What to know : Arthur Hayes argues Hyperliquid’s planned HIP-4 prediction markets will stand out not just for low fees but because its HYPE token lets users share directly in the platform’s upside. Polymarket is expected to launch its own token, informally called POLY, with premarket trading implying a roughly $14 billion fully diluted valuation versus about $38 billion for HYPE. Regulatory posture sharply divides the rivals, with Polymarket and Kalshi constrained by U.S. and regional rules while Hyperliquid, skewing toward Asian crypto-native traders, operates without comparable compliance limits.
Leading decentralized exchange Hyperliquid's push into prediction markets is about who captures the upside, not just cheaper trading, according to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX exchange and CIO of Maelstrom fund.
CoinDesk reported earlier that Hyperliquid is preparing a zero-fee-to-open model for event trading under HIP-4. The Hyperliquid Improvement Proposal (HIP)-4 is a proposal that introduces event trading on Hyperliquid.
Hayes said that structure is only the first layer. In a note to CoinDesk, he argued that the real differentiator is HYPE, Hyperliquid’s exchange token, which he said allows users to benefit from platform activity in a way Polymarket and Kalshi currently do not.
“HIP-4 will quickly become a dominate prediction market because of Hyperliquid's large user base, much cheaper trading fees, and very robust tech infrastructure,” Hayes told CoinDesk. “Users who own the $HYPE token can directly profit from their usage of HIP-4.”
Polymarket is expected to launch a token, often referred to as $POLY.
On Gate, premarket perpetual contracts tied to a potential $POLY token are trading around $14, implying a fully-diluted valuation of roughly $14 billion. HYPE, by comparison, has an FDV of about $38 billion, according to CoinGecko data.
Pre-listing markets are often highly speculative and can be thinly traded, meaning any implied valuation should be treated with caution and may not reliably reflect actual market demand.
The argument also comes down to geography. Polymarket registered with the CFTC last July and is rebuilding its U.S. business, putting compliance at the center of its strategy.
However, in Asia, it is still grappling with how regulators classify its product. It is geoblocked in Singapore, Thailand, and Taiwan, partially restricted in Japan. Meanwhile, in Hong Kong, prediction markets more broadly are on the radar of gambling regulators
Hyperliquid faces no equivalent constraint, and its user base skews toward Asia, where crypto-native trading is already deep.
The contrast is clearest with Kalshi.
As a CFTC-regulated exchange, Kalshi’s model is built around compliance and licensing, not token incentives, which likely rules out the kind of value-accrual layer Hayes is pointing to.
That makes it the most direct test of his thesis. Users can trade event outcomes on Kalshi, but they have no path to the upside of the platform itself. In traditional markets, that kind of upside is typically accessed via equity, such as an IPO, though for now, Kalshi users' participation is limited to trading on the platform.
Across the three platforms, the split is structural: Hyperliquid already ties usage to a token, Polymarket appears to be moving in that direction, and Kalshi’s model likely prevents it altogether.
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