1. Macro Level

Geopolitics and US Stock Performance

The US-Iran conflict shows signs of easing, with differences in negotiations smaller than market expectations, leading to a rapid recovery in risk asset prices, including crude oil. Against this backdrop, coupled with the pressures of the US election and expectations of potential easing in US-China trade relations, US stocks, especially those in the upstream AI industry chain and individual stocks like Oracle, have experienced a strong rebound from oversold conditions. Currently, the direction for upward repair still has relatively less resistance. However, the tail risks in geopolitics remain high, and trading continues to be quite challenging.

Federal Reserve Monetary Policy (FOMC)

The latest FOMC meeting minutes indicate that internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve have further widened compared to the past, with the "interest rate hike" option explicitly included in discussions, showing a degree of hawkish turn in the overall stance. However, most members still prioritize concerns about the fragile balance in the labor market, and the market generally expects the probability of actual interest rate hikes to remain low this year.

Inflation Data (CPI) and Potential Inflation Risks

The overall CPI in March significantly rose due to energy prices, but the core CPI was slightly below expectations, indicating that energy prices have not yet significantly transmitted to core goods and services. However, if oil prices continue to stay above $80, it is likely that over the next 3 to 6 months, this will gradually transmit to supercore inflation. This could not only pose upward risks to inflation data in the coming months but also prompt a further hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve. Additionally, due to last year's base effect, housing rent data next month may have an unusually sharp increase.

2. Cryptocurrency Level

Market Trend and Overall Expectations

In this recent round of rebound, although BTC and ETH have not performed as prominently as in the previous downturn, they are still following the rebound of US stocks overall. Benefiting from the recovery in overall risk appetite in US stocks and the continuously strengthening expectations for the cryptocurrency bill (Clarity Act), the overall expectations for the Crypto market this year remain optimistic. However, some long-cycle macro indicators (such as related data from Glassnode) suggest that the current market may still be in a bear phase or in a range of repeated fluctuations at the bear market bottom, which aligns with Glassnode strategists' judgments on market cycles.

Divergence Among BTC, ETH, and Altcoins

Currently, there is still some disagreement in the market regarding the bottom position of Bitcoin, but the support level around $60,000 is relatively solid—this position was rapidly breached due to fund liquidations and thus holds some reference significance, likely becoming a phase bottom for the next uptrend, which is also closely monitored by market participants. In contrast, the altcoin market generally lacks fundamental support and shows more of a "strong whale dominance" characteristic, primarily relying on liquidation events and funding rate arbitrage to gain profits, resulting in significant price volatility and placing retail investors at a clear disadvantage. Therefore, the conference suggests shifting the focus of allocations more towards BTC and ETH at this stage to enhance the robustness of the strategy.

Micro Data on Trading and Funding Conditions

Spot and Derivatives: Overall spot trading volume remains low, but the active buying volume (CVD) stays high, reflecting that some "smart money" is actively participating in the rebound. Meanwhile, influenced by geopolitical factors, the trading heat in the derivatives market has increased, with overall funding rates being slightly negative (i.e., shorts paying funding to longs), while the options market shows that panic sentiment has not further expanded.

Institutional Funds: Bitcoin ETF saw overall net inflows last week, for instance, a single-day net inflow reaching $421 million. Based on the recent Bitcoin ETF performance, it maintains a steady net inflow trend, reflecting institutional willingness for long-term positioning in cryptocurrency assets; at the same time, MicroStrategy has significantly accelerated its buying pace recently, purchasing nearly 14,000 bitcoins in the recent period, further increasing its cumulative holdings, continuing its long-term strategy of increasing Bitcoin holdings.

This article is merely an analysis of market trends and does not constitute investment advice. Investment in digital assets carries high risk, and investors should make prudent decisions and bear relevant risks themselves.

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