Author: Deep Tide TechFlow

U.S. Stocks: The First Day of Breathing After a Historic High

On Thursday, the market woke up from Wednesday's revelry, realizing a page had yet to be signed.

The S&P 500 fell 0.38% to 7,337.02, the Nasdaq dropped 0.13% to 25,806.20, and the Dow Jones lost 313.62 points (-0.63%), closing at 49,597.17. The Russell 2000 fell 1.74%, marking the largest decline among the four major indices as small-cap stocks became the primary targets for profit-taking on the first day after hitting a historic high.

The drop itself was not large, but directionally indicated one thing: the "peace premium" from Wednesday had already been partially given back.

The trigger came from Iran. On Thursday morning, a senior Iranian official stated in an interview with The Wall Street Journal that the U.S. could not reopen the Strait of Hormuz with "unrealistic proposals," and Iran would not allow the U.S. to withdraw without paying war reparations. This statement directly undermined the narrative that led to the sharp drop in oil prices on Wednesday. Brent crude continued to decline that day, settling at $97.93, down 3.34%, while WTI settled at $91.73, down 3.52%, keeping below $100 for two consecutive days, but the exact timeline of the peace process remained uncertain.

On the same day, good news and bad news occurred simultaneously. Iran simultaneously announced that it was reviewing a 14-point proposal submitted by the U.S. and predicted that a formal response would be provided through a Pakistani intermediary. This signals that the negotiations have not completely ceased, but there is a significant distance between "under review" and "reached an agreement."

After Thursday's close, a small-scale skirmish occurred again: three U.S. destroyers traversed the Strait of Hormuz and were attacked by Iran, with U.S. forces launching a defensive counterattack immediately. Both sides maintained differing narratives, with the U.S. Central Command stating it was "an unprovoked attack by Iran," while Iran claimed it was a response to U.S. "reckless behavior." No casualties were reported, but WTI futures surged roughly 2% that night, returning above $93, while Brent re-crossed $100.

The $27 drop in oil prices from Wednesday is now being negotiated back little by little.

The semiconductor sector took a collective breather today. The SOX index retreated slightly, AMD digested the gains from the past two days, and Nvidia and Intel both made slight adjustments. After Wedbush commented yesterday that "CPU stole the headlines," the market took a day to price in this narrative. This is not a trend termination; it is a normal technical consolidation. After all, the SOX index has rebounded more than 50% since its low in March, and any sector at this level needs to take a breather.

The hardest-hit name today was ARM.

The Wall of ARM: Explosive Demand, But Not Enough Wafers

ARM Holdings released its Q4 financial report after the market closed on Wednesday, with both revenue and profit surpassing expectations. Large customer orders for the AGI CPU (confirmed by Meta, OpenAI) appeared favorable. The stock price initially surged in pre-market trading but quickly turned downward after the opening, ultimately closing down 7.3% for the day.

The reason can be summed up in one sentence: ARM admitted on the conference call that the new $1 billion demand from AGI CPUs currently lacks sufficient wafer production capacity to meet it.

This is the most real wall for the entire AI chip industry; the issue isn't with demand, but supply not keeping up. TSMC's advanced process capacity is already fully booked for 2026, with orders from Nvidia, AMD, and Apple occupying the top spots, while ARM's newly introduced AGI CPUs need to squeeze space in an already saturated capacity distribution system. The anxiety revealed during the call was: "We know where the money is, but we can't secure that much capacity this year."

This is also why Apple's negotiations with Intel over chip manufacturing are worth continued attention, as Samsung and Intel's advanced processes are becoming some of the few options outside TSMC that can handle large orders. The capacity bottleneck in the semiconductor industry has shifted from "insufficient demand" in previous cycles to a new "supply scarcity" in this round of AI Capex, representing a fundamental structural change in the industry.

McDonald's (MCD) was a rare bright spot on Thursday. Q1 earnings per share were $2.83, exceeding expectations of $2.75. Global same-store sales grew by 3.8%, and U.S. same-store sales recorded growth for the fourth consecutive quarter, reaching 3.9%. CFO Ian Borden stated something noteworthy during the conference call: "Low-income consumers are indeed under pressure, but they still choose McDonald's, which is why we are striving to prove that we offer value for money." This statement is a snapshot of the U.S. consumption landscape in 2026: a gas price of $4.53 per gallon is pushing the most vulnerable consumer groups towards the cheapest options.

After Thursday's close, two earnings reports moved in starkly different directions.

Datadog (DDOG) was the biggest positive surprise of the day: Q1 revenue and profits both surpassed expectations, with full-year guidance significantly raised to $4.3-4.34 billion, far exceeding analysts' consensus of $4.09 billion. The stock price soared over 30% in after-hours trading, marking its largest single-day gain in six years. The logic behind Datadog is clear: cloud monitoring and AI security are becoming non-optional line items in every enterprise's Capex plan. As AI systems become increasingly numerous and complex, the tools to monitor them are profitability stepping in even before AI itself.

Coinbase (COIN) was this day’s largest negative surprise: posting a net loss in Q1, largely due to the significant decline of the crypto market during the quarter, resulting in decreased trading volume and sharply reduced fee income. This is a bitter irony behind today’s Bitcoin行情: on-chain Bitcoin has risen to $82,000, but the exchange's Q1 ledger recorded that darkest period: a bottom of $62,000, three months of sideways movement, with institutions buying continuously while retail investors kept exiting during a silent quarter.

Oil Prices and Gold: Is $97.93 a Temporary Low or a Trend Reversal?

Brent closed below $100 for two consecutive days, giving the market a sense that "the peace deal has been successfully completed halfway." But the skirmish on Thursday night cast a doubt on this sentiment.

JPMorgan analysts provided the most specific supply loss figures this week so far: closure of the Strait of Hormuz leads to a global daily loss of approximately 13 million barrels of oil supply. This figure accounts for about 12-13% of daily global demand. U.S. Energy Department inventory data shows that the pace of releases from the strategic reserve is accelerating, trying to hedge some of the domestic market impacts, but this is a weapon of attrition, not a sustained solution.

Gold maintained around $4,718-4,720 on Thursday, with a slight pullback but still holding strong above $4,700. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield nudged slightly up to 4.37%, as the market oscillated between "peace expectations → rate cut expectations" and "ongoing skirmishes → inflation concerns."

Cryptocurrency: $80K Holds Firm, But $81,486 is the Real Battleground

On Thursday, Bitcoin retreated from a previous high of $82,000 and, following statements from Iranian officials and news of the nighttime skirmish, fell to around $80,300 during the day, closing in the range of $80,500-80,800, with a 24-hour decline of about 1.5%-2%.

$80,000 held firm.

However, both CoinGecko's on-chain analysis data and CryptoQuant's report point to the same position: $81,486, which is the average holding cost for short-term holders of Bitcoin over the past 155 days. Historically, this price point serves as a watershed between bull and bear markets. Closing above it means that short-term holders are generally in profit, reducing sell pressure; falling below it would lead to a collective stop-loss from short-term holders. Additionally, the 200-day moving average at $82,228 forms the densest resistance range for Bitcoin at present.

Ethereum reported around $2,350-2,380 that day, Solana around $84, with major coins slightly pulling back in tandem with Bitcoin. The global cryptocurrency market cap ranged between $2.67-2.70 trillion, with the fear and greed index maintaining around 55 (neutral to optimistic), showing significant improvement from last week’s panic zone below 40.

Today also saw a signal overlooked by the market: Airbnb’s post-market financial report indicated "particularly strong" booking volume in Q1, with its full-year revenue forecast raised, but simultaneously pointed out that the Middle Eastern market is suppressed due to conflicts. This serves as a direct verification of the "peace dividend" logic at the most micro level: war affects not just oil prices but also people's willingness to travel and actual booking behaviors globally. When the war ultimately ends, this suppressed demand will become a driving force for consumption rebound.

Today's Summary: A Brief Pullback, Waiting for Non-Farm Payrolls to Reveal the Last Card of the Week

On May 7, the market underwent a technical consolidation after reaching a historic high, with a mild direction, but the underlying logic is quietly changing.

U.S. Stocks: The S&P 500 closed at 7,337.02 (-0.38%), Nasdaq at 25,806.20 (-0.13%), Dow Jones fell 313 points (-0.63%), Russell 2000 dropped 1.74% as profit-taking dominated without substantive negative news. ARM fell 7.3% (AGI CPU supply bottleneck), McDonald's rose 3.3% (low-income consumers still eating McSpicy Chicken Burgers). After-hours, Datadog surged 30% (full-year guidance significantly raised), while Coinbase reported losses (crypto market sluggish in Q1).

Oil Prices/Gold: Brent closed at $97.93, WTI at $91.73, remaining below $100 for two days, but futures rebounded after the nighttime skirmish, bringing Brent back above $100. Iran is "reviewing" the 14-point proposal while stating "the U.S. must pay reparations." Gold stays at $4,718.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin retreated from $82,000 to close between $80,500-80,800, with $80,000 holding firm. $81,486 (short-term holder cost basis) is the most critical technical resistance level, crossing it suggests a bullish signal, failing to hold means a potential short-term peak.

Today, there is only one question: what will the non-farm payroll data be?

The market expects an increase of 55,000 jobs in April, with an unemployment rate of 4.5%. If the numbers are close to expected, the drag of the Iranian conflict on the labor market will be clearly confirmed, unexpectedly opening space for the Fed's policy; weak employment + inflation stabilizing → rate cut expectations may reignite, which would be positive for stocks and Bitcoin. If the numbers surprise strongly (e.g., exceeding 100,000), it indicates the labor market's resilience remains, with the Fed likely to hold steady or even consider raising rates, putting pressure on high valuation sectors.

Two outcomes, the market's reactions would be entirely different. Today's non-farm data is the last card of the week.