The US stock market and cryptocurrency are currently the two asset classes most关注ed by global investors. However, it is rare for someone to establish a mature trading system in both markets.

Today, we invite Frank @qinbafrank, a seasoned investor who entered the US stock market in 2013. He was previously an internet product manager, later transitioned to a VC partner, and entered the cryptocurrency market in 2017. Having experienced the ICO boom, endured deep bear markets and multiple cycles of bull and bear, he has built a unique cross-market investment framework between the US stock market and the crypto space.

From Internet Product Manager to Investor: The First Bucket of Gold in the Internet Circle

Frank's investment journey began in the internet industry. Around 2013, he was still working as a product manager at an internet company. Friends around him started talking about US stocks—some had bought 360 stock early, while others heavily invested in Tesla when it went public in 2012, making a lot of money. This atmosphere inspired him: “People in the internet field have a natural advantage in tech stocks. Being in the internet industry, we have a perception of products and operations, allowing us to understand what a company is doing and whether it’s performing well. At the same time, the environment of investing in internet company stocks is also very strong.”

With this confidence, he bought his first stock—Facebook. The logic was clear: having acquired Instagram and WhatsApp, this company is undoubtedly the leader in the social sector. Frank also invested in “NVIDIA at a $3 cost,” but he sold out after tripling his investment, leaving him with a deep impression of regret for not having a bigger perspective.

From 2013 to 2015, Frank accumulated his first bucket of gold in his investment career. However, he admitted that during that period, he was more "benefiting from the dividends of the era"—internet practitioners flocking to tech stocks had the favorable conditions of timing and location. It wasn't until after 2015 to 2017 that he truly built a systematic perception of industry investment.

The Encounter with Crypto: Eliminating Prejudice, Entering the Market, and Experiencing Deep Bear Markets

Later, Frank transformed from product manager to entrepreneur and primary investor. A startup partner introduced him to Bitcoin, blockchain, and the decentralized world, and he had friends working on decentralized social networking crypto startup projects. This prompted him to seriously consider a question: “Is the internet's dividend really fading?”

In the second half of 2017, Frank eliminated his prejudice against cryptocurrencies and began to enter the crypto industry, catching the tail end of the ICO boom and being motivated by the potential for profit. He invested in some private placements and ICO projects and encouraged a few friends who were struggling in internet entrepreneurship to join the crypto sector. He bought $10,000 worth of Bitcoin and $1,000 worth of Ethereum.

However, in 2018, the deep bear market arrived. Frank bluntly stated, “the drop was severe,” but due to his recognition of the underlying technology—peer-to-peer payment and decentralization, he continued to stay and engage in compounding within the crypto industry.

The Investment Principles Behind Precise Predictions in the US Stock Market: Industry Fundamentals + Macro Analysis

The turning point in Frank's investment framework truly occurred during the pandemic in 2020. The market experienced severe fluctuations, and he suddenly realized: his past knowledge of macroeconomics was almost non-existent. Fiscal policy, monetary policy, interest rate cycles… these variables were barely on his radar, yet their impact on the pricing of stocks and cryptocurrencies was far deeper than he had imagined. “During the pandemic, I spent a lot of time reading books on public finance and monetary finance, which gradually gave me a more holistic understanding of macroeconomics.”

His enhanced macro awareness, combined with his previous industry investment system, formed his own investment framework for the US stock market: “The primary factor for US stocks is industry fundamentals, and the secondary factor is macro.”

This ranking directly determined his operational logic: during small-level adjustments, he would only reduce positions in stocks that had good narratives but weak fundamentals, remaining inactive on high-quality growth stocks; only upon judging intermediate and large-level adjustments would he consider adjusting positions in high-quality growth stocks. He also emphasized the difference between the US stock market and crypto: “The overall crypto market moves up and down with Bitcoin, but the logic of individual US stocks is very strong. Some fall first, others later, and some may have fallen before the market is positioned. You cannot operate individual stocks solely by looking at the broader market; you must consider the specific situation.”

In terms of fundamental stock selection, his analysis framework is divided into two levels. Performance aspect, focusing on tracking quarterly revenue, profit, EPS growth, and whether future guidance can continue to exceed expectations. Business aspect, he places more emphasis on the company's position within the industry landscape. “Sometimes P/E ratios are not always effective; you have to look at business strategy, competitive landscape—does the company hold a core position or is it in a vulnerable position? This determines whether it has scarcity and can sustain high premiums.”

For instance, at the end of 2024, he started publicly recommending Palantir (PLTR) on Twitter, with a purchase cost in the three to four hundred billion market capitalization range, positioning it as “Lockheed Martin of the AI era.” The logic was a direct application of the framework mentioned above: “PLTR has served the US military for over a decade and is the military’s only big data supplier, making it highly irreplaceable. Irreplaceability becomes scarcity, and scarcity supports high premiums.”

On the macro level, his method is to sort out the factors influencing the macro environment at each stage and their weights. “The macro framework is not fixed; the main contradictions at each stage differ. In 2025, the focus will be on Trump’s policies; in 2026, geopolitics like the Iran situation and government efficiency reforms, as well as the Federal Reserve's stance.”

Frank repeatedly emphasizes: “The sense of cycles is not prediction, but a perception of probability distribution.” His judgment logic regarding cycles is precisely the application of the macro framework mentioned above.

In January 2025, he made a judgment: the US stock market would face adjustments. He systematically sorted out the most critical macro variables at the time—the uncertainty of Trump’s policies, pressure from high valuations, and the attitude of the Federal Reserve. Trump's policies were the largest influencing factor. As he predicted, due to the dual impacts of deep seek and tariffs, the US stock market began intermediate adjustments from February, with the NASDAQ experiencing a maximum drop of 20% and the S&P falling by 18%.

At the beginning of 2026, he continued to warn of the “spring robbery market,” accurately predicting that the NASDAQ would pull back by 15%. The core logic had two points: whether the massive capital expenditure of big tech companies could truly be converted into profits; and the rising geopolitical risks brought about by the Iran conflict.

Why Trade US Stocks and Crypto on Bitget

When asked about the decision to trade US stocks on Bitget, Frank’s response was straightforward.

“Since last year’s second half, I have written several tweets about the trend of tokenization in the crypto circle, which is very obvious. Bitget is the most proactive platform embracing this trend of security tokenization.”

For users who are active in both the crypto and US stock markets, Bitget's US stock functionality provides a new choice beyond traditional brokerages. “The deposit is very fast; unlike brokerages that take a day or even several days for fund transfers and withdrawals, funding efficiency is extremely important for those operating in two markets simultaneously.”

He also observed a deeper trend: as institutional funds and ETFs continue to flow in, the boundaries between the crypto market and traditional financial markets are becoming blurred, and the macro linkage between the two markets is becoming stronger. Being able to view both markets simultaneously in one place is inherently valuable.

Frank’s Investment Q&A: Lessons Learned, Advice for Newcomers, and Future Opportunities

What were some of the most painful experiences in your investment career?

The most heart-wrenching was in 2022. That year, I predicted the arrival of a gray rhino—if oil prices and inflation could not be contained, the US stock market would face a slight collapse, while the crypto space would face a major collapse. I saw the risks, started to reduce positions, but did not liquidate. I should have liquidated, but in reality, I only reduced positions, and the remaining positions suffered significant drawdowns.

Because at my core, I am a trend investor, not a trader. Traders have very good discipline and risk control, reacting immediately when risk signals emerge. But my approach is to slowly buy at the bottom and gradually withdraw at the top. The problem with this method is that, although I saw the risks and hedged some positions, the remaining positions still faced considerable drawdowns.

In 2016, I also paid tuition in the US stock market, trading a Chinese concept advertising stock that I thought had good performance, only to find it plummeting 40% in one or two trading days after it was exposed to "bullying customers." There were also the losses incurred in 2019 and 2020 from investing heavily in various early-stage projects in the crypto space, which were blood losses that could not be recovered.

What advice do you have for newcomers looking to invest in both the US stock and crypto markets?

First, strengthen your understanding of macroeconomic factors. From Japan's interest rate hikes in 2024 to the tariff wars in 2025 and the recent Iranian situation, macroeconomic-induced market fluctuations are becoming more frequent and can even alter the pricing models of certain assets.

Second, abandon the idea of making quick money. The opportunities to make quick money in the crypto circle are decreasing; the lifespans of meme coins are extremely short, and the altcoin seasons may not necessarily come; many assets have short survival cycles. Look for certainty in assets over the long term, identifying which assets can last three or five years. In the US stock market, seek targets with strong fundamentals, consistent growth, solid business layouts, and scarcity.

Third, pay attention to position management and be cautious with leverage. Especially since newcomers have yet to develop their own trading systems, leveraging carries significant risks.

Which US stock sectors are worth关注 this year?

First, the space economy. Space X's IPO could be the largest in recent years; Musk and Jensen Huang have both discussed plans for building a space data center, and the competition for space resources among countries is accelerating, leaving significant room for imagination in this sector.

Second, emerging market index ETFs. Recently, the hot storage sector, led by South Korea's Samsung and SK Hynix, has driven up the Korean index. Opportunities where industry prosperity spills over into specific markets are worth exploring in emerging market ETFs.

Third, the energy sector. Ongoing geopolitical conflicts and escalating competition among different countries for resources will continue to drive the revaluation of energy assets.