After kicking off March with a bullish surge, bitcoin now appears destined for a round trip back to its opening levels. The top cryptocurrency tumbled below the $66,000 psychological floor Friday, hitting a multi-week low of $65,505. This price action suggests the “war hedge” resilience that characterized the early days of the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict has finally buckled under the weight of prolonged uncertainty.

The sell-off was not isolated to bitcoin. Bitcoin’s 4.5% intraday slide—which wiped nearly $10 billion off its market capitalization—acted as a lead weight for the broader digital economy, dragging total crypto capitalization down to $2.36 trillion. While the massive $14 billion options expiry on Deribit provided initial downward momentum, the primary driver remains a tight correlation with bleeding U.S. equities.

While Asian and European markets remained largely sideways, Wall Street saw a sea of red. The Nasdaq was down by more than 400 points, or nearly 2%, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones slid 1.52% and 1.62%, respectively.

Trader sentiment is souring as the Trump administration repeatedly extends the deadline for strikes in Iran. With the Strait of Hormuz remaining a maritime no-go zone, the specter of a global recession looms larger each day. The diplomatic stalemate between Washington and Tehran suggests a resolution may require a massive military escalation—specifically, the potential seizure of Kharg Island.

Such a maneuver would represent a significant black swan risk for global markets. Given the administration’s history of executing bold military directives over the weekend when traditional exchanges are dark, bitcoin traders are bracing for a volatile 48 hours.

Meanwhile, bitcoin’s retreat from the March 17 peak of $76,013 represents a 14% drawdown, though the asset may still close the month with a modest loss of under 5%. The long-term view for 2026 remains sobering: Since its Jan. 1 opening at $90,000, bitcoin has shed more than 25% of its value. As the first quarter draws to a close, the “digital gold” narrative is being tested, with BTC currently ranking as one of the year’s worst-performing risk assets.

• Why did bitcoin drop below $66K? Geopolitical tensions and U.S. equity sell-offs drove the decline.
• How much value was lost in crypto markets? Nearly $10B in bitcoin and $14B in total options expiry pressure.
• What role did global markets play? Asian and European trading stayed flat while Wall Street plunged.
• Is bitcoin still a safe hedge? Its “digital gold” narrative is weakening amid recession fears.

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