Author: Deep Tide TechFlow

US Stocks: 7,000 Points, a Record Unstoppable by War

On Wednesday, the S&P 500 closed at 7,022.95 points, marking the first time in history it surpassed the 7,000-point threshold, a new historical record.

The last time the S&P reached a historical high was on January 28 at 7,002.28 points. Since then, war broke out, and the S&P saw a maximum decline of over 7%. 47 days later, the index not only recovered all losses but also created a new height.

The performance of the Nasdaq was even more insane. It rose 1.59% to 24,016.02 points, closing above 24,000 points for the first time and also setting a historical high. More importantly, this marks the eleventh consecutive trading day of gains for the Nasdaq, establishing the longest streak of consecutive gains in the index's history. Nvidia also recorded its eleventh consecutive trading day of gains, which is also its longest record.

The Dow was the only exception, falling slightly by 0.15% to 48,463.72 points, dragged down by a -3% drop from Caterpillar. However, on a day when both the S&P and Nasdaq set historical highs, the Dow's slight dip was hardly noticed.

Steve Sosnick, Chief Strategist at Interactive Brokers, succinctly stated: "The stock market is expressing a viewpoint through its actions; the Gulf War is essentially over."

Big tech exploded across the board. Tesla surged 7.6% after Musk reignited market confidence in Tesla's "AI company" narrative by showcasing AI5 chip progress and a new version of onboard software. Microsoft rose 4.6%. Meta shares rose after announcing the deployment of 1GW custom AI chips using Broadcom technology, leading to a joint price increase for both companies.

Technology, consumer discretionary, and communication services were the only three sectors to outperform the market, and these three sectors happen to encompass all "Mag7" members. Materials, industrials, and utilities lagged behind. This was not a broad-based rally; it was a targeted breakout driven by large tech stocks.

Bank earnings continued to exceed expectations. Morgan Stanley surged over 5% after posting record quarterly revenue, Bank of America rose 2.5%, both driven by earnings that beat forecasts. The first quarter banking profits are proving that even in a war and high-interest-rate environment, Wall Street's money-making machine is still running smoothly.

The key geopolitical catalyst comes from Pakistan. General Munir of the Pakistani Army arrived in Tehran to help drive the renewal of the ceasefire before it expires on April 22. Trump stated that the war he initiated is "drawing to a close." Although there are no specific details, the market is already pricing in a "peace premium."

Another noteworthy agenda: the Senate Banking Committee will hear testimonies from Trump-nominated Federal Reserve Chair candidate Kevin Warsh next Tuesday (April 21). The Powell era is entering its countdown.

Oil Prices: $91, the Lowest Range Since the War

WTI fell 0.4% to $90.95 per barrel, while Brent slightly rose to around $94.84. Oil prices are experiencing narrow fluctuations within the $90-95 range.

Since the $61 level before the war broke out at the end of February, oil prices are still nearly 50% higher. However, from the March peak of $116, they have dropped by 21%. The war premium is slowly being squeezed out.

Several key variables are acting simultaneously:

The Pakistani military chief flies to Tehran to negotiate ceasefire renewal → Expectations for peace talks to restart rise → Oil prices come under pressure. However, the strait remains in a dual blockade status (Iran + the US each controlling one end), and actual passage remains close to zero. The decline in oil prices reflects improvement in "expectations," not "reality."

The White House's attitude is also subtly changing. Previously, Trump stated on Truth Social that the US would "help resolve the passage blockage in the strait," which is interpreted as a possible proactive push by the US to restore partial passage in the strait before the ceasefire renewal, which could be a catalyst for further oil price decline.

However, Macquarie's Wizman’s earlier warning still resonates: "Given the huge gap in core demands between the US and Iran, it is hard to see the strait truly opening within the two timelines." There are still 6 days until the ceasefire expires.

Gold: $4,822, Silence on Record Day

Gold prices fluctuated slightly around $4,822.

On a day when the S&P set a historical high, oil prices dipped to their lowest since the war, and risk appetite fully rebounded, the fact that gold did not decline itself indicates a problem. The traditional logic of "risk on = gold price decline" has failed in 2026. Gold is benefiting simultaneously from two completely different narratives: If peace comes → oil prices crash → expectations for interest rate cuts return → favorable for gold; if war resumes → demand for safe-haven assets surges → also favorable for gold.

The consolidation of gold prices in the $4,800-$4,850 range is building up strength for the next breakout. If it stabilizes above $4,850, the next target is $4,980, followed by the $5,000 round figure. State Street's baseline scenario remains $4,750-$5,500.

It is noteworthy that Trump today publicly renewed pressure on Powell, demanding he "step down soon." Warsh’s Senate hearing is scheduled for April 21. If Warsh gives dovish signals during the hearing (implying possible interest rate cuts upon taking office), gold could see a significant rise.

Cryptocurrency: BTC Cruising Above $74,000, Waiting for CLARITY Bill

Bitcoin fluctuated narrowly around $74,000, maintaining the post-war new high range.

On a day when both the S&P and Nasdaq set historical highs, BTC did not surge significantly, which is not a bad signal but rather a digestion of the past 8 days' 12% increase. From a technical perspective, the $74,000-$75,000 range is the new support area after the previous dense short position zone was breached, with BTC transforming this "battlefield" into a "base."

Today (April 16), there is an event highly anticipated by the cryptocurrency market: the SEC is holding a roundtable on the CLARITY bill. This bill aims to clarify which regulatory agency (SEC or CFTC) is responsible for overseeing digital assets. If discussions release positive signals, such as a preference for CFTC regulation of the spot market or clearing compliance barriers for institutional entry, BTC might receive short-term catalysts.

A larger macro narrative is forming: S&P 7,000+ Nasdaq 24,000+ oil price 91 → Inflation expectations cool → Expectations for interest rate cuts return to the table → Liquidity expectations improve → BTC benefits. If this logic chain is further validated in the next two weeks (ceasefire renewal + oil price continues to fall + April 28-29 FOMC releases dovish signals), BTC challenging $80,000 will become realistic.

An interesting data point: From February 28 when the war broke out to today, the S&P 500 dropped from about 6,900 to 6,400 and then back to 7,023, with a net effect creating a historical high. The Nasdaq dropped from about 23,000 to 20,500 and then rose to 24,016, also setting a new high. However, BTC dropped from about 85,000 to 65,000 and then up to 74,000, still 42% away from the historical high of $126,198.

The rebound in the cryptocurrency market is far from over.

Today's Summary: Create a New High from the Ruins of War

On April 16, the 48th day of the US-Iran war, this is a day that will be recorded in financial history:

US Stocks: The S&P breaks 7,000 points for the first time, setting a historical high (7,022.95). The Nasdaq rises for eleven consecutive days, breaking the all-time record, and closes above 24,000 points.

Oil Prices: WTI drops to $90.95, the lowest range since the war. Recovering expectations for peace talks + the Pakistani military's mediation in Tehran drive this.

Gold: $4,822 holds steady. The dual insurance of "peace benefits" and "safe-haven benefits" provides support for gold prices in any scenario.

Cryptocurrency: BTC consolidates above $74,000. The SEC's roundtable on the CLARITY bill takes place today, and regulatory clarity may provide a catalyst for the next market wave.

One numerical comparison says it all:

47 days ago, Trump and Israel jointly airstriked Iran, killing the highest spiritual leader, Khamenei; the Strait of Hormuz was blocked; oil prices soared from $61 to $116; the S&P plummeted from 7,000 points to 6,400 points; Bitcoin dropped from 85,000 to 65,000; the fear and greed index fell to 5, even lower than during the Terra/LUNA crash in 2022.

Today, 47 days later: S&P 7,023 points, a historical high. Nasdaq 24,016 points, a historical high. Oil price $91. The war continues, the Strait remains under dual blockade, nuclear issues remain unresolved, and the ceasefire expires in 6 days.

But the market has already made its judgment.

Sosnick from Interactive Brokers said it best: "The stock market is expressing a viewpoint through its actions; the Gulf War is essentially over."

Either the market is right, just as the stock market in 1942 saw victory during the darkest moments of the war.

Or 800 ships stranded in the Gulf will remind everyone: the price of 7,000 points may not have been fully paid yet.