Author: Deep Tide TechFlow

U.S. Stocks: Behind Four Consecutive Up Days, An Extremely Dangerous Countdown

On Monday, Wall Street returned to work after a three-day long holiday, facing both a super non-farm payroll report and a presidential ultimatum.

Let's start with the positive news. The March non-farm employment data, released during the market closure last Friday, was explosive, with 178,000 new jobs added, three times Wall Street's expectations of 60,000. The unemployment rate fell from 4.4% to 4.3%. The core driver of employment recovery was the healthcare industry (+76,000), as 31,000 nurses returned to work following the end of the Kaiser Permanente strike in February, directly boosting the numbers. Construction added 26,000, transportation and warehousing added 21,000, and manufacturing added 15,000. The federal government continued to cut jobs (-18,000), and the financial sector is also bleeding (-15,000).

More disheartening was the revised data: February's non-farm payroll was significantly revised down from -92,000 to -133,000. This means the collapse in employment in February was much worse than we thought. The average monthly job addition in the first quarter was only 68,000, which, two years ago, would have triggered recession alarms. But the rules of the game have changed by 2026. The latest research from the Dallas Federal Reserve shows that due to a sharp decrease in immigration and a decline in labor force participation, the "break-even employment" needed to maintain a stable unemployment rate is close to zero. In other words, 68,000 may not represent weakness, but rather a "new normal".

The market chose the optimistic side. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 165 points (+0.36%) to close at 46,669.88 points, the S&P 500 increased by 0.44% to 6,611.83 points, and the Nasdaq was up by 0.54% to 21,996.34 points. The S&P recorded four consecutive up days, marking its longest winning streak since January.

Now for the bad news. The ISM services data presented a terrifying combination: the index itself fell to 54 (still above the expansion line), but the prices sub-index skyrocketed to 70.7, a new high since October 2022; the employment sub-index plummeted to 45.2, the lowest since December 2023. In layman's terms: companies are raising prices while laying off workers. This is textbook stagflation signaling.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield jumped to around 4.35% following the non-farm data release. The message from the bond market is clear: stop thinking about interest rate cuts. Morgan Stanley's Caldwell stated directly, "This data gives the Federal Reserve more confidence to stand pat." The market even began to price in a tiny probability of interest rate hikes this year.

On the individual stock side, big tech provided major support. Alphabet and Amazon each rose over 1%, while Micron Technology increased by 3.2%. Boeing led the Dow with a 1.92% rise. However, Tesla continued to face pressure, falling by 2.2%. JPMorgan’s Brinkman maintained his "significantly undervalued" judgment, giving a target price of $145, which means there is still a 60% downside potential from the current price. Brinkman pointed out an absurd fact: Tesla's current stock price is 50% higher than when delivery numbers peaked in June 2022, yet the actual deliveries in the first quarter were over 1 million vehicles less than analysts' expectations at that time.

The Dow's transportation index plummeted by 9% over the last three trading days, marking the largest three-day decline since last April's "liberation day" sell-off. United Airlines fell over 6%, Uber dropped 3.5%, and XPO declined 3.5%, with these oil-sensitive stocks issuing a warning: growth panic is far from over.

What truly left everyone breathless was Trump's statement at a press conference on Monday, reiterating that if Iran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz by 8 PM on Tuesday, the U.S. would destroy Iran's power plants and bridges. "Tuesday will be power plant day and bridge day, combined. Unprecedented!" he wrote on Truth Social.

Meanwhile, multiple diplomatic channels are racing against time. Axios reported that the U.S., Iran, and regional mediators are discussing a possible 45-day ceasefire agreement. Reuters also reported that Iran and the U.S. have received a peace proposal that includes "an immediate ceasefire and reopening of the strait". But at the time of publication, no party had formally accepted it.

Oil Prices: A Night of Terror at 119 Dollars

On Sunday night, the moment the oil futures market reopened, both WTI and Brent skyrocketed to 119 dollars — the highest price since the Russia-Ukraine war began in 2022. Even more rarely, the two benchmark oil prices reached parity at that moment. Normally, WTI is priced at a discount of 3 to 7 dollars to Brent, and this "parity" indicates a distortion in the global oil pricing system under extreme pressure.

Afterward, rumors of a ceasefire pushed oil prices lower. By the time the U.S. stock market closed on Monday, WTI had retreated to around 112 dollars but remained significantly above last Thursday's closing price of 111.54 dollars.

The market now faces a classic binary game: if some type of agreement is reached before 8 PM on Tuesday (even if vague), oil prices could plummet by 20-30 dollars within 48 hours; if Trump actually orders the bombing of Iranian infrastructure, oil prices could surge to 130 or even 150 dollars.

Analysts are cautioning about a neglected risk: even if the war ends tomorrow, the global refining system has already suffered structural damage from six weeks of supply shocks. Restoring normal transportation and refining capacity will take months, not days. "Higher for longer" is no longer just a slogan.

Gold: The Forgotten Safe-Haven King

Gold prices traded in the range of 4,660-4,680 dollars an ounce on Monday, showing little volatility.

This is a location worth pondering. On the critical 24 hours before the war may escalate or potentially end, gold neither spiked (betting on escalation) nor collapsed (betting on peace). It is waiting.

Since reaching a historic high of 5,595 dollars in January, gold has pulled back nearly 17%. Yet structurally, the range of 4,600-4,700 dollars is building a bottom. State Street's monthly gold monitoring report sets the baseline scenario at 4,750-5,500 dollars (50% probability) and the bull case scenario at 5,500-6,250 dollars (35% probability). The range of 4,400-4,600 dollars is seen as "very strong support".

A signal ignored by most: the dollar’s share in global foreign exchange reserves has dropped to the lowest level since 1994 (around 40%), while gold’s share in reserves has risen to the highest since 1991 (around 30%). Central banks are voting with their feet.

Cryptocurrency: Ceasefire Hopes Ignite a Rebound, But Fear Remains at Freezing Point

On Monday, the crypto market saw the most powerful rebound in weeks.

According to CoinDesk data, Bitcoin rose about 3.5% to around 69,700 dollars, briefly surpassing the 69,200 dollar mark during the trading session. Ethereum increased by 4.8% to 2,149 dollars. The total global cryptocurrency market cap rebounded to 2.45 trillion dollars.

The direct catalyst for the rebound was the ceasefire rumors. The 45-day ceasefire + reopening of the strait proposal gave risk assets a glimmer of hope. However, on-chain data indicates this rebound is more about short covering rather than new long positions: open interest has declined by 8% during the rebound, funding rates remain negative (-0.003%), and perpetual contract annualized premiums have compressed to 0.12%, the lowest since March 2024. Trading volume is 18% lower than the 30-day average.

Simply put: prices have risen, but conviction has not.

Notable actions to pay attention to: Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) disclosed that it purchased approximately 330 million dollars' worth of Bitcoin from April 1 to 5, further consolidating its position as the largest corporate holder of BTC globally. Strategy's stock price rose by 4.7% on Monday, while Bitcoin increased by 3.7%. The company now holds about 58 billion dollars in Bitcoin, but BTC has fallen by approximately 20% this year.

The Fear and Greed Index rose from 8 last week to 13 — still in the "extreme fear" range, and has remained below 25 for the seventh consecutive week. The comforting historical data still holds: since 2018, every time the index has dropped below 15, the median Bitcoin increase after 90 days is 38.4%. But the premise is — this time the bottom is not a false bottom.

Bitcoin faces technical resistance at 71,500 dollars, having failed multiple times to break through. If a ceasefire is confirmed and oil prices plummet, this wall may be breached in one go. If bombs rather than peace resonate on Tuesday, the support at 65,000 dollars will again be put to the test.

Today's Summary: 48 Hours to Determine Life and Death

On April 7, the Iran-U.S. war enters the final countdown of the sixth week, with all assets at the same betting table:

U.S. Stocks: The S&P saw four consecutive up days, rising 0.44% to 6,611.83 points. Non-farm payroll exceeded expectations significantly with 178,000, but ISM services prices soared + employment plummeted = "stagflation".

Oil Prices: WTI hit 119 dollars in the Sunday night session before retreating to 112 dollars. Trump's "power plant day" ultimatum coexists with ceasefire rumors.

Gold: Gold prices await judgment in the 4,660-4,680 dollars range, with sustained central bank purchases providing structural support.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin rebounded to 69,700 dollars, driven by hopes of a ceasefire prompting short covering. Strategy bought another 330 million dollars in BTC. The fear index is at 13, still cold.

The market is currently only concerned with one question: before 8 PM on Tuesday, will there be a ceasefire agreement or a bombing order?

If a 45-day ceasefire proposal is reached, oil prices could drop back to the 80-90 dollar range within days, the stock market could see a strong rebound, and Bitcoin may surge to 75,000 dollars. If Trump fulfills the threat of "power plant day," oil prices will march toward 130 dollars, the S&P might retest this year's lows, and the crypto market will likely be submerged in panic again.

After 48 hours, we will know the answer.