Trading Moment: As long as BTC holds above 73,000, it may sprint towards 80,000; next week, reports from tech giants will be coming in thick and fast.

Daily market key data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

Macro Market

Wall Street is being pulled back and forth by panic and greed, three major stock indexes fell collectively. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 179.71 points (-0.36%) to 49,310.32 points, the S&P 500 index decreased by 29.50 points (-0.41%) to 7,108.40 points, and the Nasdaq index plunged 219.06 points (-0.89%) to 24,438.50 points. The market is permeated with concerns that U.S. stocks may be approaching a “bubble top,” with investors gradually ignoring risks driven by FOMO emotions.

On the geopolitical front, Trump announced an extension of the ceasefire agreement between Lebanon and Israel for three weeks and stated he is “not in a hurry” to reach an agreement with Iran, even jokingly predicting that insider trading in the market makes “the whole world feel a bit like a casino.” At the same time, Iranian President Pezeshkian and Speaker Qalibaf collectively denied internal divisions, emphasizing that the focus of negotiations has shifted from nuclear issues to a complete ceasefire; meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Defense plans to hold a press conference at 8 PM tonight regarding “Epic Fury” operations.

AI and Stock Market

On April 23, U.S. software stocks experienced “Black Thursday”, although some companies’ performance exceeded expectations, their stock prices fell sharply under the shadow of the “SaaS apocalypse” theory. ServiceNow and IBM plummeted by 18% and 9% respectively due to delayed Middle Eastern contracts and slowed revenues, with cumulative declines of 40% and 21% for the year. Oracle, Palantir, Salesforce, Workday, and Adobe stocks collectively dropped 6%-9%, and the iShares expanded technology software sector ETF fell 6% in a single day, with a cumulative decline of 27% over six months.

Market concerns are rising over the potential disruption of traditional user-based software business models by AI models (such as Anthropic and OpenAI). Design software Figma suffered another nearly 10% drop on Thursday due to Anthropic's launch of its competing product, Claude Design, marking a 54% drop this year. Despite attempts by Atlassian's CEO and analysts to reassure the market, Atlassian's stock still fell 8.63%, with a cumulative decline of 58% this year. Next Thursday (April 30), earnings reports from Google, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta, along with results from Cloudflare, Datadog, etc., will be critical in determining whether this wave of pessimistic narratives can reverse.

The semiconductor sector rose against the trend driven by demand for computing power, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index increasing for 17 consecutive days, breaking through 10,000 points, and Texas Instruments saw a single-day surge of 19.43%, marking the largest single-day gain in 20 years. Intel’s Q1 revenue was $13.6 billion (up 7% year-on-year), and the Q2 midpoint guidance at $14.3 billion exceeded expectations, causing the stock price to soar over 20% in after-hours trading.

The explosion of AI computing power demand has also triggered a wave of layoffs among Silicon Valley giants. Meta announced a 10% layoff (approximately 8,000 people) in May, causing its stock to drop 2.31%; Microsoft launched its first large-scale voluntary retirement plan in 51 years, with stock falling nearly 4%; Snap and Block also followed suit, laying off 16% and 40% of staff respectively.

Bitcoin Market

Bitcoin strongly broke through $79,000 on Wednesday but faced staunch resistance at the psychological barrier of $80,000, currently oscillating at high levels around $78,000. Institutional buying remains the core driving force, with a net inflow of $1.9 billion over the past seven days; Morgan Stanley's new MSBT ETF has attracted over $153 million in two weeks. Meanwhile, the BTC reserve on Binance has fallen to a low of 618,300 coins, and long-term holders have increased their holdings by approximately 130,000 BTC over the past 30 days, with chips accelerating towards high-belief holders. However, the total number of open contracts across the network has reached 775,000 BTC, and the funding rate is showing a rare negative value, suggesting a strong potential for short squeezes in the market. Additionally, Deribit data shows that today approximately $8.47 billion nominal value of BTC options are set to expire, with the maximum pain point at $72,000.

Some analysts believe that the resistance at $80,000 may signal heavy selling pressure above, and the recent unilateral rise lacks a deep correction, which could lead to a larger adjustment. If Bitcoin can hold the key support level of $72,000-$75,000, the price is likely to break through $80,000.

Bearish Viewpoint

The bearish camp believes that Bitcoin's current upward momentum lacks liquidity support, and resistance at $80,000 may trigger a deep correction.

Ted: The bottoms for 2024 and 2025 have both fallen below previous lows, and since February this year, such a situation has not occurred. Therefore, it is expected that BTC will fall to $60,000 to form a true bottom.
Killa: Refusing to believe that $60,000 is the bottom for this round; historical cycles indicate that breaking below previous lows in the next few months is a reasonable scenario.
CryptoBullet: The current market is in the X-wave rebound of a bear market WXY structure, expecting the final downwave (Y-wave) to drive the price down to $40,000, hitting bottom between September and October 2026.
Minga: The stepped rise since this month lacks substantial liquidity sweeps; this trend usually ends with a rapid decline, and unaddressed liquidity below remains the ultimate target.

bullish Viewpoint

The bullish camp firmly believes that retail investors' exit and institutional buying frenzy have completed a solid bottom construction, and it's only a matter of time before breaking historical resistance.

MN Fund Founder: As long as the support level of $73,000-$75,000 holds, Bitcoin is expected to continue rising in the next 1-2 weeks, targeting $85,000-$88,000.
Ali Charts: The Sharpe ratio is rebounding strongly; the proportion of chips held by short-term holders has dropped below 7%—a historical extreme, with funds accelerating into the derivatives market; as long as the support of $73,700 is held, the target of $96,000 is within reach.
Santiment: Market sentiment has shifted from extreme pessimism to super FOMO; although there is resistance at $80,000, once broken, it will lead to a massive return of new and old traders.
Tryrex: Bears are slowly realizing their failure, Bitcoin is gearing up for an impending major breakout, and $84,000 will arrive sooner than everyone expects.
Daan Crypto Trades: As long as bulls can strongly push through the $80,000 region, the reversal of the large-scale cycle will be firmly established, with solid defenses at $72,000 and $65,000.
Scient: Unless the daily close falls below $76,000, I won't complicate the situation further and will continue to seek long opportunities; the EMA resistance in the low $80,000 range is like a magnet.
Zord: The short liquidation towards $80,000 has been basically completed, with a lack of liquidation targets above $91,000, the market may accumulate fuel here before directly shooting towards $93,000.

Key Data (As of April 24, 1:00 PM HKT)

(Data Source: Coinank, Upbit, SoSoValue, CryptoBubbles)

Bitcoin ETF: +$223 million, sustained net inflow for 7 days
Ethereum ETF: -$75.936 million, termination of 10-day net inflow
SOL ETF: +$7.3314 million
XRP ETF: $3.8857 million
Fear and Greed Index: 39 (Fear)
Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: SPR, CHIP, KAT, BTC, ETH
Sector Gains and Losses: The crypto sector showed mixed results, with the Meme sector up 1.23%, and ETH slightly retreated.

24-hour liquidation data: A total of 92,545 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $375 million; among them, $176 million for BTC, $84.49 million for ETH, and $12.47 million for RAVE.

Today's Outlook

Trump will hold a luncheon for TRUMP token holders at Mar-a-Lago on April 25
WBTC: Expected to complete cross-chain DVN configuration upgrade before April 26
The U.S. Department of Defense will hold a press conference at 8 PM on April 24
Monad (MON) will unlock approximately 170 million tokens on April 24, worth about $5.5 million
Initia (INIT) will unlock approximately 82.94 million tokens on April 24, worth about $7.8 million
SoSoValue (SOSO) will unlock approximately 13.33 million tokens on April 24, worth about $5.5 million
Plasma (XPL) will unlock approximately 88.89 million tokens on April 25, worth about $9.4 million
Humanity (H) will unlock approximately 105 million tokens on April 25, worth about $10.8 million

The largest percentage increases among the top 100 cryptocurrencies today: Stable up 19.6%, Zcash up 8.2%, Aerodrome Finance up 5.4%, Algorand up 3.6%, DeXe up 3.6%.

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