Author: David, Deep Tide TechFlow

How much can a post really be worth?

At 7:05 AM Eastern Time on March 23, Trump posted an all-uppercase message on Truth Social, stating that the U.S. and Iran had "very good, productive conversations" over the past two days, and he had ordered a five-day suspension of strikes on Iranian power plants and energy facilities.

This post was made before the U.S. stock market opened. But the futures market is real-time.

Within minutes, Dow futures rose by more than 1,000 points, and S&P 500 futures increased by 2.7%. Brent crude oil plummeted from $113 per barrel to $98, a drop of over 13%.

A reporter from the well-known foreign media outlet Fortune magazine later calculated that from the time the post was made until the market digested it, the total market value of U.S. stocks increased by about $1.7 trillion.

If you are an ordinary trader and post a message about oil supply on social media that leads to a 13% drop in global oil prices, regulatory authorities would surely come knocking within 24 hours.

But if you are the President of the United States, this is called diplomacy.

Then Iran said: We never talked to him.

The Iranian state news agency quoted a security official stating that there were no direct or indirect conversations between Tehran and Washington. Iranian scholar Seyed Mohammad Marandi wrote more directly on X:

"Every week when the market opens, Trump makes such statements to lower oil prices. This time the five-day deadline just happens to coincide with the close of the energy market trading week."

News returned to the U.S., and the market's gains retreated by nearly half. But by the close, the Dow was still up 631 points, and Brent crude settled at $99.94, the first time it dropped below $100 since March 11. In other words, the market chose to believe Trump's version, at least halfway.

A post, an hour, and trillions of dollars swung back and forth.

This is less about the president making a diplomatic statement and more about the world’s largest oil trader placing an order.

Moreover, the tools at his disposal are not futures contracts but the U.S. military and Truth Social social media. Other traders work with money for their long and short positions; he operates with the switch of war.

According to CNBC, about 15 minutes before the post was made, around 6:50 AM New York time, both S&P 500 futures and oil futures saw an unusual spike in trading volume.

In the pre-market period with very thin liquidity, such sudden and isolated volume spikes are very conspicuous.

Fifteen minutes later, the post was made, oil prices plummeted, and indices soared. In other words, anyone who acted at 6:50 AM earned money after 7:05 AM. In the commodities market, accurately positioning ahead of significant news is one of the most classic forms of insider trading.

Source: CNBC, S&P 500 Pre-Market Trading Volume Spike

In April last year, when Trump’s tariff policies caused extreme market volatility, Senator Adam Schiff publicly questioned: Who knew what the president was going to say before he posted? No one provided an answer that time.

This time, CNBC contacted the SEC and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, and both institutions gave the same response: they declined to comment.

And this is not the first time. Looking back, Trump's ability to manipulate oil prices with his words has been going on for nearly a decade.

Verbal Business

Trump started talking about oil prices on social media in 2011, back when he was not yet president, regularly criticizing OPEC for manipulating the market. But criticizing is one thing; a real estate tycoon complaining on Twitter is a very different matter from manipulating oil prices.

What really transitioned him from a "commentator" to a "trader" was a deal in 2020.

In early 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic broke out, the global economy came to a standstill, and oil demand plummeted. To make matters worse, Saudi Arabia and Russia started a price war, increasing production to seize market share, causing oil prices to drop to just over $20 per barrel. U.S. shale oil companies faced mass bankruptcies, and the entire industry was in distress.

According to normal logic, low oil prices are advantageous for consumers—fuel becomes cheaper. A president who cares about voter interests should welcome this.

But Trump did the opposite.

He invited a room full of oil company CEOs to the White House for a meeting. He then personally called Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Russian President Putin, persuading them to significantly reduce production along with OPEC. The only purpose was:

To push oil prices back up.

He then tweeted, suggesting that a production cut agreement was imminent, causing WTI crude oil to surge 25% that day, marking the largest single-day increase in history.

Why save oil prices? Because the bosses of those nearly bankrupt shale oil companies were his largest political donors.

According to public reports, oil tycoon Harold Hamm lost $3 billion in personal assets within days during the oil price crash and subsequently lobbied Trump to intervene. NBC's headline at the time was quite direct: "Trump originally wanted to lower oil prices but is now negotiating with oil executives on how to raise them."

The essence of this deal was: global consumers would pay more for higher oil prices, benefiting his political donors while he personally reaped the rewards in campaign funds for the next round.

If this matter ended there, it could still be categorized as "political interest exchange." But Trump did something that no politician would do—he publicly acknowledged it.

At subsequent campaign rallies, he repeatedly told supporters in the audience:

"We lowered the oil prices too much and had to save the oil companies. I called OPEC, I also called Russia and Saudi Arabia, and told them the prices had to come up."

Thunderous applause followed.

Source: Visual Capitalist

In 2023, the academic journal Energy Policy published a paper that reviewed all social media statements related to oil made by Trump from when he announced his candidacy in 2015 until his account was banned in 2021.

The conclusion was: his tweets indeed had a measurable impact on WTI crude oil futures prices and significantly amplified speculative behavior in the market.

In other words, academia confirmed with data what all traders already knew: this person’s words could move global oil prices. And the story from 2020 proves that he not only can but wants to, and his motivation is not national interest but his own network of interests.

From his first term to now, Trump's tools for oil trading have evolved. Twitter became Truth Social, criticizing OPEC turned into pausing bombing Iran...

But the logic has never changed: using the unique information advantage and policy power of the president to create price fluctuations in the world’s largest commodity market.

From Words to Action

In the past ten years, Trump has been earning "influence" money in the oil market.

He opens his mouth, others gain or lose, and what he personally gains is political capital. But in 2026, the nature of this business began to change.

In early March this year, The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg reported on the same news: Trump's two sons, Donald Jr. and Eric Trump, were investing in a military drone company called Powerus.

Donald Jr. is also a shareholder and advisory board member of a drone parts company called Unusual Machines, holding about 330,000 shares worth around $4 million.

He joined the company in November 2024, just weeks after his father won the election. Prior to that, he had no experience in the drone or military industry.

Unusual Machines subsequently secured a contract with the U.S. Army to produce 3,500 drone motors, and the military indicated that it would add another 20,000 components by 2026.

Donald Jr. is also a partner at the venture capital firm 1789 Capital. According to the Financial Times, in 2025 alone, at least four portfolio companies of this venture capital firm received defense contracts from the Trump administration, totaling more than $735 million.

Forbes estimates that Donald Jr.'s personal net worth was about $50 million before he took office in January 2025, which multiplied sixfold by the end of the year.

Then, his father initiated war against Iran on February 28, 2026.

Drones are the signature weapon of this war. According to The New York Times, both the U.S. and Iran are using drones on a large scale, with each drone costing only a fraction of traditional missiles. The Pentagon is advancing an $11 billion procurement plan, aiming to deploy over 200,000 American-made attack drones by 2027.

Days after the war began, his son Eric Trump posted on X: "Drones are the future."

The conflict of interest is obvious. A president's son entering the military industry after his father took office, with the company he invested in receiving contracts from his father's administration while his father is waging a war that heavily utilizes these companies' products.

The Trump family's business has expanded beyond oil to war itself. Oil is the money he earned with his words, while drones are the money his son earns with his hands.

Today is the first day of the suspension of strikes. In five days, either negotiations will bear results, the Strait of Hormuz will reopen, and oil prices will continue to fall; or no agreement will be made, Iran will continue to block the strait, and everything will return to the status quo.

The world's largest oil trader has issued an option to the market with a five-day deadline. The strike price is war or peace; no one knows.

But one thing is certain: if oil prices rise, his son's drone company takes more orders; if oil prices fall, he wins again on Truth Social.

No matter the outcome, he will not lose money.