Author: ShenChao TechFlow

U.S. Stocks: On this day, everyone stepped on the gas in the same direction

On Wednesday, something happened on Wall Street that made people want to take a picture to commemorate it: the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow, and Russell 2000, all four major indices set historic closing highs on the same day.

The S&P 500 rose 1.46%, setting a new record at 7,365.12 points. The Nasdaq surged 2.02%, closing at 25,838.94 points, marking the first time in history that it closed at this position. The Dow jumped 612.34 points (+1.24%), closing at 49,910.59 points, just 90 points away from the 50,000 integer mark. The Russell 2000 gained 1.52% to 2,888.24, with small-cap stocks also reaching historic highs.

On this day, two logs were ignited simultaneously: one was the "piece of paper," the other was AMD.

First, let’s talk about that piece of paper.

On Wednesday morning, Axios cited two U.S. officials saying that the White House believes a "one-page memorandum" framework on ending the war with Iran is imminent, including pausing nuclear enrichment, halting hostilities, and setting a framework for more complex nuclear negotiations in the future. Brent crude oil dropped over 11% within 30 minutes of the news, trading below $100/barrel for the first time in exactly ten weeks since the outbreak of the war. WTI hit a low of $91 during the day, eventually closing at $91.54, down 10.5%. Brent closed at $99.12, down 9.8%, wiping out a week's worth of war premium.

The plunge in oil prices gave the stock market an adrenaline rush. Inflation expectations cooled immediately, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield falling about 7 basis points to 4.35%, and the market's bets on the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in June quickly retreated. A sentiment called "peace dividend" spread across the trading desk, and those consumer, industrial, and small-cap stocks that had been suppressed by high oil prices began to rally collectively, with the Russell 2000 even outperforming the Nasdaq on that day.

However, Trump's remarks in the afternoon caused some of the optimism to retract: "This is a ‘maybe’, a huge assumption that Iran will agree to our terms." While not denying negotiations, he also did not confirm the agreement. This is the space management that this president excels at: maintaining uncertainty, allowing the market to sustain the maximum trading enthusiasm between hope and doubt.

The energy sector fell more than 4% on the day, the only significantly negative area, resembling a striking red blot on a map of green gains, with the losses for oil companies representing the market’s premature celebration of the war's end.

Chip Parade: AMD Ignited, SMCI Supported, ARM Continues to Rise After Hours

If the "one-page paper" was the macro trigger of the day, AMD was the bomb that was thrown on the micro side.

AMD rose 15% after hours the previous night, continued to climb on Wednesday, ultimately closing up 17.77%. CEO Lisa Su appeared on CNBC to personally explain why the Q2 guidance was raised significantly: not due to accelerating demand for data center GPUs, but because of Agentic AI bringing explosive demand for server CPUs. The term she used was "tremendous demand." This is a new key term in this round of AI narrative; the way AI agents consume computation is completely different from ordinary LLM reasoning, requiring continuous operation and parallel execution, demanding CPUs rather than simply GPUs. AMD just happens to have the most ammunition in the CPU track.

Wedbush analysts stated more directly: "CPUs stole the headlines today." This is one of the most profound industry signals in this earnings season: AI is no longer just Nvidia's narrative, the spectrum of computing demand is widening.

Supermicro (SMCI) rose 24.5% that day, with the AI server manufacturer exceeding expectations, significantly strengthening guidance, creating a dual-track validation of "software-defined hardware demand" alongside AMD. Nvidia itself rose 5.93%. Intel gained 4.22%, as rumors of Apple potentially using its chip production services continued to brew, with Intel rising from $40 to $108 within a month, becoming the champion of the turnaround list in chip stocks.

Corning (GLW) rose 17%, this century-old glass manufacturer was the most interesting supporting role of the day. Nvidia announced a collaboration with it to jointly build three advanced fiber connection manufacturing facilities in North Carolina and Texas, increasing Corning's domestic fiber connection capacity tenfold, creating at least 3,000 new jobs. The physical infrastructure construction of AI data centers has penetrated into the fiber layer; Nvidia, which was only selling GPUs two years ago, is now signing long-term cooperation agreements to build factories with glass manufacturers, a span worth recording.

ARM has already risen 13.6% during the day, posting Q4 earnings after hours that exceeded expectations for both revenue and profit, with the stock price rising another 8% after hours. The AGI CPUs under the ARM architecture are designed specifically for data center Agentic AI workloads, with Meta and OpenAI confirmed as customers, transforming ARM from a company that "licenses others to design chips" into a company that "makes chips itself." This is a fundamental expansion of its business model, and the market is re-pricing it.

Disney (DIS) closed up 7.60%, being the best performer in the Dow that day.

New CEO Josh D'Amaro's first earnings report delivered on all major indicators: revenue of $25.17 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7%, exceeding expectations of $24.85 billion; adjusted EPS of $1.57, surpassing expectations of $1.50, a year-on-year increase of 8%. The operating profit margin of the streaming business surpassed 10% for the first time, reaching 10.6%, with operating profit soaring 88% year-on-year, which is the clearest receipt of Disney+ climbing out of the abyss of losses. The parks and cruise businesses also set revenue records for the fiscal quarter.

D'Amaro also raised the full-year stock buyback target from $7 billion to $8 billion and forecasted a 12% growth in adjusted EPS for fiscal year 2026, with continued double-digit growth in 2027. The market's first impression of the new CEO is indeed this 7.6%.

Oil Prices and Gold: Brent at $99, the Real Logic Behind Breaking Below Three Digits

Brent falling below $100 is the most symbolic price event in all the news of the day.

The number itself may still be controversial; from $126 to $99, has there been real negotiating progress, or is it just another emotional trade that can be reversed within 48 hours? Trump's subsequent term of "great assumption," and Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs stating that "it is being assessed and responding through a Pakistani intermediary," both indicate that the framework agreement has not been put in black and white yet. 23,000 sailors remain trapped in the Persian Gulf, and the Strait of Hormuz is still closed; the words of Chevron's CEO from last week still linger, "Even if the Strait reopens, normalization of supply will still take months."

But the difference between Brent at $99 and Brent at $126 is a $27 inflation pressure gap. That $27 equals whether airline stocks can be profitable, whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in June, and whether consumer confidence will rebound before summer. Today, the market chose to believe it.

Gold rebounded strongly by 3.44% to $4,725.70, and silver rose 6.3% to $78.19. This rise seems contradictory to the plummet in oil prices; typically, falling oil prices correspond to decreased inflation expectations, which should pressure gold. However, today’s logic is the reverse: oil prices fall because "peace is coming," and peace means the Federal Reserve may no longer need to be hawkish, which weakens the dollar and gives space to gold. This is a much-welcomed, intuitive market rather than a confrontational one.

Cryptocurrency: $82,320, Bitcoin is Climbing That Line

On May 6, Bitcoin touched $82,320 in early trading, trading high in the $82,000-82,500 range throughout the day.

The technical significance of this position is one of the most important numbers in months: 200-day moving average around $82,228. Bitcoin has not successfully closed above this line on the daily chart since its historical peak in October 2025. Standing above it means that the technical aspect officially confirms a trend reversal; failing to hold means just another attempt that was pushed back.

On Wednesday, the plunge in oil prices changed all macro conditions in the crypto market: declining inflation expectations → retreating Fed rate hike expectations → weaker dollar → concurrent decrease in the discount rate of risk assets. Bitcoin's position in this logical chain has changed; it is no longer struggling under the pressure of "high inflation and high interest rates," but is standing at the starting line of "peace dividend."

Ethereum rose to $2,409 (+1.31%) on the same day. The total market cap of cryptocurrencies surged significantly, with the fear and greed index quickly recovering from last week's "panic" range.

One subtly released signal today is worth noting: Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei said in an interview, "If your moat is ‘our software is complex, others can't write it,’ then that moat is disappearing." This statement addresses the entire SaaS industry and explains why software stocks collectively declined after the launch of Claude's Cowork platform last January. The arrival of the AI agent era is rewriting not just the chip demand curve but also the valuation logic of the entire software industry. Su's "Agentic AI driven CPU demand" and Amodei's "SaaS moat is disappearing" are two sides of the same coin.

Today's Summary: All Four Indices Set New Records, Oil Prices Dropped Below $100, Bitcoin Touched That Line

On May 6, the market brought the best things of the last two months to the table at once.

U.S. Stocks: The S&P 500 closed at 7,365.12 (+1.46%), the Nasdaq at 25,838.94 (+2.02%), the Dow at 49,910.59 (+1.24%), and the Russell 2000 at 2,888.24 (+1.52%), with all four indices setting historical highs on the same day. AMD closed up 17.77%, SMCI rose 24.5%, Nvidia gained 5.93%, Corning increased 17%, and Disney rose 7.60%. The energy sector dropped over 4%, being the only losing sector. ADP employment data showed an addition of 109,000 private sector jobs in April, the highest in over a year.

Oil Prices/Gold: Brent closed at $99.12 (-9.8%), WTI at $91.54 (-10.5%), the first closing below $100 since the war began. The driving force was Axios's exclusive report on the U.S.-Iran nearing a "one-page memorandum." Gold rebounded 3.44% to $4,725.70, silver rose 6.3%, and the normal market logic under peace expectations began to return.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin touched $82,320, fluctuating near the 200-day moving average ($82,228), the highest price in three months. Ethereum at $2,409, with the global crypto market cap significantly rebounding, and the fear and greed index quickly recovering.

After-hours ARM Earnings: Revenue and profit exceeded expectations, rising 8% after hours, and will continue to recognize upon today's opening.

The market is now only concerned with one question: Will that piece of paper really be signed?

If the U.S. and Iran reach a written confirmation of the framework agreement within the next 48 to 72 hours, Brent may continue to move towards $90 or even $85, the U.S. stock market could see another wave of catching up, and Bitcoin might successfully close above the 200-day moving average within May. If Trump's "great assumption" falls through, and Iran rejects the nuclear enrichment terms, oil prices could rebound to $110 within 48 hours, turning today’s events into quickly reversed emotional trading.

At least today, history records this day as follows: The Dow was 90 points short of hitting 50,000, Brent was 99 cents away from holding below $100, and Bitcoin was $228 short of officially crossing the 200-day moving average. This market is at the doors of all the most important integers, waiting for a signature on a piece of paper.