Author: Psyduck Fomo

Chip distribution: 6 multi-signature wallets have locked 96% of the coins, with one address holding 77% alone. Retail holdings add up to less than 0.1%. Bitget is the main battlefield for spot, with 88% of exchange spots on Bitget.

Contract distribution: The open interest has exceeded all available spot on the exchange, with an OI/spot ratio of 102.9%. Short sellers do not have enough goods to close their positions, creating a classic short squeeze deadlock. OKX accounts for 64.7% of the OI, making it the biggest powder keg. Once OKX triggers a liquidation chain, the impact will be greater than all other exchanges combined. The overall funding rate is negative, and the short squeeze is far from over.

Liquidation level: $41.61 million has been liquidated in the past 24 hours, with 73% being short positions. Bybit + Gate.io account for 53% of the liquidations, a heavy disaster area for retail high leverage. The liquidation/OI ratio on Gate.io is as high as 35.65x. Binance has the most effective risk control — holding 22.3% of the OI but only contributing 8.3% of the liquidations, with the lowest liquidation/OI ratio of 0.37x in the market. Tiered margin and forced liquidation engines are indeed protecting users.

1. Spot chip distribution

Core finding: 6 Gnosis Safe multi-signature wallets control 96.36% of the supply. Among them, the #1 address holds 76.94%, which is the absolutely controlling address.

1.1 Team/Contract wallets (96.41%, 11 addresses)

1.2 CEX exchanges (3.56%, a total of 15 addresses)

Core finding: Bitget is the absolute main battlefield for spot trading, with cold + hot wallets totaling 3.15% (30.77 million RAVE), accounting for 88.3% of all CEX spots.

1.3 Personal wallets EOA (0.06%, a total of 54 addresses)

Core finding: Retail holdings can be almost ignored (totaling less than 600,000 RAVE). Arthur Hayes only holds 6,250 coins, while the Amber Group market maker holds only 80,000 coins.

2. Contract OI (open interest) distribution

The contract OI ($294 million) has exceeded all spot on the exchange ($294 million), with an OI/spot ratio = 102.9%. Short sellers do not have enough spots to close their positions - a classic short squeeze situation. OKX exclusively accounts for 64.7% of the OI, which is the largest chain liquidation risk point in the entire market.

2.1 Summary of all exchanges OI

3. Liquidation data analysis

The total liquidation in 24 hours is $41.61 million, of which 73.2% ($30.46 million) are short positions, primarily liquidating shorts. Bybit and Gate.io account for 52.9% of the liquidations, which are heavy disaster areas for retail high leverage. Binance's risk control system is the most effective — holding 22.3% OI but only contributing 8.3% liquidations, with the lowest liquidation/OI ratio in the market (0.37x).

3.1 Overview of 24-hour liquidations

3.2 Liquidation ranking by exchange (24h)

3.3 Key finding: Binance's risk control is remarkable

Binance holds 22.3% of the OI but contributes only 8.32% of the liquidations (liquidation/OI ratio: 0.37x). Tiered margin + forced liquidation engines + risk reserves effectively protect users in extreme market conditions. In contrast, Gate.io's liquidation/OI ratio reaches as high as 35.65x, while Bybit is 2.63x.

4. Main battlefield determination

For spot, look at Bitget (88.3% CEX spot), for contracts, look at OKX (64.7% OI), for liquidations, look at Bybit + Gate.io (52.9% liquidations), for risk control, look at Binance (0.37x lowest liquidation ratio).

5. Net signal monitoring checklist

Current status: The market makers have not yet offloaded, and the short squeeze is continuing. However, 96% of the chips are in 6 wallets, allowing market makers to pump or dump at any time. The following are the key signals to monitor for net closure.