-1 plan means these sales were arranged months ago and are unrelated to the timing of the earnings report. But the market does not care about these technical details; it only sees one picture: the CEO turned $39 million worth of stock into cash before the earnings report was released, and then the company announced guidance below expectations. The market's reaction to this timing is always to sell first and think later.

CEO Intrator himself remained calm about this drop, stating in a Reuters interview, "I do not look at how the market is evaluating me today, whether it's up or down. I'm building the company." Whether this statement is sincere can only be answered by time.

However, several key figures from CoreWeave deserve to be separately recorded and should not be overshadowed by today's -12%: $99 billion in backlog, 75% of the 2027 $30 billion annual revenue guidance has already locked contracts, and 2026 capacity is "basically sold out." CFO Nitin Agrawal's exact words were: "We have nearly sold out our capacity for 2026." This is not a company whose business is shrinking; this is a company that spends money faster than it receives it, and in the AI infrastructure industry, that just might be the correct strategy.

Oil Prices: Below $100, the 13 million barrel gap in Hormuz is still left unfilled

Brent closed near $97-99, WTI in the $91-94 range, generally maintaining below $100.

The impact of overnight clashes has been digested during the day, and the market has learned a form of "discount pricing" for news from the Iranian battlefield: every time a small-scale conflict occurs, it jumps up first and then falls back once it confirms there is no escalation. This discount rate has been gradually increasing as the war continues.

JPMorgan's analysis report this week is worth quoting in full: The flow through the Strait of Hormuz is now only at 4% of normal levels, with a daily shortfall of about 13 million barrels of crude oil. This is not a level of "tightening supply;" it's a level of "almost a complete cutoff." JPMorgan economists expect that as oil prices remain high, consumers will begin to adjust their behavior, reducing energy consumption, meaning "demand destruction" begins to occur, which is the last mechanism for oil prices to self-regulate, and the most painful one.

When demand destruction becomes the way to balance supply and demand, what is being destroyed is not the revenue of energy companies, but the quality of life of average American households. The Michigan consumer confidence reading of 55.2 has already been telling the market this.

Cryptocurrency: $80K regained, Bitcoin has exceeded expectations for the third consecutive month

May 8 was the third time in a week that Bitcoin experienced the drama of "going in and out" at the $80,000 threshold.

Overnight clashes (the U.S. and Iran clashing again near Hormuz) triggered about $300 million in futures liquidations, with Bitcoin dropping from an opening of $80,345 to a low of $79,174, falling back below $80,000. However, the non-farm data released in the morning, with a significantly better-than-expected 115,000, along with lower wage growth expectations reigniting expectations for interest rate cuts, led to a collective rebound in risk assets, and Bitcoin quickly recovered to around $80,500, closing further up at the $81,000-81,500 range along with the Nasdaq's surge.

In addition, Coinbase experienced a system outage for several hours today due to AWS infrastructure issues that led to trading disruptions, later issuing a statement claiming full restoration and that an investigation would be launched. On the most active day of trading following the non-farm report, an exchange outage was the most embarrassing technical incident today.

CoinDesk provided a conclusion from the weekly perspective: Bitcoin closed at $76,300 in April, completing what Fundstrat's Tom Lee described last night at the Consensus 2026 conference as a "second consecutive month of gains." If it closes above $76,000 in May, it will mark three consecutive months of gains, which is the threshold he defines as "the end of the crypto winter." The current quote far exceeds this line.

OTC desk data provided the most important structural evidence of this wave of increase: the change in OTC balances over the past 30 days shifted from +25,300 BTC (when Bitcoin was around $60,000 in early February) to about -25,000 BTC, meaning that the large buyers who couldn't sell near $60,000 are now quietly moving chips away from the market near $80,000. Supply is decreasing, not because retail investors are not selling, but because institutions are continuing to absorb.

The last technical wall is still there: $81,486 is the average cost basis for short-term holders, $82,228 is the 200-day moving average, and $83,700 is the average holding cost for spot ETF holders. These three numbers, from bottom to top, form Bitcoin's current densest resistance zone. Breaking through them would mark the beginning of a structural bull market; returning would be a round-trip ticket for the next trial at $75,000.

Today's Summary: Non-farm payrolls gave the best finish for this week, but Michigan confidence tells you where the cost lies

On May 8, a "just right" jobs report capped off the most beautiful week of this rebound.

U.S. Stocks: The S&P 500 closed at 7,398.93 (+0.84%), and the Nasdaq closed above 26,000 for the first time at 26,247.08 (+1.71%). The Dow was nearly flat, absent from today's tech-driven rise. The S&P rose +2.3% for the week, the Nasdaq +4.5%, marking six consecutive weeks of gains, the longest winning streak since 2024. CoreWeave fell about 12% (Q2 guidance below expectations + insider selling $39 million before earnings), Datadog continued its after-hours rise.

Non-farm: April added 115,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the expected 62,000; the unemployment rate is 4.3%; hourly wages +0.2%/+3.6% are all below expectations, Goldilocks data, strong enough to prevent market panic, weak enough not to give the Fed a reason to raise rates. The technology/information sector -13,000, signals AI’s restructuring of employment remains ongoing.

Oil Prices/Gold: Brent $97-99, WTI $91-94, maintaining below $100. JPMorgan: Hormuz is missing 13 million barrels daily; demand destruction is beginning to become the only way for the market to balance. Gold stays around $4,717-4,720.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin experienced overnight clashes, dropping below $80,000, before rebounding post-non-farm to $81,000-81,500 in a complete intra-day back and forth, maintaining above $80K. The $81,486/$82,228/$83,700 triple resistance zone is the most important price coordinates for the next stage. Coinbase faced AWS outages leading to hours of trading interruptions.

Next week’s key calendar: Tuesday CPI data (April inflation), Wednesday PPI. Whether inflation will significantly cool down due to falling oil prices is the most crucial data set determining whether the Fed can alter its stance at the June 17 meeting (Warsh's first chair). If CPI deflates more than expected, expectations for rate cuts reignite, and the current historical highs have space above; if inflation remains stubborn, Warsh's first meeting could become a candidate for a "surprise rate hike."

At least for today, one thing is certain: the market has proven with six weeks of consecutive gains, that even under the combined pressure of war, Brent at $126, Powell's departure, and MAG4 Capex of $725 billion, AI-driven profitability remains the most solid foundation at this valuation level. And that 13 million barrels per day shortfall is a crack beneath the foundation that has yet to be addressed.