Written by: Xiao Bing, Deep Tide TechFlow

Introduction: With a net worth exceeding $200 million and having invested in Polymarket, Kevin Warsh is just 30 days and one crucial vote away from taking the helm of the Federal Reserve.

Next Monday, April 21, at 10 AM, in Washington, D.C.

Kevin Warsh will sit in the Senate Banking Committee's hearing room, facing questioning. If all goes well, he will become the first chairman in the history of the Federal Reserve to have openly invested in Polymarket, Solana, and Bitcoin's Lightning Network startup.

But things will not go smoothly.

In this hearing room, one of the 13 Republican committee members has publicly declared: regardless of what Warsh says, he will vote against him. This person is Thom Tillis, the Republican senator from North Carolina.

His opposition has nothing to do with Warsh himself. The reason he opposes is that the Department of Justice is still investigating current Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

This investigation originated from the renovation costs of a building.

$2.5 billion renovation case: A precise strike against the independence of the Federal Reserve

The story dates back to 2025.

The renovation project for the Federal Reserve headquarters was severely over budget, ultimately costing around $2.5 billion. Powell testified about this before the Senate Banking Committee. D.C. federal prosecutor Jeanine Pirro subsequently initiated a criminal investigation, claiming Powell might have made misleading statements while testifying before Congress, and issued a grand jury subpoena to the Federal Reserve.

Powell's reaction was exceptionally intense. He publicly stated that the real purpose of this investigation was not the renovation overrun, but rather Trump’s retaliation for his refusal to lower interest rates more rapidly.

Tillis stood by Powell's side. This Republican senator, who is set to retire in 2027 and does not have to worry about re-election pressures, made a clear statement: "Protecting the Federal Reserve’s independence from political interference or legal intimidation leaves no room for negotiation."

His stance is very clear: he will not vote to confirm any Federal Reserve nominees, including Warsh, until the Justice Department concludes its investigation of Powell.

The Republicans only have a slim advantage on the Senate Banking Committee, with 13 seats to 11. Without Tillis's vote and with virtually all Democrats certain to oppose, Warsh's nomination cannot pass at the committee level.

On the other end of the investigation, prosecutor Pirro is unyielding. Federal Judge James Boasberg has already dismissed her subpoena, stating in his ruling that "the government has presented no evidence of fraud," suggesting that the main purpose of the investigation seems to be pressuring Powell. Pirro announced plans to appeal and openly referred to Tillis's obstruction as "white noise."

"I don’t care. I’m going down the legal route, and I don’t care what they say."

Three parties remain locked in a standoff. Warsh is caught in the middle.

Who will sit in the chair of the Federal Reserve after May 15?

Powell's chairmanship term expires on May 15. This is a hard deadline.

However, his term as a Federal Reserve Board member will not end until January 2028. This means that even if his term as chairman ends, he will still legally remain a member of the Federal Reserve Board.

Powell has made it clear: if Warsh fails to get confirmed before May 15, he will continue to helm the Federal Reserve as "acting chairman." New York Fed President John Williams has publicly supported this position, stating that the Federal Open Market Committee can "operate as usual" without needing another vote.

This creates an unprecedented situation: Trump has nominated a new chairman, but the old chairman refuses to leave, with both sides claiming the right to sit in that chair.

The White House clearly does not want to see this scenario. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said last week to reporters, "We hope Warsh will take office as soon as possible." National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett was even more optimistic, stating he has "high confidence" that Warsh can be in place before Powell's term ends. Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott predicted that "the Justice Department will wrap up its investigation in the coming weeks, and Tillis will ultimately vote in favor."

But these are just hopes, not facts. The reality is: from the April 21 hearing to May 15, there are only 24 days. In these 24 days, three steps must be completed: hearings, committee votes, and full Senate votes. Normally, this process takes weeks to months.

And what Tillis said to CNN today leaves no ambiguity: "I won't spend five minutes asking Warsh about his qualifications, because he is indeed qualified. I’ll spend five minutes discussing that fraudulent investigation, and until the investigation concludes, I will vote against him."

$192 million in a 69-page document: The wealth landscape of the next Federal Reserve chairman

While the political game intensifies, Warsh submitted a 69-page OGE 278e financial disclosure form on April 14. This document is not only a necessary prerequisite for the confirmation process but also a mirror reflecting what this potential next Federal Reserve chairman is truly like.

First is the scale. Warsh's personal assets are estimated to be between $131 million and $209 million, and his wife, Jane Lauder (a member of the Estée Lauder founding family, which Forbes estimates has a net worth of about $1.9 billion), has additional assets worth several hundred million dollars. If confirmed, he would become the richest chairman in Federal Reserve history, far surpassing Powell, who was previously considered the "richest Fed chairman" (with assets estimated between $19.7 million and $75 million). His core holdings include two investments over $50 million each in Juggernaut Fund LP, related to the legendary hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller's Duquesne family office. Warsh received $10.2 million in consulting fees from Duquesne, $1.55 million from GoldenTree Asset Management, $750,000 from Cerberus Capital, and $750,000 from Brevan Howard, all of which are institutions deeply involved in crypto and macro trading.

Then there are the more intriguing parts: through DCM Investments 10 LLC and the AVF series of funds, Warsh owns a series of equities in crypto and blockchain companies. These include the Ethereum L2 network Blast, decentralized prediction market Polymarket, Bitcoin Lightning Network payment company Flashnet, Ethereum development platform Tenderly, DeFi investment platform SkyLink, blockchain social network Arena and DeSo, and the crypto-focused investment firm Polychain. He has previously invested in Bitwise, which manages a spot Bitcoin ETF.

According to OGE rules, these unmarked positions mean each is valued at less than $1,000. The scale is small. But the signal is very strong.

This is not someone passively buying some Bitcoin spot ETFs in a brokerage account; his holdings actively span the entire crypto ecosystem, from L1 to L2, from DeFi to prediction markets, from payment infrastructure to developer tools, systematically positioning in dozens of cutting-edge projects. Every track he’s touched happens to be an area directly influenced by the Federal Reserve's regulatory and monetary policy decisions.

Warsh has committed to liquidating all assets that may present a conflict of interest upon confirmation. OGE certifying officer Heather Jones confirmed that after the liquidation, he will meet the requirements of the government ethics law.

But the issue is not whether he will sell these positions. The question is: what does it imply for someone with such a deep understanding of crypto infrastructure to sit in the chair of the Federal Reserve?

Two paths, two worlds

The market now faces a classic binary game.

Path A: Pirro withdraws the investigation, Tillis votes in favor, Warsh takes office in mid-May.

This is the scenario the White House is betting on. Scott Bessent openly said, "Let’s wait for the new chairman Warsh to lead the next round of the interest rate cycle," suggesting that Warsh might quickly push for interest rate cuts after taking office. Although Warsh has historically been a hawk (warning about inflation risks even during the 2008 financial crisis), recent signals indicate he is inclined to support interest rate cuts. For the crypto market, a Federal Reserve chairman who understands the crypto ecosystem and favors loosening liquidity would be the most beneficial combination.

Path B: Pirro insists on appealing, Tillis holds firm, Powell continues to lead as acting chairman.

This is a scenario full of uncertainty. Powell has made it clear that he will not leave the Federal Reserve Board until the investigation is concluded. If he continues to chair FOMC meetings and set interest rate policies in an acting capacity, Trump will face a Federal Reserve chairman who is "nominally resigned but effectively still in power." This constitutional-level debate regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve could potentially be resolved in the Supreme Court, which has yet to rule on whether Trump has the authority to dismiss Federal Reserve Board member Lisa Cook.

For the market, Path B signifies ongoing uncertainty. The direction of monetary policy will depend on the outcome of a legal tug-of-war, and no one can predict the timeline for that legal struggle.

What does this have to do with Bitcoin? Everything

On the surface, this is a political drama about Federal Reserve personnel in Washington. But for those in the crypto market, every variable directly points to asset prices.

Interest rate path. Warsh's ascension means rising expectations for interest rate cuts. Bessent has already been publicly urging, "Let Warsh lead the next cycle." Interest rate cuts are a certain boon for risk assets. If Powell continues in an acting role, he would likely maintain a "pause" position under the inflation risks from the U.S.-Iran war, which could delay rate cuts until the second half of the year or even later.

Regulatory signals. A Federal Reserve chairman who has invested in Polymarket, Tenderly, and Polychain, as opposed to Jerome Powell, who has previously stated, "If I were the government, I would shut down cryptocurrencies," will have a vastly different impact on the crypto regulatory environment. Warsh has referred to Bitcoin as a "good cop in policy," believing that the price of Bitcoin can tell policymakers when they are doing right and when they are doing wrong. This cognitive framework suggests he is unlikely to support hostile regulations against the crypto industry.

Stablecoin legislation. The timeline for Warsh's confirmation overlaps significantly with the legislative window that Congress is currently advancing for stablecoins. A pro-crypto Federal Reserve chairman could significantly accelerate this process.

During next Monday's hearing, Tillis will likely spend his five minutes of questioning time not asking Warsh a single question about monetary policy, but rather using the entire time to criticize Pirro's investigation. This scene itself will become the headline of global financial media.

The real suspense is not in the hearing itself but rather: Will Pirro withdraw the investigation before May 15? What is Tillis's bottom line? If neither side budges, will Trump intervene directly with the Justice Department?

There are 30 days left until Powell's term ends. In 30 days, who will sit in the chair of the Federal Reserve will redefine the rules of the game for the global capital markets in the second half of 2026.

For the crypto market, the significance of these 30 days may outweigh that of any FOMC meeting.