Trading Moment: With the interest rate decision and the earnings reports of major tech giants approaching, BTC at 78,000 has become resistance, while 75,000 has turned into support.

Daily market key data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

Macro Market

On Tuesday, the three major US stock indexes collectively closed lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.05%, closing at 49141.93 points; the S&P 500 index dropped by 0.49%, closing at 7138.8 points; the Nasdaq Composite Index fell by 0.9%, closing at 24663.8 points.

Although Trump revealed that Iran hopes the US will quickly reopen the Strait of Hormuz, he immediately stated that he was "not satisfied" with Iran's latest peace proposal, believing that the plan would delay nuclear negotiations. The Iranian side sent a strong signal, claiming it has the capability to "persist longer than Trump." In this regard, Jim Reid, head of macro research at Deutsche Bank, pointed out that the lack of signs for talks is exacerbating market concerns about the breakdown of negotiations.

WTI crude oil futures and Brent crude oil both surged significantly during this period. Meanwhile, the UAE announced that it would withdraw from OPEC and OPEC+ starting May 1 and gradually increase oil production. Although this news caused a temporary drop in oil prices, it was soon overshadowed by the supply disruption risks in the Strait of Hormuz. Bloomberg senior analyst Salih Yilmaz believes that in the short term, the market focus will remain tightly on the situation in Hormuz and the tightness of physical flows, and only when the shipping lanes reopen will the trading logic return to fundamentals. Goldman Sachs' supply-demand calculations further amplified this sense of tension: a loss of about 14.4 million barrels per day in crude oil production in the Persian Gulf is driving global oil stocks to be consumed at an astonishing rate of 11 to 12 million barrels per day. Bank of America warned that if the conflict extends into the summer, Brent's average price could soar to $150 or even higher; Citigroup set a target price of $120 for Brent in the next 0 to 3 months.

Precious metals did not benefit from the safe-haven demand, with spot gold briefly falling below the $4600 mark; silver dropped over 3%. Goldman Sachs' Rich Privorotsky stated that gold is now like an "ATM for energy companies," with funds being reallocated between energy and inflation trades. The World Bank provided a mid-term assessment: the average gold price is expected to be around $4700 per ounce this year, a 37% increase compared to last year, but could fall by about 7% by 2027; the average silver price this year is expected to be around $70 per ounce, a 76% year-on-year increase, but could also decline by 7% the following year. The World Bank also warned that once speculative demand concentrates and reverses, the pullback in precious metals could be sudden.

Interest rate cut expectations have been further compressed, with the market's pricing for a 25 basis point rate cut in 2026 significantly dropping to about one-sixth. The FOMC is expected to keep rates unchanged in the range of 3.5% to 3.75% this week, which is likely to be Powell's last performance as Federal Reserve Chair. Oliver Pursche, senior vice president at Wealthspire Advisors, stated that if oil prices remain high, the real question for the market is whether inflation will be viewed as non-temporary and force the Federal Reserve to reconsider rate hikes.

AI and the Stock Market

OpenAI has been reported to have weekly active user and revenue figures that did not meet internal targets, raising market skepticism about the technology giants' large AI capital expenditure returns. Chuck Carlson, CEO of Horizon Investment Services, stated that OpenAI's situation has led investors to begin contemplating whether growth is slowing down and what this means for capital expenditures.

As a result, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell about 3.6%, and the VanEck Semiconductor ETF closed down 2.97%. Oracle, which is deeply tied to OpenAI, fell 4.1%, CoreWeave plummeted 5.8%, and NVIDIA, Broadcom, and AMD also recorded declines ranging from 1.6% to 4.4%. Goldman Sachs data showed that high beta momentum portfolios, which have major long exposure to AI-related stocks, have shown the second worst daily performance of the year.

Additionally, the computing power sector, which is closely linked to OpenAI, has also been severely impacted, with Rambus plummeting 21.26% and Credo Technology dropping 8.08%. Market concerns over OpenAI's future ability to pay for data center contracts have further intensified selling pressure. SoftBank, under pressure due to its large investment in OpenAI, saw its Japanese stock price plunge nearly 10%, marking the largest single-day drop since last November.

Despite this, some investors remain optimistic about the AI field. Dan Morgan, portfolio manager at Synovus Trust, noted that any news causing skepticism about OpenAI or Anthropic will trigger sell-offs. However, he emphasized that he did not adjust his positions on Tuesday, believing that concerns have not yet fully spread, and that recent earnings reports from IBM, Texas Instruments, and Intel have remained strong. Meanwhile, hard drive giant Seagate surpassed expectations in its third-quarter earnings, with its stock price soaring 18% after hours, pulling Western Digital up over 8%.

Next, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Apple will intensively disclose their earnings reports over the next two days, with these companies collectively accounting for about 44% of the total market capitalization of the S&P 500. The market will closely examine the scale of AI spending, order visibility, and descriptions of investment returns.

Bitcoin Market

Bitcoin retreated after repeatedly facing resistance at $80,000, with the price briefly falling below $76,000, fluctuating around the $76,300 to $77,000 range during the day. Previously, BTC touched $79,400 in the Asian session on Monday but failed to break through the psychological barrier of $80,000, subsequently retreating under the combined pressure of the situation in Hormuz, the return of oil prices to above $100, pre-FOMC cautious sentiment, and the declines in US tech stocks.

CoinGlass shows that there is dense selling liquidity around $78,000 to $80,000, while $75,000 to $75,500 has become a key short-term support; Glassnode's URPD data indicates that about 335,650 BTC costs are concentrated around $78,000, forming immediate resistance, while about 298,560 BTC costs are centered around $75,500, becoming significant support. Panic sentiment spread in the options market, with the 0.15 Delta Skew crashing to -11.52. Deep out-of-the-money put options were madly scooped up, pushing IV to 38.13%. The Coinbase premium index turned negative for the first time in three weeks to -0.008, indicating that demand in the US spot market has started to weaken.

Bearish Outlook

Short-term capital and on-chain data are showing red lights, with profit-taking selling pressure and liquidity exhaustion becoming the core logic for bears. Analysts are generally concerned that if effective resistance is not overcome, the market will face a deeper correction.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated: short-term holders are extremely fragile, having transferred nearly 150,000 BTC to exchanges within three days, eager to escape at the slightest opportunity.
Ardi: Bitcoin has broken below the trendline support and the $77,300 liquidity area, with market focus shifting to the key support range of $74,500 to $75,500.
Killa: Currently still holding BTC short positions and plans to reduce some risk exposure before the FOMC. Prices remain above the upper level of the $75,000 range, with superficial price behavior not yet indicating a clear bearish trend; however, if it falls back into the range, the probability of dropping below $70,000 will significantly increase.
Mister Crypto: BTC has tested the short-term holders' realization price at $79,300, which typically serves as resistance during bear markets; unless the price converts it to support, further downside should be anticipated.
mooncakexbt: The $77,400 support has turned into resistance and become a negative Delta area; if the price rebounds to $76,800 to $77,400 and is rejected again, it may continue to run towards lower high volume nodes.
Woominkyu: On April 27, Bitcoin's net inflow to exchanges rose to 9,905 BTC, the largest single-day net inflow in the past 30 days; the exchange whale ratio increased to 0.707, meaning the top 10 inflow transactions accounted for over 70% of total deposits, with exchange reserves also rising from 2.666 million to 2.677 million, showing increased potential selling pressure.
Santiment: In the past week, discussions on social platforms X, Reddit, Telegram regarding Bitcoin being above $90,000 have intensified, as high price predictions often serve as contra sentiment references, suggesting that rising FOMO may bring an opposite path.
Godot: There are currently institutional bottom-supporting actions around $76,000, with short-term upward pressure possibly arising from futures short covering; however, on the mid-term outlook, this round of rebound top is expected in the $78,000 to $80,000 range, and after the rebound ends, it may continue to decline.

Bullish Outlook

Long-term capital and improvements in macro expectations provide the bulls with confidence, while technical patterns and stablecoin inflows indicate a breakthrough after consolidation. Bulls firmly believe that the current consolidation is merely a preparation for a sprint towards higher targets.

Coinbase & Glassnode: Despite the increased macro risks such as the situation in the Middle East adding short-term uncertainties, the macro environment may be shifting towards a positive direction, helping crypto assets build a bottom recently and recover later in this quarter. Bitcoin sentiment has risen from "fear" in Q1 to "optimism" in Q2, with about 75% of institutional investors and 71% of retail investors believing Bitcoin is undervalued.
Michael van de Poppe: Bitcoin's consolidation after touching resistance at $79,000 is typical behavior before the FOMC, and the market may still enter a strong phase.
Ali Charts: The Bitcoin monthly chart is forming a "morning star" pattern, similar high-cycle patterns over the past three years have marked macro turning points; as long as the low point of $73,000 is held, the structure remains biased upward.

Key Data (As of April 29, 13:00 HKT)

(Data Source: Coinank, Upbit, SoSoValue, CryptoBubbles)

Bitcoin ETF: -$89.6754 million
Ethereum ETF: -$21.8019 million
Fear and Greed Index: 26 (Fear)
Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: BLEND, ORCA, PRL, BTC, XRP
Sector Performance: The crypto market continues to consolidate, with only AI and GameFi sectors relatively strong.

24-hour liquidation data: A total of 65,534 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $202 million, including $60.47 million for BTC, $58.2 million for ETH, and $4.58 million for XAU.

Today's Outlook

Binance will delist USDⓈ-M perpetual contracts for ZKJ, IRU, and DAM from April 28 to April 29
Rayls public chain mainnet will launch on April 30, with RLS deflation mechanism simultaneously starting
MegaETH announces that the MEGA token TGE is scheduled for April 30
Atomicals ecological trading platform Atomicals Market will officially close on April 30
Magic Eden wallet will completely stop operating on May 1
Binance will delist multiple spot trading pairs including BAND/BTC, BAT/BTC on May 1
US FOMC interest rate decision (lower limit): Expected 3.5%, previous value 3.5 (April 30, 02:00)
US FOMC interest rate decision (upper limit): Expected 3.75%, previous value 3.75% (April 30, 02:00)
Google conference call (April 30, 04:30)
Meta, Amazon, Microsoft conference call (April 30, 05:30)
Apple conference call (May 1, 05:00)
Optimism (OP) will unlock about 31.34 million tokens on April 30, valued at approximately $3.9 million
Zora (ZORA) will unlock about 166.7 million tokens on April 30, valued at approximately $2.3 million
Gunz (GUN) will unlock about 354 million tokens on April 30, valued at approximately $5.5 million
Kamino (KMNO) will unlock about 229 million tokens on April 30, valued at approximately $4.5 million
EigenCloud (EIGEN) will unlock about 36.82 million tokens on May 1, valued at approximately $6.6 million
ZetaChain (ZETA) will unlock about 44.26 million tokens on May 1, valued at approximately 25
Sui (SUI) will unlock about 42.62 million tokens on May 1, valued at approximately $39.42 million

Today's top gainers among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization: Rain up 7.9%, Pump.fun up 6.7%, Pi Network up 6.5%, Bittensor up 6.2%, Aerodrome Finance up 3.9%.

Hot News

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