Recently, the research department of HTX under Huobi released the latest research report "Hormuz Shock, U.S. Midterms, and the Repricing of the Crypto Market", which dissects the complete path of how the energy supply shock transmits to the crypto market around Trump's national speech on the Iran issue on April 2 and the cross-asset movements it triggered, and combines the U.S. midterm elections and the game of crypto legislation to provide layered scenario judgments.

HTX Research believes that the macro trading framework has shifted from "risk preference recovery driven by easing expectations" to a suppression environment characterized by the overlap of geopolitical energy shocks, prolonged high interest rates, and rising policy uncertainty, and the short-term main line of the crypto market has shifted to defense, layering, and repricing. This judgment directly echoes the recently released "2026 Digital Asset Trend White Paper" by Huobi HTX — the white paper points out that in 2026, the volatility of digital assets "is more derived from changes in funding costs, yield curves, and the U.S. dollar index." This research report starts from a specific geopolitical shock to show how this transmission works on various crypto assets within 72 hours.

A set of market data breaking conventional understanding

The cross-asset reaction after Trump's speech constitutes a key entry point for understanding the current environment. Brent crude oil rose over 7% in a single day, reaching above $108 at one point; the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to about 4.37%; Bitcoin fell to the range of $66,000 to $67,000. If we only see this, it looks more like a standard safe-haven trade during war. But gold and silver fell at the same time — in traditional frameworks, war is almost a certainty for precious metals. The weakness of precious metals and BTC simultaneously indicates that the fundamental trading logic of the market lies elsewhere.

The real transmission chain is: oil price surge → inflation expectations revised up → Federal Reserve's rate cut space further compressed → U.S. dollar and real interest rates strengthened → global risk budget forced to shrink. This is a liquidity contraction shock, rather than the classic safe-haven shift of funds from risky assets to safe assets. For crypto investors, this distinction is crucial: in a classic safe-haven environment, BTC can tell the story of "digital gold," but in an overall liquidity contraction environment, almost all assets that rely on marginal capital inflows will be under pressure in the first stage. The "Huobi HTX 2026 Digital Asset Trend White Paper" made a highly consistent prediction in the systematic risk chapter: at the early stage of extreme geopolitical conflict, BTC's liquidity is still constrained by macro clearing pressures and will show high correlation with traditional risk assets. The movement on April 2 nearly validated this judgment item by item.

Why the Hormuz Shock transmits to the crypto market

The Strait of Hormuz is the core anchor point of this round of pricing. EIA and IEA data show that by 2025, nearly 15 million barrels/day of crude oil will be transported through this strait, accounting for more than one-third of global crude oil trade, of which China and India will together receive about 44%. Once navigation is limited, the hardest hit will be Asian importing countries and manufacturing economies based on imported energy, rather than the U.S. mainland. Trump emphasized in his speech that the U.S. does not rely on Middle Eastern oil, further strengthening market expectations of "the U.S. being relatively insulated while Eurasia bears the main shock."

This pattern has produced a seemingly counterintuitive result: the geopolitical escalation triggered by the U.S. instead leads to a stronger dollar. For global capital, the U.S. simultaneously possesses domestic energy expansion capabilities, dollar settlement advantages, and a stronger financing system. Against the backdrop of Europe lacking a unified energy moat and Asia heavily reliant on Hormuz, capital naturally flows back to the U.S. The strengthening of the dollar further suppresses liquidity in non-dollar currency zones — institutions in Europe and Asia, while responding to the depreciation of their currencies and rising energy costs, naturally see their risk budgets for allocating high-volatility assets shrink.

The endpoint of this chain is very clear for the crypto market: when the global risk budget shrinks, funds start to withdraw from the outer circle of risky assets. BTC, benefiting from the deepest liquidity and the highest institutional holding ratio, can still maintain relative resilience; most altcoins are at the outer circle of global dollar liquidity, relying most heavily on marginal capital inflows, thus being under pressure first in this round. This is also the underlying reason for the significant differentiation in the performance of different crypto assets during this shock.

Stablecoins and RWA: Highlighting value during shocks

Not all crypto sectors are equally pressured. When global macro uncertainty rises, energy costs increase, and traditional cross-border payment frictions grow, the settlement efficiency and programmability of dollar stablecoins become more attractive. Especially under the dual pressure of currency depreciation and rising energy prices in Asia and emerging markets, the demand for dollar stablecoins as a store of value and settlement tool may rise rather than fall — it provides a channel to bypass the traditional banking system and obtain dollar exposure with low friction.

The logic of the RWA sector is similar. When risk preferences contract and the market shies away from purely narrative assets, on-chain assets with real income support instead demonstrate defensive properties. U.S. Treasury RWA provides on-chain accessible risk-free yields, while private credit and corporate bond RWA offer fixed income returns higher than traditional channels, making them naturally more favored by capital in an environment of "light Beta, heavy structure."

The white paper provides a more macro context for this judgment: stablecoins have built a "on-chain dollar system" of over $300 billion and are becoming a new issuance channel for the dollar system; the RWA market has a compound annual growth rate of approximately 30% over three years, making it the most stable asset class in the crypto financial system. The differentiation logic revealed by this round of shock can be condensed into one sentence: altcoins are weak because they are in the outer circle of liquidity, while the resilience of stablecoins and RWA comes from being deeply embedded in real economic demand.

Four high-frequency signals determining market direction

Before macro pressures ease, "high volatility, heavy structure, light Beta" remains the main tone of the crypto market. HTX Research points out that there are four sets of high-frequency indicators worth closely monitoring in the next 6 to 10 weeks. The first is oil prices and shipping, with a core observation on whether Brent and WTI can sustainably fall below $100, as well as changes in Hormuz transit data and shipping insurance costs. The second is interest rates and the dollar, focusing on whether the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield and the dollar index have peaked, and how U.S. gasoline prices affect implied inflation expectations. The third is internal crypto data, including BTC ETF fund flows, net issuance of stablecoins, on-chain activity, perpetual contract funding rates, and altcoin trading volume proportions. The fourth is policy and elections, tracking the schedule of the CLARITY Act in the Senate, the direction of stablecoin revenue terms, and the bundling degree of crypto topics with inflation and oil price issues in key swing districts. If two or more of these groups of indicators start to improve, the crypto market is likely to enter a repair stage; conversely, deleveraging and repricing will still be the main theme.

About HTX Research

HTX Research is the exclusive research department under Huobi HTX, responsible for in-depth analysis of a wide range of areas including cryptocurrencies, blockchain technology, and emerging market trends, writing comprehensive reports and providing professional assessments. HTX Research is dedicated to providing data-driven insights and strategic foresight, playing a key role in shaping industry perspectives and supporting informed decision-making in the digital asset space. With a rigorous research methodology and cutting-edge data analysis, HTX Research is always at the forefront of innovation, leading the evolution of industry thought, and promoting a deeper understanding of the ever-changing market dynamics. Visit us.

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