Author: Deep Tide TechFlow

U.S. Stocks: Historical high for three consecutive days, the fastest V-shaped reversal since 1928

On Thursday, Wall Street continued to run at historical highs.

The S&P 500 rose 0.26% to 7,041.28 points, setting a historical record for the third consecutive trading day. The Nasdaq rose 0.36% to 24,102.70 points, marking its twelfth consecutive day of gains, the longest streak since 2009, also hitting a historical high. The Dow Jones rose 115 points (+0.24%) to 48,578.72 points.

Bespoke Investment Group uncovered a shocking statistic: it took the S&P 500 just 11 trading days to recover from a maximum 9% pullback to set a new record, the fastest V-shaped reversal since records began in 1928.

So far this week, the S&P has risen 3.3%, the Nasdaq 5.2%, and the Dow 1%.

The catalyst propelling the stock market to new heights was news the market had been awaiting for weeks: Israel and Lebanon reached a 10-day ceasefire agreement.

Trump announced on Truth Social that he confirmed a call with Lebanese President Aoun and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, stating that both sides would officially start a 10-day ceasefire at 5 PM EST on Thursday.

The weight of this news goes far beyond its surface. Israel's military actions against Hezbollah were precisely why Iran announced a renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's logic is simple: you (Israel) strike my proxy (Hezbollah), which violates the ceasefire, so I close the strait. Now that Israel agrees to a ceasefire → Iran loses its last excuse to close the strait → the probability of the strait reopening significantly increases → oil prices are pressured → inflation expectations cool down → interest rate cut expectations warm up.

The market is also digesting another positive signal: the U.S. and Iran are discussing an extension of the two-week ceasefire expiring on April 22 through indirect channels. White House spokesperson Levitt confirmed that the U.S. is "still deeply involved in negotiations."

On the corporate earnings front, PepsiCo's stock rose 0.3% after reporting better-than-expected first-quarter results, and Bank of New York Mellon rose 1.3%. Netflix's earnings report was released after hours.

Regional Fed data sent out mixed signals. The Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index jumped to 26.7 (much better than expected), but the prices paid index soared nearly 15 points to 59.3, and the employment index fell to -5.1. The New York Fed's services index remains negative (-14), but the prices paid index skyrocketed to 73.8, "intense acceleration in input price growth."

In layman's terms: economic activity is okay, but corporate costs are soaring, and they are laying off workers to cope. This is a microcosm of stagflation.

Former Federal Reserve Governor Loretta Mester candidly stated in an interview: "There is a scenario where inflation continues to rise. The Fed must be prepared for this." Federal funds futures currently price in a year-end rate holding steady at 3.50%-3.75%, with no expectations of rate cuts.

Oil Prices: $93, Israel-Lebanon ceasefire removes last risk premium

WTI fell 1.44% to $93.33 per barrel. Brent rose slightly to $98.34.

The 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon is the core driver of today's decline in oil prices. This news removed Iran's last "justifiable reason" to keep the strait closed due to Israel's targeting of Hezbollah. If Israel halts its strikes, Iran continuing to close the strait would simply be a matter of confrontation, with no excuse of "Israel violating the ceasefire" as cover.

From mid-March's $116 to today’s $93, WTI has fallen 20%. However, from the pre-war price of $61, it is still 53% higher. The war premium has been squeezed out by about half.

Trump expressed optimism about a "permanent ceasefire" after hours, and Bloomberg reported oil prices fell further in early Asian trading. If the ceasefire is extended + the strait begins substantial navigation, analysts' consensus target range is $80-85, indicating there is still a 10-15% downside potential.

However, Aakash Doshi from State Street reminds: normalizing oil prices to $80-85 requires a complete restoration of strait passage, which will take at least a month. "Normalization of Middle Eastern oil and gas production is a process that takes months," a judgment that first appeared in our daily report two weeks ago and remains valid.

Gold: Steady around $4,822

Gold prices continue to consolidate around $4,822, with little movement.

In an environment where the S&P has hit new highs for three consecutive days, a ceasefire has been reached between Israel and Lebanon, and oil prices have fallen to $93, gold has not declined, which reaffirms the "double insurance" logic: peace → expectations of interest rate cuts → positive for gold. The resistance zone of $4,800-4,850 is being slowly digested, and the longer it stays at this position, the higher the probability of a breakout.

Kevin Warsh's Senate hearing is scheduled for next Tuesday (April 21). If this person nominated by Trump to be the next Federal Reserve Chair gives any dovish signals during the hearing, even just hinting at an "open attitude" towards rate cuts, gold could break through $4,850 in a single day and rush towards $5,000.

Cryptocurrency: BTC at $74,000 gaining traction, Israel-Lebanon ceasefire opens new space

Bitcoin is trading narrowly around $74,000, maintaining its position near post-war highs.

The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire has an indirect but profound impact on the crypto market: Israel halting strikes on Hezbollah → Iran losing the excuse to close the strait → potential reopening of the strait → oil prices continuing to decline → inflation expectations cooling down → rate cut expectations warming up → the narrative of liquidity easing returning → BTC benefiting. Each link is moving in the right direction.

From a technical perspective, BTC is building a new support platform in the $74,000-$75,000 range. This process may take a few days of sideways digestion, but as long as it does not fall below the $72,000 retracement support, the upward structure remains intact. The next target range is $78,000-$80,000.

A macro comparison worth noting: the S&P 500 has already reached a historical high (surpassing pre-war peaks), the Nasdaq has also hit a historical high, and the Dow is close to its historical high. However, BTC at $74,000 is still 41% away from the historical high of $126,198. This indicates that the "peace premium" in the crypto market has not been fully priced in.

If a ceasefire extension is successfully achieved before April 22 and oil prices further decline to below $85, BTC's challenge of $80,000 at the end of April is realistic. The FOMC meeting (April 28-29) and Warsh's hearing (April 21) will provide additional catalysts.

CoinDesk's previous analytical framework is being validated: "If oil prices continue to fall by 15-16%, Bitcoin is expected to challenge $80,000." From the pre-ceasefire price of $112 to today’s $93, oil prices have already dropped by 17%.

Today's Summary: All bottlenecks are being cleared

What happened this week?

Monday: Talks break down in Islamabad + U.S. military blocks the strait → futures plummet 1% → Trump "the other side called" → Dow rebounds from -400 to +301.

Tuesday: PPI significantly lower than expected → Nasdaq ten consecutive days of gains → oil prices plummet 8% → BTC breaks 74,000.

Wednesday: S&P first breaks 7,000 to set a historical high → Nasdaq closes above 24,000 for the first time → eleven consecutive days of gains break all-time record.

Thursday: Israel-Lebanon 10-day ceasefire → S&P sets a new high for the third consecutive day → Nasdaq eleven consecutive days of gains → oil prices drop to $93.

Within a week, the market has completed a180-degree shift from "panic of failed negotiations" to "consecutive record-breaking euphoria." The S&P 500 achieved a V-shaped reversal from a 9% pullback to a new high in just 11 days, the fastest since 1928.

Next Tuesday, Warsh will testify in the Senate. Next Tuesday/Wednesday, the ceasefire expires on April 22. These two dates will determine whether this rebound is the prologue to a new bull market or the last sunny day before the storm.