Recently, Deep Tide published an article "The $59 Billion Mirage: How the Female Version of Buffett Fell from Grace?" (For details, see the reference link).

This article reflects on Cathie Wood's successes and failures in investments over the past few years. Analyzing from the perspective of investment returns, the conclusion drawn is somewhat pessimistic.

However, I still want to look at her investment situation as objectively as possible, so I searched online for her past investment history.

Her Ark Fund (hereinafter referred to as ARKK) was established in 2014. Initially, it was very small, with only several tens of millions of dollars. The fund started gaining traction around 2018, when its size reached about $5 billion.

From 2020 to 2021, her fund began to stand out, with its managed scale skyrocketing to $20 billion.

Later, at its peak, the size of her fund reached $59 billion.

But now, her fund size has shrunk to about $13 billion.

From its establishment in 2014 to the present (2026), ARKK has recorded an average annualized return of about 12%. The annualized return of the S&P 500 index during the same period is also around 12%.

This means that over the past 12 years, her fund has roughly matched the S&P in terms of returns.

Objectively speaking, in terms of annualized returns, ARKK's performance hasn't been that bad, as at least 80% of fund managers on Wall Street typically underperform the S&P 500 over the long term. Her performance at least exceeds that of 80% of fund managers on Wall Street.

However, due to her once outstanding performance and the dazzling sectors she chose, expectations for her were very high, leading to a pessimistic conclusion.

The above are cold hard numbers.

Now I'll share my personal feelings.

Over the years, Cathie Wood has been one of the investment industry celebrities I frequently follow.

I generally categorize some celebrities in the investment world into two types:

One type is those whose investment methods I focus on and learn from. Buffett, Munger, and Duan Yongping belong to this category.

The other type is those whose investment perspectives I focus on and learn from, especially regarding sectors, trends, and future development forecasts. Cathie Wood is a very typical example of this type.

Her judgments about the development trends of high-tech sectors have provided me with significant insights in many ways.

In my view, her biggest strength is her ability to capture subtle details in emerging things that are not easily noticed and to delve into these details to imagine a sector and field from them.

In this regard, her early observations and research on Bitcoin and Tesla are the most typical examples. She was able to identify minute differences between them and existing things before they were noticed or discovered by others, then envision their future.

My focus and observations on areas like AI, autonomous driving, and biomedicine were greatly inspired by her viewpoints early on. The predictions and perspectives she publishes annually on cutting-edge sectors have always been material I regularly pay attention to and learn from.

However, there are also very obvious aspects that make me uncomfortable:

The first is her frequent short-term price predictions on certain targets.

The second is her mysterious trading operations on some investment targets.

I often say in my articles that I believe there must be people in this world who can accurately predict short-term trends, but those people are either geniuses or favored by destiny; ordinary people should avoid developing that habit.

However, Cathie Wood exhibits this habit. Unfortunately, based on her past predictive results, it is clear that she is neither a genius nor someone favored by destiny in this regard.

I suspect that her habit of liking to predict short-term trends has led to her frequently executing some "mysterious operations" in trading.

In this regard, her operations on Bitcoin and Tesla are also the most difficult for me to understand.

She purchased Bitcoin in 2015 at a price of about $250.

She bought Tesla in 2014 at around $200. However, it is important to note that when adjusted for today's price, her adjusted cost for Tesla in 2014 was only around $13 - $17.

For these two investment targets, she has repeatedly bought and sold them several times, resulting in her not making the substantial profits she could have from these two treasures.

If many early investors in Bitcoin and Tesla entered those positions purely by luck and didn't understand the value of these two targets, she is different; she had extraordinary research and insights on these two targets when she first invested.

In such a situation, if she bought those but couldn't hold onto them, the only reason I can think of is that her understanding of investing is still somewhat lacking.

Reference link:

https://x.com/TechFlowPost/status/2039556815529398622?s=20

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