Author: Jason Rosenthal, a16z

Translator: Yuliya, PANews

Editor’s note: Product-Market Fit (PMF) determines the life and death of crypto startups. In the current market environment, blind capital expansion and airdrops detached from strategy can no longer mask the lack of PMF. This article summarizes the three most effective PMF models currently in the crypto space. Below is the original article:

Product-Market Fit (PMF) is one of the most important factors determining a company's survival. If you get it right, you have a chance of success; if you get it wrong, nothing can save you.

In the current market environment, more capital investment does not guarantee success; in fact, it may lead companies further down the wrong path. Many companies rely on growth hacking and continuous airdrop activities, strategies that are disconnected from real market strategies, which are a form of avoidance for those that have not found PMF. In reality, certain elements that make cryptocurrencies so powerful, such as tokens and network effects, can also mislead companies on their journey to finding product-market fit.

The good news is that with the emergence of killer applications like stablecoins and the broader adoption by traditional finance (TradFi) and other consumers, strong teams in the crypto industry are finding product-market fit (PMF) faster. This trend provides important references for teams that are in the early stages of PMF or undergoing transformation. Currently, there are three effective models in play worth noting.

Model One: Collaborate with High-End Clients to Create the Products They Need

In your niche, identify the most knowledgeable and powerful potential clients and work with them to refine your product. Whatever they want, shape your product accordingly.

This approach, although slower than developing products in isolation and directly launching them to the masses, is invaluable if your first client is processing tens of billions of dollars daily and is willing to use your product. This is worth much more than how many headlines you make, the total value locked (TVL) you generate, or how many retail investors you attract. The precise definition of product-market fit is when your product resonates widely with customers, and these flagship customers are the best measure of product acceptance.

Now, many crypto startups and traditional financial giants are frequently collaborating to launch new products. What does this indicate? It shows that the direction of current products is actually dictated by these large institutions. Blockchain is quietly taking over the global financial infrastructure.

Model Two: Identify Exponential Growth Curves and Seize the Opportunity

Sometimes PMF comes from better serving existing markets. Other times, it comes from perceiving market trends before they are fully understood and positioning oneself early to gain a significant foothold.

Currently, AI agents are rapidly transitioning into economic participants, becoming autonomous actors capable of calling APIs, deploying capital, and executing trades at machine speed. The assumption of human intervention is collapsing faster than anticipated, meaning the role of AI in finance and business is continuously strengthening, gradually replacing traditional human decision-making models.

Taking agentic commerce as an example, Merit Systems CEO Sam Ragsdale and founder Ryan Sproule recognized this early on and are building AgentCash based on x402. AgentCash allows AI agents to access costs using cryptocurrency payment APIs, providing the infrastructure for a programmatic trading world without manual bill management.

Payment is crucial for agents to become actors rather than assistants. Whoever can build this infrastructure will possess foundational components of the future agent economy.

Model Three: First Become Your Most Loyal Initial Customer

Those infrastructure companies that can truly survive for the long term never foolishly wait for external developers to validate their technology. They first develop applications on their own platforms, proving through action that their infrastructure is worth using.

Amazon was the first to adopt this model, applying it to Amazon Web Services (AWS). They did not initially market AWS to startups; instead, they built the necessary infrastructure for their e-commerce business, validated it on a large scale, and then gradually opened it up for use by other companies.

Currently, ZKsync founder and Matter Labs CEO Alex is employing a similar strategy. He has not marketed Prividium as an abstract corporate product but has anchored it to a specific application: tokenized deposits. The ultimately launched Cari Network enables regional banks in the U.S., including Huntington Bancshares, First Horizon, M&T Bank, KeyCorp, and Old National Bancorp, to instantly transfer customer deposits between institutions via blockchain technology, while those funds never leave the regulated banking system. ZKsync has not only built the infrastructure for blockchain but also personally delivered a killer application.

Three models convey one basic fact: The fastest path to PMF is not through iterative exploration in the dark. It is about choosing the right game and playing it with strong conviction before others join.

Build together with customers whose validation can create a compounding effect. Seize the curve advantage before consensus is reached. Become your own first best customer.

Choose the one that suits your product, and then take action.

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