Daily market key data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.
Macroeconomic Market
The situation in the Middle East has intensified market unease, with the ceasefire agreement deadline set to expire on April 23 at 10:00 AM Beijing time. Trump announced an extension of the ceasefire and maintained a maritime blockade, warning that without a unified plan, bombings would resume. Iran responded by agreeing to pause military operations but emphasized that controlling the Strait of Hormuz is a key bargaining chip in the war, stating that the war is not over.
All three major US stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 293.18 points (-0.59%) to 49,149.38 points, the S&P 500 falling 45.13 points (-0.63%) to end at 7,064.01 points, and the Nasdaq Composite declining 144.43 points (-0.59%) to 24,259.96 points, ending the longest 13-day winning streak since 1992.
International crude oil surged, with Brent crude futures breaking through the psychological barrier of $100 per barrel; WTI crude also rose 5%, peaking at $92. Rystad Energy warned that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will further worsen oil supply disruptions this month. Spot gold briefly fell more than 3.1%, losing the $4,700 support, while spot silver plummeted more than 5%. Both gold and silver have since seen a slight recovery. Analyst CrypNuevo pointed out that gold has fallen below the 1D 50EMA, and if it drops back to $4,500, it is very likely to test the aggressive target of $4,100 further down.
The Federal Reserve's policy path has added uncertainty, with interest rate cut expectations being ruthlessly suppressed. Federal Reserve Chair nominee Waller signaled a hawkish stance in a Senate hearing, not only rejecting concessions to Trump's interest rate cut demands but also advocating for a reform of the inflation framework and a reduction of the balance sheet.
Driven by strong demand for AI chips and the depreciation of the yen, Nikkei 225 index is nearing the 60,000 mark, breaking through the historic high of 59,700; KOSPI of South Korea continued to set new historical highs today, surpassing 6,400 points. Goldman Sachs strategist Bruce Kirk noted that North American funds are quickly returning to the Japanese stock market; Goldman has also raised the target price for South Korea's KOSPI to 8,000 points.
AI and Stock Market
Amid geopolitical turmoil, AI and tech giants remain the strongest belief in the capital markets. Although the overall market is under pressure, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 0.5% against the trend, achieving 15 consecutive days of gains and setting a new historical high; the S&P 500 Energy Index surged 1.31% due to rising oil prices.
Tech giants continue to increase investments in AI, with Amazon announcing additional investments in the AI startup Anthropic, further boosting market confidence in AI-driven profit growth, pushing its stock price up 0.66% against the trend. Meanwhile, OpenAI launched ChatGPT Images 2.0, equipped with thinking-level intelligence.
Apple faces market concerns due to CEO Tim Cook's resignation and leadership changes, leading to a 2.5% drop in stock price, with the total market value falling below $4 trillion. Tesla's stock price fell 1.55% due to quarterly delivery data falling short of expectations and a significant 24.3% decline in new car sales in California, resulting in a cumulative decline of over 14% year to date, making it the worst performer among the seven U.S. tech giants. Tesla will release its Q1 2026 financial report tomorrow, with the market expecting revenue of $22.27 billion and earnings per share of $0.25, both higher than the same period last year.
Bitcoin Market
Bitcoin surged strongly today, not only breaking through the $77,000 mark but also filling the $77,300 CME gap left last week. Despite the market's high spirits and investors hoping for prices to continue to rise and fill the CME gap of $80,000 to $84,000 left from January 30 to February 3, several analysts warned that in the current bearish or volatile background, such a "perfect pullback" situation is hard to achieve, and the price may encounter short selling pressure and fall quickly when approaching significant resistance levels.
Bearish Viewpoint
The bearish camp believes that escalating macro geopolitical risks, declining on-chain momentum, and discounted purchases due to strategy financing tools may lead to buying power stagnation, which could drag Bitcoin below the $70,000 support.
LP: The Coinbase premium index has remained green on higher time frames, but momentum is fading. Since $98K, every green flip has coincided with local tops. Current data does not support bullishness, and a decline is expected in the coming weeks.
Killa: I have adjusted the short stop-loss level to $83K; if the weekly close is above this, the bearish view will be invalidated. April 29 is the next crucial economic pivot, and based on historical experience, May will present severe tests for the market, with prices likely to fall below $70K.
mooncake: If BTC is again constrained by $77.2K-$77.5K, the uptrend may come to an end.
Cointelegraph analyst: Strategy's preferred stock STRC has fallen below the $100 face value, which may force it to suspend this week's purchase plans. Technically, BTC is showing a flag pattern correction on the daily chart; if support is lost, the price risks dropping to the $67,000-$69,000 range.
Bullish Viewpoint
The bullish camp firmly believes that ample institutional liquidity, negative funding rates brewing a short squeeze, and strong seasonal patterns indicate that the true rebound for Bitcoin has just begun.
Ash Crypto: This bear market may be shorter because the market is driven by institutional liquidity. If favorable regulations like the Clarity Act resonate with the Fed's interest rate cuts, Bitcoin will welcome a strong catch-up rebound.
AlphaBTC: The upward space may be limited near the $84,000 CME gap, where resistance exists due to a significant profit reserve of 1.1 million Bitcoins.
CW8900: The SOPR ratio of BTC has rebounded from its low, and the NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit and Loss) has turned positive for the first time since January, marking the end of the downtrend; this period's "real rebound" has commenced.
Michaël van de Poppe: Although the market is in a consolidation phase, the upward trend is evident, and Bitcoin is expected to push towards the $85,000 area in the next two to three weeks.
Grayscale Research: Bitcoin has formed a lasting bottom in the $63,000 to $70,000 range. The current price of $76,000 is slightly above the recent buyers' average cost of $74,000, and the easing of selling pressure suggests the beginning of a bull market.
Decode / Osemka: Although the price fluctuates upward, the funding rate unusually remains negative. The market is currently heavily shorted, and the short squeeze "cannon is loaded", with bulls only needing to ignite the fuse to aim for $85,000.
Market Dynamics
The Russell 2000 index successfully broke through five-year resistance after a monthly surge of 12%, reaching a historic high of 2,817 points during Tuesday's trading, followed by a slight pullback, closing down 1%. Analyst Bull Theory pointed out that small-cap stocks performed strongly against a backdrop of weak tech stocks, with funds flowing towards companies benefiting from the domestic economic recovery, low oil prices, and interest rate cuts, indicating a rebound in market risk appetite.
Analyst Mark further stated that the Fed plans to inject massive liquidity this week, and the balance sheet might start expanding again. Although the "altcoin season" has been delayed, it has not been canceled, and the market still needs to pay attention to future trends. He believes this liquidity expansion will provide potential support for risk assets, including the cryptocurrency market.
However, there is a divergence of views in the market regarding the correlation between the Russell 2000 and altcoins.
Ash Crypto believes that the Russell 2000 index is an important barometer for risk assets like cryptocurrencies; historical data shows that Ethereum and altcoins usually follow the Russell 2000 to reach new highs. However, analyst Tony Severino warned that since July 2016, the historical correlation between the Russell 2000 and altcoins has turned negative for the first time, and the downtrend is intensifying. He advised investors not to blindly rely on past market patterns in the current complex macroeconomic environment.
Additionally, analyst Zach Humphries noted that the total market capitalization chart of altcoins shows a clear bearish retest pattern; if key technical levels are not effectively reclaimed, the current rebound may merely be an exit signal.
Key Data (as of April 22, 1:00 PM HKT)
（Data Source: Coinank, Upbit, SoSoValue, CryptoBubbles）
Bitcoin ETF: +11.8442 million USD, continuing 6 days of net inflow
Ethereum ETF: +43.3589 million USD, continuing 9 days of net inflow
Fear and Greed Index: 32 (Fear)
Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: CHIP, BTC, PIEVERSE, XRP, ETH
Sector performance: The cryptocurrency market mostly pulled back, but SocialFi, AI sectors, etc., saw slight increases
24-hour liquidation data: A total of 92,545 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $375 million, of which $176 million in BTC, $84.49 million in ETH, and $12.47 million in RAVE.
Today's Outlook
IBM and Tesla will release Q1 financial reports after trading on April 23 Beijing time
First-time claims for unemployment benefits in the U.S. for the week ending April 18 (10,000 people) (April 23, 8:30 PM)
Limitless (LMTS) will unlock approximately 85.37 million tokens on April 22, worth about $8.5 million
Hyperlane (HYPER) will unlock approximately 89.75 million tokens on April 22, worth about $8.6 million
aPriori (APR) will unlock approximately 31.88 million tokens on April 23, worth about $5.3 million
Today’s top 100 cryptocurrencies with the largest increase: MemeCore up 26.3%, Sei up 9.9%, Monero up 9.5%, Dash up 8.7%, Cosmos up 6.9%.
Hot News
Grayscale: Bitcoin price may have formed a stable bottom in the $65,000 to $70,000 range
Russia has read a bill on cryptocurrency; the central bank will lead market access
Sui ecosystem protocol Volo discloses being attacked, resulting in a loss of about $3.5 million
Etherealize updates long-term ETH price prediction to $250,000
US media: SpaceX reportedly agrees to acquire AI company Cursor for over $50 billion
Prediction market Kalshi and Polymarket plan to launch perpetual contract trading
Coinbase will launch perpetual contracts for gold (GOLD) and silver (SILVER)
“Set 10 Major Goals First” Whale Reopens Long BTC Positions Worth $54.33 Million
Binance launches AI infrastructure lending protocol token CHIP and marks seed label
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