US Stocks: The Nasdaq officially fell into a correction zone, and the most undesirable event for Wall Street has happened

On Thursday, the warmth from Wall Street's two consecutive days of gains completely dissipated.

The Dow fell 469 points (-1.01%), the S&P 500 plunged 1.74%, marking the largest single-day drop in two months. The Nasdaq plummeted 2.38%, officially falling into a correction zone—down over 10% from its historical high at the end of October last year. In summary, this day was characterized by a triple kill of stocks, gold, and bonds, with no asset providing effective safe-haven protection.

The first bullet that fell came from across the Atlantic. European Central Bank President Lagarde splashed cold water on the market in a public speech: she characterized the Iran conflict as a "real shock" and stated that "the market might be too optimistic," warning that inflation could force Europe to reconsider interest rate hikes, and that economic damage might take years to repair. Lagarde's remarks took down another pillar of the already precarious rate cut expectations.

Following closely was a heavy blow from the OECD. In its latest economic update, the organization significantly raised its inflation forecast for the US in 2026 from a previous 2.8% to 4.2%, far higher than the Fed's own forecast of 2.7% last week. What does this number mean? It means that due to the ongoing shocks of this war, the Fed's even "holding steady" has become a luxury—market pricing is gradually incorporating the likelihood of interest rate hikes.

On the diplomatic front, the Iranian foreign minister's statement completely shattered the remaining optimistic narrative of the week: Iranian Foreign Minister Abdollahian clearly stated that the transmission of messages through intermediaries "does not mean negotiations with the US," and Tehran is reviewing the US ceasefire proposal but refuses direct contact. The Asia-Pacific markets reacted first: the KOSPI plummeted over 3%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 1.9%, and the CSI 300 dropped over 1%.

On the individual stock level, the technology sector bore the brunt. Nvidia dropped 3.7%, Alphabet fell 3.5%, and nearly all heavyweight members of the Nasdaq 100 experienced losses. Nvidia has been under dual pressure from geopolitical issues and AI regulation for several weeks, showing no signs of respite in its downturn.

Within the Dow, only a few defensive and energy stocks, such as Salesforce (+1.65%) and Chevron (+1.44%), managed to stay in positive territory, but the entire index struggled to escape the drag, with only 9 of the 30 constituents closing higher.

A noteworthy detail: Trump stated during that day's cabinet meeting that the war's impact on oil prices and the stock market "is not as great as I had anticipated," asserting that "everything will drop back, even lower than before the war." The market's reaction to this statement was a continued decline.

Gold and Oil Prices: Oil prices return, gold posts the worst monthly decline since 1983

Oil prices: Back above $100, expectations of a negotiation breakdown reignited

Brent crude returned to over $107/barrel intraday, while WTI hovered around $93. Both benchmark prices rebounded significantly from Wednesday's lows, returning to a painfully high range for the market.

The driving force remains the familiar logic: the Iranian foreign minister's hardline statement cast a shadow over the prospects for peace talks, causing the market to start pricing in a "long-term blockade." The navigability of the Strait of Hormuz remains imperfect—freight rates, insurance costs, and the feasibility of shipping routes are becoming the first barriers to crude oil price discovery, rather than just the supply volume figures.

Gold: A brutal month under triple pressure

Gold futures fell 4% on Thursday, with the monthly decline since March nearing 17%, marking the worst single-month performance since October 2008.

This is a phenomenon that requires serious explanation. In the face of a tangible war in the Middle East, why is gold not rising but rather falling? The answer points to three interlinked logic chains: first, the continuous rise in US Treasury yields has increased the opportunity cost of holding gold; second, the dollar has strengthened under the transmission chain of "inflation → tightening expectations → strong dollar," while gold is priced in dollars; third, inflation expectations driven by oil prices have reinforced the judgment that "central banks will not cut rates, and liquidity will not loosen," causing gold to lose the support of the monetary easing narrative.

The failure of gold to rise during wartime is one of the most counterintuitive and alarming market signals of this oil price shock in 2026.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin falls below $70,000

Bitcoin fell below $70,000 on Thursday, trading at around $68,837, a drop of about 3.4%. Ethereum also declined, nearing the critical support zone of $2,000 to $2,100.

The timing of this drop below $70,000 is particularly sensitive—just less than a week after Bernstein boldly called "the bottom has been reached." Currently, Bitcoin's drop from last October's high of about $126,000 has expanded to around 45%, and market confidence in a "bottom rebound" is undergoing another test.

One interesting structural observation: since the outbreak of the war, Bitcoin's reaction to geopolitical threats has shown a shrinking amplitude—triggering a 9% drop from the first strike on February 28, a 4% drop due to the blockade in Hormuz, and subsequent escalations yielding under 2% volatility. This round of dropping below $70,000 was driven by macro factors (ECB hawkishness + OECD inflation upgrade), rather than being directly triggered by the war itself—this somewhat indicates that Bitcoin's "crisis resilience" is accumulating, but the lethality of the interest rate narrative should not be underestimated.

A turning point occurred after hours: Trump posted on Truth Social, announcing that the deadline for striking Iranian energy infrastructure was being extended from the originally scheduled Friday to April 6, stating that "negotiations are underway and progressing well." Following this news, Dow futures immediately jumped about 205 points (+0.4%), and S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures both rose about 0.4%. Bitcoin also experienced a slight rebound from its lows.

This marks yet another instance of Trump’s "after-hours market rescue" in this war—markets have become adept enough to recognize that this does not equate to the end of the war; it simply buys more time.

Today's Summary: Under the triple kill pattern, Lagarde and the OECD jointly issued a global inflation alert

On March 26 (Thursday), external shocks compounded with technical breakdowns, leading to the toughest day for US stocks since the war began:

US Stocks: Dow -469 points (-1.01%), S&P 500 -1.74% (largest single-day drop in two months), Nasdaq -2.38% officially fell into a correction zone. ECB President Lagarde warned the market of being "too optimistic," and the OECD raised the US inflation forecast to 4.2%, both catalyzing a faster decline.

Oil prices/Gold: Brent returned to $107/barrel, WTI around $93, oil prices made a comeback; gold fell 4%, with the monthly cumulative decline nearly 17%, marking the worst single-month performance since 2008—gold’s failure to serve as a safe haven during war is the most abnormal signal in the current market.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin fell below $70,000, trading at around $68,837 (-3.4%), with Ethereum also under pressure; after hours, Trump extended the strike deadline to April 6, leading to a slight rebound in futures, with Bitcoin also following suit from its low.

The market now only cares about one question: Can Tehran provide a response before April 6?

Trump has given Iran another window period. But this time, the market's patience is much thinner than it was three weeks ago—each "extension" is depleting the market's expectations for a "real ceasefire." April 6 is a new hard deadline. If by then there is still no substantial response from Iran, Trump will face the dilemma of "another extension could collapse credibility" or "real action leading to uncontrollable inflation."

The most expensive cost of this war may not be the oil price, but rather that the market has completely lost trust in the "next turn of events."