This year, the second half of BTC will mainly revolve around volatility.

Written by: Kimi, GPT, Claude, and DeepSeek

Edited by: Maher, Foresight News

Recently, after BTC briefly returned to 80,000 dollars, market enthusiasm rekindled. How will Bitcoin perform in the second half of this year? The four AI entities have provided their insights and analyses.

Kimi's View: Bitcoin Might Struggle to Break Previous Highs in the Second Half of 2026

The baseline scenario is: from Q2 to Q3 of 2026, BTC will maintain a wide range of fluctuations in the 80,000 to 95,000 dollar range. During this time, it may briefly attempt to test 100,000 dollars due to event catalysts (such as easing tensions in the Middle East or a major institution announcing a position), but it will be unable to hold. Entering Q4, with the cycle's end confirmed, the acceleration of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction, and the seasonal withdrawal of speculative funds, prices will slowly retreat to the 70,000 to 75,000 dollar range.

In a downside risk scenario, if Warsh initiates unexpected tightening policies after taking office, or if signals of a global economic recession lead to risk asset sell-offs, BTC may test 65,000 to 68,000 dollars by the end of the year—this is precisely at the upper edge of the long-term fluctuation platform formed after the 2024 halving and is also the bearish support range indicated by Jurrien Timmer.

Of course, the market always has reflexivity. If spot demand unexpectedly turns positive in Q2, the Federal Reserve is forced to cut interest rates early due to economic weakness, or the U.S. passes bills such as the CLARITY Act releasing significant regulatory benefits, BTC still has the potential to surge to 110,000 to 120,000 dollars. However, even so, breaking through the previous high of 126,198 dollars would require too many extreme conditions to be simultaneously met, which is not convincing in terms of probability.

For traders, the second half of 2026 should not hold onto the obsession of "breaking the previous high." A more pragmatic strategy is to gradually reduce risk exposure above 85,000 dollars, while defending the core position in the strong support area around 70,000 dollars. The long-term value of Bitcoin remains valid, but in this cycle, time does not favor those eager to reach new highs.

GPT-5.4: BTC Will Experience Multiple Attempts and Retracements This Year, Leading to a Longer Period of High-Range Fluctuations

For Bitcoin in the second half of 2026, the question is not just "Can it achieve new highs?" More importantly: if it cannot surpass previous highs in the second half of 2026, how will Bitcoin proceed? My judgment is that breaking past the previous highs is not impossible, but it resembles an optimistic scenario rather than the baseline scenario. A more realistic path is several attempts, repeated retracements, followed by a longer period of high-range fluctuations.

If Bitcoin cannot break past previous highs in the second half of 2026, it is likely to unfold as follows:

The first step involves repeated testing, but it will be hard to pass all at once. The price may repeatedly surge towards 90,000 dollars, 100,000 dollars, or even higher regions, but each time approaching the previous high, it will face increasing selling pressure from profit-taking, liquidation, and institutional repositioning.

The second step will involve high-range fluctuations, and the duration may be longer than most expect. The real danger is not a decline, but rather the sideways movement. A downturn might scare some away, while a sideways trend can wear down more people's patience. If new funds do not keep up, the price is likely to oscillate between 80,000 dollars and the previous high range, using time to digest the overhead positions.

The third step is to select a direction again. If by the end of 2026 or early 2027, the interest rate environment becomes more favorable and ETF funds regain strength, the previous fluctuation zone will serve as a power accumulation zone for the next round of breakthroughs; if macro data continues to fluctuate and the expectations for interest rate cuts retreat further, Bitcoin may increasingly resemble a growth asset within the U.S. stock market, capable of both rising and falling, but no longer easily experiencing that kind of emotion-driven straight-line top.

In a sense, this more mature and more grinding sideways action may well be a necessary stage for Bitcoin moving from an emotional asset to a mainstream allocation asset.

Claude: No More Vertical Movements for BTC, Breaking Previous Highs Will Have to Wait Until 2027

The Federal Reserve has eight months left, five meetings, and possibly one interest rate cut. ETFs are experiencing successive net inflows, but it takes time to accumulate momentum. Long-term holders are holding onto 80% of the supply without letting go. The miners' cost creates an invisible floor around 77,000 dollars.

When all these elements come together, the most likely narrative for the second half of the year is one of wide-range fluctuations. The lower end consists of the miners' cost zone at 70,000 to 75,000 dollars, while the upper end faces supply pressure in the 95,000 to 110,000 dollar range. The previous high of 126,210 dollars stands like a delayed horizontal line, awaiting some signing or interest rate cut in 2027, or a tidal wave of capital.

On October 6 of last year, Bitcoin first stood at 120,000 dollars. That time was fueled by retail frenzy, accelerated ETFs, macroeconomic easing, and a political honeymoon all pushing the price up. To replicate that scene in the second half of the year, all those conditions need to come together again. But now, they are scattered across different rooms: some have yet to return, while others have already left.

The signing of sovereign buyers might appear one morning on Bloomberg terminals. But at that moment, the first to receive that news will still be those whales already stationed at the bottom.

DeepSeek: In the Second Half of 2026, the Transfer and Accumulation of Chips Will Prepare for the Next Major Bull Wave

The core chips of the bullish camp are institutions and ETFs. In April, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF net inflows reached 2.44 billion dollars, making it the strongest month of the year; in May, the momentum continued, with a single-day net inflow of 629.8 million dollars on the 1st, and again recording 467.35 million dollars on the 5th. The cumulative net inflow of all spot ETFs has reached 59.3 billion dollars, with assets under management of 106.4 billion dollars, accounting for approximately 6.7% of Bitcoin's total market value. Meanwhile, long-term holders have increased their holdings by approximately 331,000 BTC over the past 30 days. Institutional target prices are generally seen above 150,000 dollars, and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has reaffirmed a target price of 125,000 dollars, believing that the expansion of fiat liquidity is the key driving force.

The bearish camp, on the other hand, holds the cyclical hammer and faces macro headwinds. After the halving in April 2024, Bitcoin is expected to peak in 2025, fully in line with the rhythm of "peaking 9-18 months after the halving." 2026 is precisely a year of adjustment according to historical patterns. Kaiko Research points out that a drop of about 50% from the ATH still qualifies as a typical cyclical correction. Veteran analyst Peter Brandt bluntly states that new highs will not appear in 2026, with a bottom potentially waiting for the second quarter of 2027. On the macro front, the Federal Reserve paused rate cuts in January, maintaining the benchmark rate at 3.5%-3.75%, and the market has priced in over a 50% probability of a rate hike this year. Forecasting market Polymarket shows that the chance of Bitcoin returning to 120,000 dollars in 2026 is only 15%.

The real deep game lies in whether the ETF and institutional funds have permanently rewritten the four-year cycle. ETFs currently hold about 12% of the Bitcoin circulating supply, and they are structurally tightening the tradable chips. If demand continues, the cyclical bottom may be "raised," and historical deep crashes may no longer reoccur. Scaramucci's interpretation is thought-provoking: "When you believe in the cycle, you create a self-fulfilling prophecy."

If the previous highs cannot be broken in the second half of the year, a more probable scenario is wide-range fluctuations with a gradually ascending midpoint. Professor Carol Alexander from Sussex University predicts that BTC will operate with high volatility in the 75,000 - 150,000 dollar range, with the focus around 110,000 dollars. The theoretical bottom of the four-year cycle is at 40,000 - 50,000 dollars, while the power law model shows that the low trajectory has risen to 60,000 dollars by mid-2026 and 70,000 dollars by year-end, having already been validated by the February low. This indicates that even if adjustments continue, the medium- to long-term bottom support is likely to remain above 60,000 - 70,000 dollars. From a policy perspective, the SEC and CFTC jointly released token classification guidelines in April and planned to promote "innovation exemptions," clarifying regulations also provide an additional buffer for the market.

In summary, Bitcoin is likely to complete chip transfer and accumulation within the wide range of 60,000 - 120,000 dollars in the second half of 2026, preparing for the next major bull wave. Regardless of whether it can set new highs, the trend towards market institutionalization and compliance has already become a settled fact.