Author: Deep Tide TechFlow

U.S. Stocks: Seven Straight Days of Gains, Dow Finally Returns to Square One

On Thursday, Wall Street navigated a day that seemed contradictory: oil prices rose again, the strait is still not truly open for navigation, initial jobless claims exceeded expectations, yet the stock market still rose.

The S&P 500 closed up 0.62% to 6,824.66 points, marking its seventh consecutive day of gains and setting the record for the longest winning streak since October last year. The Nasdaq rose 0.83% to 22,822.42 points. The key milestone belongs to the Dow, which rose 275.88 points (+0.58%) to 48,185.80 points, pushing the year-to-date return back to +0.25%. Six weeks of wartime panic were erased in a week of ceasefire rebound.

Morning trading was not optimistic. Iranian Speaker Ghalibaf claimed overnight that the ceasefire has "three clauses violated" and called negotiations with the U.S. "unreasonable." Trump hit back on social media: "If Iran does not comply with a real agreement, shooting will resume—bigger and stronger than anyone has ever seen." The three major indices opened lower, with the Dow at one point dropping over 200 points.

A turnaround came from an unexpected piece of news: Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu agreed to direct negotiations with Lebanon facilitated by the U.S. State Department. This news triggered a sharp rebound in the afternoon. Israel's strikes on Lebanon (resulting in 112 deaths in Beirut) were the direct reason for Iran's announcement to re-close the strait—if Israel is willing to talk, Iran loses one excuse to refuse to open the strait.

The logic chain of the market is: Israel talks with Lebanon → Iran loses the excuse of "Israeli default" → the probability of re-opening the strait rises → oil prices fall → inflationary pressure eases. Although the entire chain is weak, it is enough to support another bullish candlestick.

Sector-wise, technology continues to lead. BlackBerry surged 10% pre-market (better than expected earnings report), and CoreWeave rose due to expanded cooperation with Meta. Software stocks began to diverge after consecutive increases, with some companies showing profit-taking.

In terms of economic data, two sets of numbers are noteworthy. The core PCE price index rose 3.0% year-on-year in February, in line with expectations—this is the inflation indicator that the Federal Reserve pays the most attention to. While 3.0% is significantly above the 2% target, at least it has not further deteriorated. Initial jobless claims rose to 219,000, exceeding the expected 210,000, indicating further cracks in the job market.

Data from Redfin reveals the war's spillover into the real economy: over the four weeks ended April 5, the number of home signings decreased by 2.4% year-on-year, marking the worst performance in three months. Mortgage rates rebounded from below 6% to 6.4% after the outbreak of war, causing both buyers and sellers to hesitate. Redfin's report contains a noteworthy statement: "If the ceasefire continues, mortgage rates may return to around 6%." The success or failure of the two-week ceasefire is spreading from financial markets to households.

Goldman Sachs' analysis report released after the ceasefire provides a calm assessment: if the strait remains closed for another month, the average price of Brent crude for the year will exceed $100. Goldman’s baseline forecast is that the strait will start to reopen this weekend, and will gradually return to pre-war levels over the course of a month. "The situation is still changing," analyst Daan Struyven wrote, "we believe the price forecast risks are skewed to the upside."

Oil Prices: From $94 to $98, Reality Chases Headlines

Oil prices, which fell 16% on Wednesday, recovered some ground on Thursday.

WTI rose over 3% to $97.87 per barrel, briefly returning to above $100 during the trading session. Brent increased about 1% to $95.92.

The reason for the rebound is simple: the market realized that the sharp drop on Wednesday had priced in an overly optimistic scenario. The Strait of Hormuz is still effectively closed—Iran's Revolutionary Guard continues to demand permits for passing vessels via radio, and Fars News Agency clearly stated that tanker passage is "completely suspended." MarineTraffic data shows that normally 100-135 commercial vessels pass through daily, but now the number is in the single digits. Over 800 cargo ships remain stranded in the Persian Gulf.

A shipowner spoke to CNBC, highlighting the issue: "We do not know how to pass through the strait during the ceasefire. We cannot get in touch with Iranian authorities. The most important thing is the safety of our crew—without absolute safety assurances, we will not pass."

There is a subtle temperature difference between statements from the White House and the Pentagon. Defense Secretary Heegeses claimed that "the strait is open," asserting that U.S. and Israeli forces achieved a "major military victory." However, White House spokesperson Levitt's wording is closer to reality: "The President's expectation and demand is for the strait to be reopened immediately, quickly, and safely, without any restrictions."—If the strait is genuinely open, why is there still a need to "request" it to be opened?

What is more disturbing is the tearing of the ceasefire narrative. Iran's semi-official Tasnim News Agency claims that the U.S. has in principle agreed to "allow Iran to maintain control of the Strait of Hormuz, accept uranium enrichment, lift all sanctions, make reparations, and withdraw U.S. troops." The White House has never confirmed these terms. The Iranian military claims they "forced the U.S. and Israel to accept surrender conditions," while the U.S. Defense Secretary states that "Iran begged for this ceasefire." Both sides have declared victory domestically.

A figure worth tracking: Iran and Oman plan to charge tolls for ships passing through the strait. Previously, this waterway was considered an international passage and never charged fees. The White House has clearly opposed any form of tolls. If this dispute is not resolved in the Islamabad negotiations, the true opening of the strait will be far off.

Negotiations in Islamabad have been confirmed for Saturday: Vance, Special Envoy Witkoff, and Kushner will lead the U.S. delegation. This is the highest-level face-to-face contact between the U.S. and Iran in the 40-day war.

Gold: Consolidating Near $4,800

Gold prices are consolidating near the $4,800 level. In the first two days post-ceasefire, the driving factors for gold have shifted from "geopolitical safe-haven" to "interest rate cut expectations + dollar weakness."

The core PCE data on Thursday (3.0%) did not provide a new direction. 3.0% indicates that inflation is still far from the 2% target, but at least has not accelerated in worsening. The Fed's March minutes showed that policymakers are "increasingly open" to rate hikes, but Vice Chair Jefferson's statements on Tuesday added a layer of complexity—he said that the duration of the energy shock will determine the inflation path, suggesting that if oil prices fall due to the ceasefire, discussions on interest rate hikes may be postponed.

The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries has stabilized around 4.29%. If this level can continuously pull back below 4.30% (previously a key threshold of interest for gold and silver analysts), precious metals will gain new upward momentum.

From a technical perspective, $4,800-$4,850 is a key resistance area. Once broken, the next target is $4,980 (the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the March decline). If this level cannot be held, it may fall back to the support levels of $4,600-$4,480.

Cryptocurrency: BTC Stands Firm Above $71,000, Waiting for Islamabad

Bitcoin has run above $71,000 for the third consecutive day, continuing to digest the risk appetite brought about by the ceasefire.

From an extreme fear level of 8 over 48 days to a three-week high of $72,738, BTC has undertaken a robust recovery this week. However, breaking through the critical resistance area of $72,000-$75,000 requires more catalysts. The $71,500 level has been tested multiple times; last week it acted like an impenetrable wall, but this week it briefly broke before retreating.

The current pricing logic of the cryptocurrency market has shifted from "geo-panic trading" to "macro expectation trading." The correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq has risen again during this rally, indicating that the market is pricing BTC as a high Beta tech asset. If oil prices continue to fall due to the ceasefire, and inflation data improves in the next month or two, the expectation of Fed rate cuts will return to the table—this chain will push Bitcoin to $75,000 or even higher.

Conversely, if the Islamabad negotiations break down, tensions in the strait rise again, or oil prices return above $110, Bitcoin is likely to retest the $65,000 support level.

Strategy continues to increase holdings, with approximately $58 billion in positions. The rebound from the extreme fear index of 8 to around 20 has confirmed the short-term bottom. However, between standing firm at $71,000 and breaking through $75,000, there is still a "faith vacuum zone" needing fundamental validation.

A noteworthy industry update: The SEC has scheduled a roundtable discussion on the CLARITY Act for April 16, which may provide long-awaited clarity on the regulatory framework for digital assets. If the ceasefire and favorable regulations resonate in late April, BTC could challenge the April historical 69% win rate statistic.

Today's Summary: From Panic to Frenzy to Reality Check

On April 10, the second complete trading day after the ceasefire, the market’s rebound continues, but reality is chasing headlines:

U.S. Stocks: The S&P has risen for seven straight days to 6,824.66, setting the longest consecutive rise in six months. The Dow has turned positive for the year to +0.25%. Israel's agreement to negotiate with Lebanon has provided new reasons to go long.

Oil Prices: WTI rebounded 3% to $97.87, the strait is still closed, and over 800 vessels remain stranded. Goldman warns: another month of closure will cause Brent to exceed $100 for the year.

Gold: Gold prices are consolidating at the $4,800 mark. PCE at 3.0% did not provide a new direction, awaiting clear signals from the Fed regarding the inflation path post-ceasefire.

Cryptocurrency: BTC has stabilized above $71,000 for three days. The market has shifted from geo-panic trading to macro expectation trading, with interest rate cut expectations as the core driver for the next phase.

The market has answered the question of whether "the ceasefire is worth celebrating"—the Dow has risen nearly 1,600 points this week.

But the next question is harder to answer: What can Islamabad negotiate?

Three landmines are on the negotiation table on Saturday: Who controls the strait (Iran wants to charge fees, the U.S. wants free navigation), does Israel's strike on Lebanon count as part of the ceasefire (Iran says yes, Israel says no), and what happens with Iran's uranium enrichment and sanctions issues. If any topic breaks down, the 1,600 points the Dow gained this week could evaporate within 48 hours.

Seven straight days of gains represent the market's vote of approval for the ceasefire. But the 800 ships stranded in the Persian Gulf remind us: there is still an entire strait separating voting from delivery.