“Insiders” are probably a presence that stock traders both love and hate. They love it because if they can keep up with their rhythm, it equals knowing the answer in advance; they hate it because the cards in their hands are always hidden from view.

However, even the most well-informed insiders have their limitations in the stock market. You may know that the U.S. is going to strike Iran, but how much the related military stocks will rise, when they will rise, and whether they will be affected by macro emotions in between are all variables beyond control.

Today we will discuss 5 insiders who, without needing to consider the targets, entry timing, or even worry about exposing their identities, made $1.3 million from a few trades by exploiting information asymmetry. Among them, some were trading just half an hour before the U.S.-Iran conflict began, while others made a 20-fold profit from two trades.

Their “cash-out channels” come from Polymarket, a prediction market platform based on the anonymity characteristic of blockchain. Unlike trading stocks, commodities, and other targets, what is traded in prediction markets is “whether this will happen.” If the event occurs as expected, those who buy “yes” profit, while those who buy “no” lose everything.

Knowing that “Trump will talk peace with Iran next week,” the least risky way to profit is to predict with others that “there will definitely be talks between the U.S. and Iran next week.”

Today, we will analyze the data of these 5 accounts and see why their profiles fit the characteristics of “insiders.”

With a capital of $20,000, two trades, and a twenty-fold compounding

Since 2026, there have been three particularly remarkable geopolitical trading events on Polymarket: the arrest of Maduro, the U.S.-Israel joint strike on Iran, and the U.S.-Iran ceasefire announcement. These three trading events contributed a total of $860 million in trading volume to the platform.

The 5 accounts mentioned today made a substantial profit in a very short time by continuously betting on these globally shocking geopolitical events. For example, Account 1, after successfully predicting the timing of the U.S.-Israel conflict with an investment of $20,000, again fully invested in betting on the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, earning $400,000 for a 20-fold profit.

More intriguingly, the registration times of these accounts were in December 2025 and February of this year: one was before Maduro was arrested, and the other was on the eve of the current U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict. Yet, the total number of markets they participated in on this platform is very few, as if their purpose was simply to participate in bets they knew would win.

If the registration time, few trade numbers, and high profits are still not enough to prove their insider profile, the truly suspicious aspects are the next two matters.

“Small bets are for fun; big bets are because I know I can’t lose”

One of the biggest differences between gamblers and insiders is that insiders know the outcomes of their bets, so they dare to make large bets on certain opportunities. The characteristics displayed by these 5 accounts perfectly illustrate the distinction between them and gamblers.

By calculating the proportion of each account's investment in these three events against their total investments, it can be seen that while the amounts invested by these five accounts vary, their proportion data is highly uniform. Even the most dispersed Account 2 has 93% of its funds betting on the related markets.

This level of concentration is statistically anomalous. Even analytical speculators focusing on geopolitics usually spread positions across dozens of markets to manage uncertainty. The choices of these 5 accounts resemble the strategy of identifying a few targets and betting almost all their chips, disregarding other markets.

Predicting the market for “war is about to start” just 21 minutes before it starts

If the concentration of funds is the outline of the profile, the timing of their positions is the most direct evidence.

At around 14:20 Beijing time on February 28, an explosion was heard in Tehran, the capital of Iran, and Israel announced an attack on Iran. At the same time, the market’s probability of “Will the U.S. strike Iran before February 28?” surged from 20% to 99% in a short time, before being settled.

Of the three accounts participating in this market, two bet “yes” on the day of the strike, with Account 3 placing its first bet 21 minutes before the attack. This bet quadrupled within half an hour.

The situation regarding the market “Will the U.S. × Iran ceasefire before April 15?” is even more jaw-dropping. The three accounts involved in this market had already bought “yes” options half a month before the ceasefire, and their positions shrank by more than 80% in the following two weeks as tensions escalated.

In early April, while most macro analysts and think tanks were claiming that the “conflict is about to escalate into ground warfare,” these three accounts were putting in more funds, confident that a ceasefire would be reached within the next two weeks.

On April 8 at 06:32 Beijing time, Trump announced a ceasefire on Truth Social, causing the probability to rise sharply from 20% to 100%. These three accounts made nearly $750,000 from this ceasefire.

Losses actually solidify the insider profile

These 5 accounts are not without flaws—Accounts 3 and 4 both lost money in the market of “Will Maduro resign within 2025?” At first glance, this loss is enough to clear them of suspicions as insiders.

However, if we combine this with Trump’s media interview the day after Maduro’s arrest, this loss actually confirms the profile of the two as insiders.

On January 4, 2026, Trump revealed during an interview with Fox News that the U.S. military originally planned to execute the Venezuela operation on December 29, 2025, but had to wait for several days due to unsuitable weather windows, ultimately carrying it out on January 3.

In other words, if the weather had cooperated, Maduro would have been captured within 2025, and “Will Maduro resign within 2025?” would have settled as “yes,” making the $12,000 loss for these two accounts turn into more than $400,000 in profit.

They lost due to the weather, not because they misjudged the event itself. Aware that Maduro was still in trouble, they continued to bet that “Maduro will resign by January 31, 2026,” ultimately making nearly $300,000 in profit.

Precedents exist: Some have been arrested for this

This is not the first time someone has exploited military insider information to profit on Polymarket.

In June 2025, Israel launched a 12-day military operation against Iran. Afterward, Israeli authorities investigated and prosecuted two men: a reservist major in the Israeli Air Force and his civilian accomplice.

According to the indictment, as Israeli warplanes were taking off to strike Iran, the major notified his accomplice, who then bought into the relevant market on Polymarket and made approximately $163,000 from this bet.

The ongoing U.S.-Venezuela situation has also caught the attention of U.S. law enforcement agencies. According to Fortune, multiple suspicious account transactions related to the U.S.-Venezuela situation raised red flags with the Southern District of New York law enforcement, which subsequently met with representatives from Polymarket to discuss “potential misconduct.”

Congressman Ritchie Torres subsequently proposed legislation to limit government employees’ participation in political-related event contracts. The case currently has no public indictment result, but the federal involvement in the investigation itself indicates that this is not an isolated coincidence.

The Israeli arrest case has confirmed that some people indeed came to Polymarket with military insider information, and some faced prosecution because of it. The 5 accounts analyzed in this article present a more systematic version—new accounts, highly concentrated funds, unusually timely entry points, and completely cashing out after event settlements.

Rather than discussing the legal risks these insiders might face, as bystanders, there is another potential opportunity: when insider funds flow into prediction markets, market prices themselves become a signal, allowing us to glimpse the future’s contours before events occur.

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