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95-year-old Buffett said 7 things: it is not time to buy the dip yet, nuclear weapons will eventually be used.

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深潮TechFlow
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3 hours ago
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A person who hands over power is still more interested in the future than in the past.

Author: Curry, Deep Tide TechFlow

Yesterday, Buffett accepted an exclusive interview with American CNBC.

This was his first long conversation since stepping down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway on January 1 this year. At 95 years old, having steered the ship for sixty years, he could have opted not to engage anymore.

But he talked about Apple, the Federal Reserve, Bill Gates and Epstein, the Iranian nuclear weapons, and announced that his charity lunch will resume after a four-year hiatus.

There's a lot of information; let's address them one by one.

image

1. Went to work on the first day of retirement

Buffett said he still goes to the office every day.

Every day before the market opens, he calls Berkshire's financial asset director Mark Millard to discuss market dynamics and trading. Millard's office is about six meters away from him, and after the call, he executes the trades. When asked if there have been any new operations recently, Buffett said yes, he made a tiny trade but did not reveal what he bought.

He also drew a line: he will not make any investments that Abel does not agree to, and Abel receives a daily summary of investment dynamics.

This arrangement sounds like “the final decision-making power is in the hands of the new CEO,” but understood differently, it also means the 95-year-old former head is present every day, participating and trading, while the successor works six meters away from him.

Buffett praised Abel in the interview, saying that Abel does more work in a day than he did in a week during his prime, expressing he would prefer to have Abel manage his money rather than any top investment advisor in America.

Nominally, he has retired. But this "retirement" feels more like a transition from CEO to a person sitting beside.

2. Sold Apple too early, but not buying now

In this interview, Buffett admitted one thing: Berkshire reduced its Apple holdings too early.

The original quote was: "I sold it too soon. But, I bought it even sooner, so."

Translated, it means sold too early but bought even earlier, so profit remains. According to him, Berkshire's pre-tax profit from this investment in Apple exceeds 100 billion dollars.

The timeline goes like this: Berkshire began buying Apple around 2016, with the position rising to over 170 billion dollars at its peak, the largest single position in Berkshire's history.

Between 2023 and 2024, Berkshire cut its Apple position by about two-thirds. As of the end of last year, according to SEC filings, Berkshire held about 22.79 million shares of Apple, valued at around 62 billion dollars, still comprising 22.6% of its entire portfolio, maintaining its position as the largest holding.

Buffett said that Apple is better than any company that Berkshire fully owns.

Berkshire’s railroad company BNSF has a market value higher than its Apple holdings, yet Apple still ranks first in the holdings list. He also praised Apple CEO Cook as a "fantastic manager," saying Cook somehow manages to get along with everyone in the world.

When asked whether he would increase his holdings again, Buffett gave a conditional answer: it's not impossible, if Apple's price drops to a certain level, Berkshire would buy heavily. But not now, "not in this market."

Apple has already fallen over 14% from this year’s high, but in Buffett’s eyes, it hasn't reached a price he is willing to act on.

3. Dropped 50% three times, what’s this drop?

The US stock market hasn’t looked good this year. As of the day of the interview, the Dow Jones is down about 5% for the year, the S&P 500 is down about 6%, and the Nasdaq is down about 9%. Apple itself has also retreated over 14% from its yearly high.

Buffett's reaction to this is: there’s nothing to get excited about.

He said since he took over Berkshire, the company’s stock price has dropped more than 50% at least three times. Compared to those drops, this one doesn’t matter at all.

He also did not show any intention of making large moves. For him, the current market is far from those historical moments that "created great opportunities."

In just a few words, he was saying don’t panic, and that you shouldn't expect me to bottom-fish right now.

4. The inflation target should be zero

When asked whether the Federal Reserve is currently more worried about inflation or employment, Buffett did not take a direct side but made a broader statement: he hopes the Federal Reserve's inflation target is zero.

His logic is that once you say you can tolerate 2% inflation, this number compounded over the long term is very astonishing. And for common people, if you earn 2% interest on your savings and have to pay taxes on that 2%, it means that your purchasing power is actually regressing.

Buffett also said that rather than employment data, he is more concerned about the dollar's status as the global reserve currency and the stability of the banking system.

He praised Federal Reserve Chairman Powell for his decisive actions in March 2020 when the pandemic broke out, saying that if it had been delayed two to three weeks, it would have been a disaster, "once the dominoes start to fall, they fall faster than anyone thinks." In Buffett's mind, Powell and Paul Volcker from the 1980s, who fought inflation through aggressive interest rate hikes, are the two most respected figures in Federal Reserve history.

However, he did not lack criticism of the Federal Reserve either. The 2% inflation target, in his opinion, is a mistake; it essentially tells everyone that saving money is not as good as spending it.

5. Charity lunch is back

What made Buffett change his mind was the passing of one person.

Cecil Williams, founder of the Glide Foundation, passed away in 2024. Glide is a charity in San Francisco that helps the homeless, and Buffett's late wife, Susan, had long volunteered there. Starting in 2000, Buffett auctioned off the opportunity to have lunch with himself once a year, with all proceeds donated to Glide. This lunch has been held for 22 years, but after the last one in 2022, Buffett said it would not be held again.

image

Image: The person in the middle is Cecil Williams

But Cecil’s passing made him change his mind. Buffett said when Cecil left, he believed that Glide should not cease to exist.

This new lunch has changed in form.

Buffett will no longer attend alone; he is joined by NBA four-time champion Curry and his wife Ayesha Curry. The auction starts on May 7 on eBay, with a starting bid of 50,000 dollars. The winning bidder can bring up to seven guests to have lunch with the three on June 24 in Omaha. Half of the auction proceeds will be donated to Glide, and half to the Eat. Learn. Play. foundation founded by the Currys, an organization helping youth in Oakland.

The last auction related to the crypto circle was in 2019, where Tron founder Justin Sun spent 4.57 million dollars. Since then, Buffett has donated the Bitcoin that Sun gifted him.

6. No longer in contact with Gates

This is the first time Buffett has publicly talked about Bill Gates since stepping down.

He said that ever since documents related to Epstein were made public, he hasn’t spoken to Gates. The original quote was: "I don't want to be in a position where I know things ... to be called as a witness." He doesn’t want to know too much and does not want to be summoned to testify.

Buffett and Gates' relationship has lasted for decades. They jointly initiated "The Giving Pledge" in 2010, urging the wealthiest people in the world to commit to donating most of their wealth to charity. Since 2006, Buffett has donated over 43 billion dollars to the Gates Foundation.

Gates’ interaction with Epstein started in 2011, three years later than Epstein's guilty plea in Florida for sexual crimes in 2008. Since the end of last year, the US Department of Justice and Congress have gradually released a large number of related documents, revealing emails and photos between Gates and Epstein.

According to earlier reports from The Wall Street Journal, Gates apologized to Gates Foundation employees in February this year, admitting to having an association with Epstein, and acknowledged an extramarital affair. Gates has accepted an invitation to testify before the US House Oversight Committee regarding this matter, but the date is yet to be determined.

When asked if he is still good friends with Gates, Buffett’s tone was very restrained. He mentioned the past of jointly founding The Giving Pledge but immediately said:

“I think there's no need to say too much until things are clarified.”

7. Nuclear weapons will eventually be used

At the end of the interview, they talked about Iran.

Buffett said that there are currently nine countries with nuclear weapons in the world. During the Cold War, there were only two, the US and the Soviet Union, and everyone was already extremely tense. But at that time, the decision-makers on both sides could at least be considered rational. Now, the situation is completely different.

He particularly mentioned Iran and North Korea. He said the most dangerous situation is when the person holding the nuclear button is either about to die or facing extreme humiliation. In such a situation, no one can predict what decision that person will make.

When asked how he would advise handling Iran's uranium enrichment issue if he were an advisor to the US president, Buffett did not give specific advice, but said something that sounded like a deterministic statement: within the next hundred years, perhaps two hundred years, nuclear weapons will be used. He does not know how it will happen specifically, but he believes it's a matter of probability—the more countries possess nuclear weapons, the higher the probability.

Regarding whether Iran should possess nuclear weapons, he simply said: if Iran has a nuclear bomb, things will be harder to deal with than if it doesn’t.

A 95-year-old who has witnessed the end of World War II, the entire Cold War, the Cuban Missile Crisis, and the dissolution of the Soviet Union... The judgments he left at the end of the interview are thought-provoking.

This interview lasted about an hour, covering everything that could be discussed.

However, one detail that caught my attention throughout the process is: Buffett is 95 years old, has stepped down for three months, and before the camera, not a single word was about "reflecting" or "summarizing a lifetime."

All the words were looking forward.

Whether to buy more Apple, how to set the Federal Reserve's targets, how the situation in Iran will develop, how to manage the new charity lunch... The host sitting opposite him, Becky Quick, gave him many opportunities to reflect, but he didn’t take any.

You rarely see someone who has handed over power still more interested in the future than in the past.

The sage of stocks may still be the sage of stocks. Only now, instead of voting with money, he votes with judgment.

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