Author: Deep Tide TechFlow

U.S. Stocks: Green All the Way, April Closes with a Big Bull Candle

On the last day of April, Wall Street gifted itself a present.

The S&P 500 rose 1.02%, closing at 7,209.01 points, marking its first close over 7,200, with all-time highs also being new. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.89%, closing at 24,892.31, also a historical closing high. The Dow Jones skyrocketed by 790.33 points (+1.62%), closing at 49,652.14, now just a step away from the 50,000 threshold. The Russell 2000 rose over 2%, with all 11 S&P sectors posting gains, which seems almost against the laws of physics on a day when the market was extremely overbought and oil prices spiked to $126 intraday.

The driving force came from earnings reports, from rotations, and from a collective choice: no matter what happens outside, first lock in April's profits.

Caterpillar (CAT) surged nearly 10%, contributing about 200 points to the Dow. This century-old company selling excavators and bulldozers shattered earnings expectations for Q1, but more importantly: it raised its full-year revenue guidance. At a time when GDP’s initial value is only 2% and consumers are starting to tighten their belts, the world's largest heavy machinery manufacturer daring to raise guidance sends a clear signal that demand for infrastructure and energy construction remains strong, with civil engineering work for AI data centers still digging, and energy storage and grid upgrades in the U.S. are still under construction. This is the most convincing vote from the real economy.

Eli Lilly surged 9%, making the entire healthcare sector the second strongest sector of the day. Mounjaro (diabetes) saw quarterly revenues increase by 125% year-on-year, and Zepbound (weight loss) grew by 80%, raising its full-year guidance. The narrative around weight-loss drugs still shows no signs of peaking.

Qualcomm (QCOM) soared 15%, making it the brightest star in the tech sector that day. The earnings report exceeded expectations, but what really sent the market soaring was this statement: "A leading super customer’s custom chip collaboration is proceeding as planned and is expected to ship in preliminary quantities later this year." While unnamed, analysts from Wedbush and JPMorgan have homed in on the same answer: Apple. Qualcomm's AI mobile chip is starting to penetrate Apple’s supply chain, marking one of the most significant shifts in the hardware industry in the past two years.

Alphabet (GOOGL) continued to reap the benefits of last night’s earnings report, rising 9-10% in a single day, making it one of the strongest components of the S&P 500 that day. Google Cloud's growth rate of +63% answered the question of whether "AI infrastructure investments yield returns" with a resounding number.

However, the internal differentiation within the tech sector remains severe. Meta fell 7.5%, Microsoft dropped 3.8%, and Nvidia declined 4%. The decline of these three names reflects a common concern: as all super customers collectively announce that AI capital expenditures for the year are raised from $670 billion to $725 billion, the market begins to worry about whether computational supply is catching up with demand or is exceeding demand? After every significant rise in Nvidia's history, this question re-emerges.

GDP Data: AI Capex is Becoming a New Engine of Growth for the U.S. Economy

The initial Q1 GDP value released on Thursday morning was the most underestimated number of the day.

The actual annualized quarter-on-quarter GDP growth rate was 2.0%, lower than the expected 2.3%. Looking at this number alone, it's not impressive. However, after breaking down the structure, a historical change is occurring: business investment's contribution to GDP growth has, for the first time in a single quarter, surpassed consumer spending, becoming the largest driving force behind U.S. economic growth.

Yahoo Finance cites data indicating that this proves "the U.S. economy is now an AI economy," with the combined investments from four super clients into data centers reshaping the growth structure of the U.S. GDP with trillions in infrastructure investments. The U.S. economy, traditionally driven by consumption, has, for the first time on a quarterly basis, been briefly surpassed by business capital expenditures.

The inflation data maintained the Federal Reserve's predicament: the PCE year-on-year rate was 3.5%, and the core PCE was 3.2%, both above the 2% goal, which aligns with yesterday’s internal division vote of 8 to 4 within the Fed. The twin goals of controlling inflation and preventing recession are increasingly clashing.

Oil Prices: Brent Soared to $126 in a Day, Then Retreated from Highs

Thursday was the most dramatic day for oil prices throughout April and the day closest to the edge of losing control during the entire round of warfare.

The trigger came from an Axios report: U.S. Central Command General Brad Cooper has submitted a new military proposal to Trump, including "short, intensive strikes" against Iranian energy infrastructure, mentioning the "Dark Eagle" hypersonic missile, one of the most advanced conventional strike weapons currently available to the U.S., with speeds exceeding 5 Mach, making interception almost impossible.

Upon the news, Brent crude oil surged to $126.27 intraday, hitting the highest point since March 2022 and setting the highest price since the outbreak of the Iranian war. WTI briefly broke above $115.

Then, the market made a calm judgment: this may just be a negotiating chip rather than a precursor to action. Oil prices significantly retreated from their highs, with Brent ultimately closing around $110-111 per barrel and WTI falling to about $107-108.

However, the significance of this intraday spike goes beyond the price itself. Goldman Sachs pointed out in its report that actual oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz, following U.S.-Iran blockades, has now dwindled to only 4% of normal levels. This is not merely a "tightening of supply," but rather supply is nearing complete cessation. ING commodity strategist Warren Patterson put it bluntly: the market had previously been overly optimistic, and is now confronting reality; the longer it drags out, the more irreversible the inventory consumption becomes, with demand destruction being the only mechanism that can balance the market, which relies on higher prices.

Gold rebounded slightly on Thursday from the previous day's low of $4,550-4,570 to around $4,580-4,600. The logic for the increase is also driven by oil prices: Brent at $126 has caused the market to begin re-pricing the likelihood of rate hikes in 2027. Rate hike expectations generally suppress gold, but the risk of war also supports gold, leading to a tug-of-war where gold prices can only remain stable.

Cryptocurrency: Stock Market Soars, Bitcoin Just Barely Keeps Up

On April 30, the cryptocurrency market replicated a classic scenario of "stock market surge but BTC did not keep pace."

Bitcoin opened that day at $76,130 and dropped as Brent surged toward $126, then gradually climbed back as risk appetite improved, closing around $76,300-76,500 at the end of the U.S. stock market, with an intraday increase of less than 0.5%. Ethereum traded between $2,252-2,268, and XRP was priced at $1.35, both showing slight declines. CoinGecko data showed the global cryptocurrency market capitalization around $2.53 trillion, with the fear and greed index at 39, indicating a state of panic.

This figure, compared to the S&P's +1% and the Dow's +1.62% surge today, reflects an unvoiced disappointment.

This week, Bitcoin's daily opening prices continued to decline, opening at $78,670 on Monday, $77,368 on Tuesday, $76,340 on Wednesday, and $76,130 on Thursday, marking five consecutive down steps. This is not a crash but a subtle leak downward, driven by short-term holders gradually cashing out, long-term holders maintaining their positions, and institutional ETF inflows persisting but unable to prop up the market alone.

However, there is a piece of data that needs to be included in this puzzle: Invezz cited data indicating that since the outbreak of the Iranian war on February 28, Bitcoin's price has cumulatively risen by about 20%, outperforming the S&P 500 and gold, marking the first time in history that Bitcoin outperformed all traditional safe-haven assets during significant geopolitical events.

This isn't just a one-month story; it's a two-month narrative of the market voting with capital: the long-term buying power formed by institutional ETFs has acted as a floor during every panic drop caused by oil price shocks. Bitcoin has repeatedly found support around $75,000 not because retail investors are buying in, but because the positions held by BlackRock and Strategy have grown large enough to not move easily.

On the last day of April, something highly related to the cryptocurrency industry quietly occurred: Apple’s CEO Tim Cook explicitly stated during the earnings call that collaboration with Google Gemini's AI is "going well," while also revealing that the company is independently developing an AI product line, with heavyweight AI showcases expected at WWDC 2026. This means that Apple's 2.5 billion active devices will soon become the largest edge deployment scenario for AI models. The infrastructure for this scenario, including chips, storage, and processing, will deeply rewrite the entire industry’s supply chain landscape over the next two years.

Today’s Summary: Behind April's 10.4% Increase Lies a Dual Revolution

On April 30, the April market concluded with the S&P closing at a historical high of 7,200 points, but this day also witnessed Brent spiking to $126 and the shadow of the "Dark Eagle" missile.

U.S. Stocks: The S&P 500 closed at 7,209.01 (+1.02%), the Dow rose by 790 points to close at 49,652.14, and the Nasdaq closed at 24,892.31. All 11 sectors were up. Caterpillar +10%, Eli Lilly +9%, Alphabet +9%, Qualcomm +15%. Meta down 7.5%, Microsoft down 3.8%, Nvidia down 4%. For the entire month, the S&P rose 10.4% (its best month in five years), and the Nasdaq rose 15.3% (its best month in six years).

Oil Prices: Brent reached $126.27 intraday (the highest since 2022) before retreating to $110-111. The trigger was a report on the U.S. military submitting a proposal for intensive strikes on Iran. Gold rebounded slightly to $4,580-4,600.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin closed around $76,300-76,500, with a slow decline throughout the week. Global cryptocurrency market capitalization is $2.53 trillion, with a fear and greed index of 39 (panic). However, it has seen a cumulative increase of 20% since the war began, outperforming all traditional safe-haven assets.

Post-market Apple Earnings: EPS of $2.01 exceeded expectations, revenue of $111.18 billion set a historical record, and Q3 guidance of 14-17% significantly exceeded market expectations of 9.5%. Tim Cook completed his last "official" earnings release, and John Ternus will take over as CEO on September 1. Stock rose approximately 3% post-market.

The biggest question the market faces now is this: how much difference can the market bear between oil prices of $126 and $100?

If the "Dark Eagle" proposal is a negotiating chip rather than a precursor to action, and if Brent stabilizes in the $110-115 range, the S&P can find support around 7,200, and AI Capex monthly data will continue to support tech stocks. If military action truly occurs, and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz deteriorates further, $126 will not be the top; the Fed will no longer face inflationary pressure but an economic crisis, and at that time, no one has written that script.

At least on the last day of April, one thing has been confirmed: the engine of growth for the U.S. economy has quietly shifted from consumers' credit cards to the concrete beneath the data centers of Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta.