What to know : Bitcoin is trading roughly flat near $74,700 after a strong week, as a record-setting global equity rally pauses ahead of next week's U.S.-Iran cease-fire deadline. Deeply negative bitcoin perpetual funding rates show the market is heavily short, raising the risk of a sharp short squeeze that some traders say could push prices toward $125,000 in the coming months. On-chain data suggest many active bitcoin holders are currently underwater, pointing to the possibility that any squeeze-driven rally could ultimately be sold into, with the outcome hinging on whether the U.S.-Iran cease-fire is extended.
Bitcoin traded around $74,700 in Asian morning hours Friday, down 0.4% over 24 hours but still up 3.5% on the week, as a 10-day rally in global equities paused ahead of next week's U.S.-Iran ceasefire expiry.
Ether gave back 1.4% to $2,327 but still leads the majors on the weekly tape at 6%, extending the outperformance that emerged earlier this week. XRP held $1.43 with a 6.4% weekly gain, solana ticked up 2.7% to $87.67, BNB added 0.7% to $629.89, and dogecoin was up 5.6% on the week at $0.0976.
The MSCI All Country World Index closed at a record high Thursday before slipping 0.1% in Asia. The S&P 500 also hit an all-time high. Brent crude fell 1.2% to $98.20 after President Donald Trump said prospects for a permanent Iran ceasefire were "looking very good."
Trump claimed, without evidence, that Tehran had agreed to give up its nuclear ambitions, turn over nuclear material, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz as part of the deal. Iran has not confirmed those concessions.
A 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon was announced separately on Thursday, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirming the truce in a video message. Markets are trading the headlines as if the deal is closer than it is, which is part of why equities have unwound most of the war premium while crude remains near $98 and the Strait of Hormuz is still effectively shut.
However, the setup underneath the flat bitcoin price action is what some traders are paying attention to.
Bitcoin perpetual funding rates have turned deeply negative in recent sessions, reaching levels last seen in 2023. Funding is the periodic payment perpetual futures traders exchange with each other to keep contract prices aligned with spot. When it goes negative, shorts are paying longs, which only happens when the market is heavily positioned against price.
"Funding rates this negative tell you the market is heavily short," Daniel Reis-Faria, CEO of ZeroStack, said in a note shared with CoinDesk. "If Bitcoin continues to move higher despite that, a lot of those positions could get liquidated, and the move can accelerate quickly."
Reis-Faria expects bitcoin could reach $125,000 in the next 30 to 60 days if the short base gets squeezed out.
"It's a reminder that no matter how much shorting is in the market, the amount of buy pressure, especially from large companies, can squeeze those positions out," he said.
The contrarian read from on-chain analyst CryptoVizArt is that bitcoin's "True Market Mean," a metric that estimates the average cost basis of active investors by filtering out lost and dormant coins, suggests the average active holder is currently underwater.
Since 2016, meaningful stretches below the True Market Mean have aligned with bitcoin's worst periods, including the 2018-19 bear (-57% max drawdown, 282 days) and the 2022-23 unwind after the Luna and FTX collapses (-56%, 339 days).
The two reads do not have to be in conflict. A short squeeze from negative funding and a structural drawdown from underwater holders can both be true, with the former triggering the kind of outsized rally that ultimately gets sold into by the latter.
Which scenario dominates likely depends on whether the U.S.-Iran ceasefire extension holds past next week.
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