Trading Moment: BTC rushes to 80,000 again, currently needs to hold the key support of 77,000.

Daily market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

Macro Market

The S&P 500 index closed strongly up 0.8% to 7165.08 points on Friday, refreshing its historical high, while the Nasdaq index surged 1.6% to 24836.60 points, also setting a new record. The Dow Jones index slightly fell by 0.16%, and S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures continued to rise today. Goldman Sachs hedge fund chief Tony Pasquariello issued a warning, noting that both systemic and active fund buying have significantly cooled, and the market's internal structure is becoming more cautious.

Meanwhile, the stock markets of Japan and South Korea boldly set historical highs; the Nikkei 225 Index rose 1.93% to 60876 points, and the South Korean KOSPI Index surged over 2.5% to 6657 points. The head of South Korea's ruling party, Jeong Cheong-rae, stated that the "Korea discount" era is over, and the KOSPI index is targeting the 7000 to 8000 point range.

The historic breakthroughs in the Japanese and South Korean stock markets are largely attributed to contributions from the technology and semiconductor sectors. Citigroup analysts noted that South Korea's chip exports in the first 20 days of April have reached a historical high, with expectations for a year-on-year increase of 46.3% for the entire month. Both JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs have raised their target prices for the South Korean stock market to over 8000 points, with Goldman significantly increasing its earnings growth forecast for South Korean companies this year from 130% to 220%, reflecting the explosive growth in AI semiconductor demand.

Bitcoin Market

Bitcoin has recently been fluctuating sharply in the $77000 to $79000 range, approaching the psychological and option key resistance level of $80,000. Over the past 8 days, the spot Bitcoin ETF has attracted $2.12 billion in inflows, with BlackRock's IBIT contributing $1.6 billion, raising the average cost for ETF holders to around $81,000.

On-chain data shows that Bitcoin's realized volatility has dropped from 56% to 41%, and since April 9, Coinbase's Bitcoin premium index has maintained a positive value for 19 consecutive days, marking the strongest influx of US funds in six months. Additionally, around $30 million in whale sell orders has gathered near the $80,000 mark, alongside 7200 BTC options gamma exposure and a substantial number of ETF buyers' breakeven points. This position also overlaps with realized prices for short-term holders and a high volume of outstanding bullish options, indicating that market makers' dynamic hedging will form significant concentrated selling pressure here.

Bearish Views

Core logic: Macroeconomic liquidity is constrained, historical cycle patterns suggest a rebound peak, market sentiment lacks substantial enthusiasm, and there is a risk of deep correction in the short term.

Matthew Hyland: The market lacks genuine euphoric sentiment, with the current rise accompanied by bearish calls, which is a typical case of a "doubtful" rebound; Bitcoin is expected to experience a new bottom by October.
Michael Terpin (Crypto Godfather): Based on historical average drawdown cycles, Bitcoin prices may hit a low of $57,000 in October 2026.
Alex Xu (Mint Ventures): The potential energy driving the surge in BTC is insufficient, and the adoption by sovereign nations is less than expected; overall industry gloom is leading to a shrinking fundamental base; the largest buyer, MicroStrategy, facing higher financing costs (reaching 11.5%) will trigger marginal selling pressure.
Killa: Macro data has been priced in, historical performance in May is weak, and there are obvious characteristics of a bear market rebound. Sticking to the short-selling plan since 120,000, believing the market is far from the bottom and will face lower prices in the third quarter.
LP: The consecutive four weeks of bullish price action is highly similar to the 2018 bear market, and the upcoming time nodes can easily form a local top and trigger a substantial pullback.
Ted: The change of Federal Reserve leadership (e.g., Kevin Warsh taking office) has historically been accompanied by Bitcoin plunges of 61% to 84% (under Yellen and Powell), history may repeat itself; and there remains an open gap at the CME around $84,000.
Murphy: The real market average price ($78,000) is about to intersect with the realized prices for short-term holders ($80,000), which has typically indicated strong selling pressure and price declines over the past 13 years.

Bullish Views

Core logic: The regulatory environment is experiencing unprecedented favorable conditions, institutional funds are strongly flowing back, on-chain indicators resonate with historical bullish signals, and breaking through resistance will open up a major upswing.

Forbes: The US SEC reiterates its support for innovation and plans to release the "Innovation Waiver," combined with support from the Trump administration, with this regulatory shift seen as the friendliest in history, and strong expectations for institutional funds to enter, which is likely to help BTC stabilize above $80,000.
VanEck analysts: Bitcoin has shown two historical bullish signals: negative funding rates and a concentrated decrease in hash rates. Historical data shows that the average return during negative funding rates can reach +11.5% over 30 days, with a hit rate of 77%.
Ali Charts: The sharp ratio of BTC has recovered from an extreme risk-off level of -43 to 20.35, indicating that the market has digested volatility and is shifting towards a more favorable risk-adjusted environment; if support at $77,000 holds, the target will aim for $84,500.
Michaël van de Poppe: A clear breakout above $79,000 will open the door to the $86,000 to $89,000 range; if further breakthroughs occur, a target above $100,000 will become a reality.

Ethereum Market

Recently, Ethereum prices have been fluctuating in the $2300 to $2400 range, becoming the focal point for both bulls and bears. Analyst Ted pointed out that if ETH successfully breaks above $2400, it is likely to reach the $2470-$2500 liquidity pool; however, if it drops below $2300, the price may quickly retreat to the strong support level of $2150 to $2200 to seek buying interest.

At the same time, analyst Michaël van de Poppe stated that Ethereum may follow Bitcoin to initiate an ascending channel. After experiencing three months of consolidation, a breakout above the resistance level of $2427 is highly probable, and it is expected to not stagnate at the first resistance zone of $2755, with a rebound to around $3400 being a more reasonable expectation. If Bitcoin continues to rebound, the altcoin market will welcome a stronger rally.

Key Data (as of April 27, 1:00 PM HKT)

(Data source: Coinank, Upbit, SoSoValue, CryptoBubbles)

Bitcoin ETF: Net inflow last week was $824 million, achieving net inflow for four consecutive weeks
Ethereum ETF: Net inflow last week was $155 million, achieving net inflow for three consecutive weeks
SOL ETF: Net inflow last week was $9.44 million
XRP ETF: Net inflow last week was $15.74 million
Fear and Greed Index: 47 (Neutral)
Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: ORCA, ZBT, BTC, ETH, ENSO
Sector gains and losses: The NFT sector rose 3.85% in 24 hours, and the DeFi sector rose 3.74%

24-hour liquidation data: A total of 67,309 people were liquidated worldwide, with a total liquidation amount of $233 million, including $84.13 million for BTC, $75.43 million for ETH, and $5.38 million for ZBT.

Today's Outlook

Insider: The second round of negotiations between the United States and Iran is scheduled for April 27
The "Clarity Act," which was originally planned for review in the week of April 27, may be postponed to May
Polymarket will undergo V2 exchange upgrade on April 28, expected downtime of about 1 hour
Binance will delist VINEUSDT and AIUSDT perpetual contracts on April 28
Binance will delist DEGO, DENT, and TRU spot on April 28
Everstake will exit the Celestia validator network prior to April 28
Jupiter (JUP) will unlock approximately 53.47 million tokens on April 28, valued at around $9.2 million
Sign (SIGN) will unlock approximately 401 million tokens on April 28, valued at around $7 million

Today, the top gainers among the top 100 coins by market cap: Manadia up 39.2%, Pudgy Penguins up 10.1%, Jupiter up 5%, Rain up 4.3%, Aerodrome Finance up 3.5%.

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