Author: TechFlow

U.S. Stocks: Historical highs at the opening, software stocks brought the market down

On Thursday, Wall Street started off well, only to be spoiled by its own earnings season.

The S&P 500 reached a historic high of 7,147.78 intraday, then turned around, closing down 0.41% at 7,108.40 points. The Nasdaq fared worse: it also hit a historic high intraday but ultimately closed down 0.89% at 24,438.50, the deepest decline among major indices that day. The Dow fell below 49,310.32, dropping 179.71 points, a decline of 0.36%. The Russell 2000 fell 0.37%.

In short: the S&P 500 and Nasdaq stumbled at their historic highs.

What brought the market down were two names: IBM and ServiceNow.

IBM fell more than 10%. The quarterly report numbers weren’t bad, with revenue and EPS both exceeding expectations, but the problem lay in one sentence: the full-year guidance remained unchanged. In a year of explosive AI arms race in 2026, "unchanged" essentially tells the market that IBM hasn't captured enough of the action. Signals of slowing growth in its RedHat cloud business led analysts to start questioning: is IBM's AI narrative genuinely taking shape, or is it just a presentation slide?

ServiceNow's decline was even worse, ultimately closing down over 17%. Ironically, this company's Q1 revenue and EPS both surpassed expectations. The trigger for the sell-off was a single sentence: subscription revenue growth was dragged down by "Middle East conflicts," and the costs of integrating Armis after the acquisition exceeded expectations. The CEO explained the slowdown in customer procurement decisions by citing the war in Iran, a reasoning that left some investors unconvinced; a software company’s moat shouldn't be so easily breached by geopolitics.

The plummet of these two stocks dragged the entire enterprise software sector into a quagmire. The iShares Tech Software ETF (IGV) suffered a sharp drop that day, as the market began to reprice one question: is AI a blessing or a curse for software companies?

Of course, not everyone was crying.

Texas Instruments (TXN) rose by 16%-18%, marking one of the largest single-day gains in history. Q1 earnings exceeded expectations across the board, with strong demand for industrial and automotive chips proving that the semiconductor recovery is not a false boom. The SOX semiconductor index has risen for 17 consecutive trading days; if Intel's earnings report aligns tomorrow, it might push for an 18th consecutive rise.

The defensive sector surged ahead: utilities rose by 2.80%, the industrial sector by 1.75%, and consumer staples by 1.65%, together accounting for 36.5% of the day's rising stocks. On a day of software stocks' collapse and soaring oil prices, funds flowing into pipelines, power grids, and supermarkets exemplified the classic response to emerging uncertainty.

American Airlines (AAL) was another dramatic case that day. Its full-year EPS guidance was slashed to only $-0.40 to $1.10, far below the initial estimate of $1.70-2.70; high oil prices completely blocked profitability in the airline sector. However, due to a smaller-than-expected actual loss in Q1, the stock price actually rose 4% that day. This market logic of "even in such a bad situation, exceeding expectations" itself highlights how low investor expectations had sunk.

Oil Prices: The negotiation table flipped, WTI surged to $96

The biggest market shock today wasn’t from earnings reports, but from one person’s resignation.

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf announced his withdrawal from the negotiation team with the U.S. News broke during lunch, causing WTI crude oil futures to surge nearly 4% in minutes, breaking through $96.50/barrel intraday, and Brent crude surpassed $105/barrel.

The destructive power of this news lies in its signal: less than 48 hours after Trump announced an "indefinite ceasefire," the hardest voices within Iran had already upturned the negotiation table. The ceasefire is genuine, but the peace process has, in effect, stalled. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues, and the global gap in oil and gas supply has approached 5 million barrels per day.

High oil prices are systematically eroding the valuation logic of the entire U.S. stock market. American Airlines cut its full-year guidance, United Airlines’ Q2 guidance was disappointing, and pressure on industrial stocks is rising. QCP Capital noted in a report that day: "The path ahead for Bitcoin and all risk assets is still anchored to oil prices and Federal Reserve policy."

Gold: Pressured at $4,730, waiting for the next signal

Gold hovered around $4,730/ounce that day, failing to hold onto the previous day's $4,758.

Surging oil prices → rising inflation expectations → strengthening dollar; this transmission chain once again suppressed gold's safe-haven premium today, creating an instinctively counterintuitive situation: the more endless the war seems, the less gold rises.

The reason lies in the core economic consequence of this war: it is not financial instability, but inflation. Inflation corresponds to a strong dollar and high interest rates, both of which are natural enemies of gold. Since the outbreak of the war, gold prices have fallen nearly 10% from their peak. Anyone betting on gold with traditional safe-haven logic has received a harsh lesson from the market over the past three weeks.

Where has the real safe-haven money gone? Into Texas Instruments, into utilities, and also into Bitcoin.

Cryptocurrency: $80K is there, but can't be crossed

According to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin traded throughout the day on April 23, maintaining a narrow range between $77,800 and $78,200, ultimately closing around $77,831, with a total global crypto market cap of $2.68 trillion and a fear and greed index of 46 (neutral but cautious). Bitcoin's market share was 58.1%, with Ethereum around 10.6%.

Bitcoin's movement that day resembled someone hesitating on a diving board.

In the morning, it briefly tested above $78,500, but following a sudden surge in oil prices at lunch and the Nasdaq turning negative from its historic high, Bitcoin also fell back, failing to make an effective push against the critical psychological level of $80,000. The pressure at $80K partly comes from technical factors, with a dense accumulation of sell orders from the bear market stage in that area; partly from macro factors, as long as oil prices remain above $95, the inflation narrative will continue to suppress the valuation expansion space for risk assets.

QCP Capital specifically pointed out this logic: "The current crypto trend is highly linked with oil prices and interest rate expectations. Without a pullback in crude oil or clearer guidance from the Federal Reserve, the market will remain watchful, pricing in uncertainty rather than solutions."

On-chain data shows that Bitcoin balances on exchanges remain at multi-year lows, indicating that holders prefer to remain inactive rather than sell below $80K. This structural shortage could be potential fuel for long positions, but the trigger must occur first.

Today's Summary: Financial reports and oil prices teamed up, turning historic highs into a trap

On April 23, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq refreshed their historical highs intraday, but both failed to hold; IBM and ServiceNow's earnings reports struck a blow to the optimistic expectations for tech stocks, while the Iranian negotiation table flipping pushed WTI to $96.50:

U.S. Stocks: The S&P 500 closed down 0.41% at 7,108.40, and the Nasdaq down 0.89% at 24,438.50. IBM plummeted 10%, ServiceNow dropped 17%, leading to a collapse in the enterprise software sector. Texas Instruments rose 16%, becoming the only bright spot of earnings season. The defensive sector (utilities +2.80%) was the safest place that day.

Oil Prices: WTI intraday surpassed $96.50, and Brent crossed $105. The Iranian Speaker announced withdrawal from negotiations, and the ceasefire agreement is becoming an empty promise.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin consolidated between $77,800-78,200, with a market cap of $2.68 trillion and a fear and greed index of 46. $80,000 is the most important price point currently; if it breaks, it opens up upward space; if it doesn’t, it sends a short signal.

The market now only cares about one question: how long can software companies' AI premiums hold up?

IBM and ServiceNow's earnings reports tell us that the threat brought by AI large models has started to transition from the "narrative level" to the "earnings report level," with slowing subscription revenue and conservative guidance, and the market is recalculating the survival space of those traditional software companies. Tomorrow's Intel earnings report will provide another answer: chip companies have benefited in this AI revolution, but what about software companies?

At least today, one thing is certain: before oil prices retreat and negotiations restart, any historical high is a position that needs to be approached with caution.

Data source: Yahoo Finance, CoinGecko, Trading Economics, CNBC, TheStreet as of the close of U.S. stocks on April 23, 2026