Ron Hammond, head of policy at crypto market maker Wintermute, has a cautious outlook on the Clarity Act, putting its chances of passage this year at around 30% even as momentum builds in Washington.

“There are a lot of moving parts,” Hammond said, pointing to a legislative process that is advancing, but unevenly. The Clarity Act aims to create rules around crypto market structure regulation in the U.S., including codifying how the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission can oversee digital assets in the U.S.

Hammond's estimate broadly aligns with other signals in the market. A recent Punchbowl survey of lobbyists and staffers put the odds at 26%, while prediction market Kalshi has hovered just above even odds. The spread underscores how uncertain the bill’s trajectory remains.

Still, Hammond, who will be speaking at CoinDesk's Consensus Miami conference next month, sees incremental progress. Lawmakers are pushing to move the bill through committee, with some aiming for a vote as early as April 20, though he cautioned that such timelines have been fluid for months.

“These dates are moving,” he said. “There’s light at the end of the tunnel, but there are hurdles along the way.”

Passage of the Clarity Act is widely seen as a key unlock for institutional adoption of crypto because it would establish clear rules around which digital assets are securities versus commodities, and define how they can be traded, custodied and otherwise regulated in the U.S.

Today’s fragmented and uncertain framework has kept many large asset managers, banks and pension funds on the sidelines due to legal and compliance risks. A comprehensive market structure law would reduce that ambiguity, giving institutions the confidence to scale exposure, launch new products, and integrate crypto more fully into traditional financial systems.

Hurdles

At the center of those hurdles: banks.

According to Hammond, traditional financial institutions remain the biggest obstacle, particularly around the issue of whether stablecoins should offer yield. A recent report from the Council of Economic Advisers has pushed back on bank opposition, but negotiations remain stuck.

“There have been attempts from a number of sides: Coinbase (COIN), the White House, the bill’s drafters, to find a solution,” Hammond said. “But at every turn, the banks refuse to give way.”

The dispute has already derailed at least one compromise. Hammond said a proposed “yield deal” floated roughly two weeks ago failed to satisfy either side, sending negotiators back to the drawing board. A new version is now circulating, but expectations are tempered.

“Even with broader macro pressures, it’s hard to see how the banks get happy here,” he said.

Democrats

That resistance is shaping the politics around the bill, particularly for Democrats. Hammond noted that some lawmakers who have accepted crypto industry funding are now navigating a difficult balancing act.

“If you’re a Democrat who took crypto money, where do you stand on this issue?” he said, pointing also to unresolved concerns around decentralized finance (DeFi) and anti-money laundering compliance.

Additional political headwinds could emerge in the coming months. Hammond flagged ongoing scrutiny around former President Donald Trump’s crypto-related dealings as a potential flashpoint that could complicate Democratic support if it intensifies around June.

“All of that becomes another headache,” he said.

Despite the friction, Hammond believes the bill still has a viable, if narrow, path forward. Progress in committee and continued negotiations could keep it alive into midyear, when political incentives may shift.

“There will be some progress soon,” he said.

U.S. expansion

For Wintermute, the stakes are high. The firm, one of the largest crypto market makers globally with roughly $10 million in daily trading volume, is expanding its U.S. footprint, and growing its New York team.

Hammond said that reflects a broader industry commitment to the U.S. market, particularly under what firms see as a more favorable regulatory environment. "Wintermute has expanded operations since the election by establishing a U.S. office in NYC and we have been actively hiring," he added.

That makes the outcome of the Clarity Act all the more consequential. While Hammond sees “light at the end of the tunnel,” he emphasized that passage in 2026 will require breakthroughs that have so far proved elusive.

For now, 30% remains his number, and a reminder that progress in Washington does not always translate into results.

Read more: Bitcoin is stuck in a rut but JPMorgan says new legislation could be the ultimate spark