Daily market key data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.
Macroeconomic Market
The global central bank's "hawkish hold" has shattered the bulls' defense line. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that interest rate cuts this year are unlikely unless there is progress on inflation. The high interest rate environment combined with inflation concerns has led to a collective flash crash in precious metals and industrial metals. Gold plummeted 6% yesterday, dropping to near the $4500 mark, hitting a six-week low, while Silver flashed a 12% crash during trading and eventually closed down 3.3%. LME Aluminum also recorded its largest single-day drop since 2018 (nearly 8%). Peter Boockvar from One Point BFG pointed out that inflation risk is diminishing rate cut expectations, and rising global interest rates are mercilessly dragging down precious metals. Although Yardeni Research believes a 70s-style stagflation is unlikely to reoccur, Goldman Sachs' Christian Mueller-Glissmann firmly believes that if stagflation does arrive, gold will still be a core asset choice.
It is noteworthy that Wall Street will face options expiration with a nominal value of up to $5.7 trillion on Friday, setting a record for Citi since records began in 1996 for March settlements. This expiration includes $4.1 trillion in index contracts, $772 billion in ETF options, and $875 billion in individual stock options.
Crude Oil Market
As of March 20, the military conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran has entered its 21st day, resulting in over 4,100 deaths. In response to soaring oil prices, Trump demanded Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stop attacks on energy infrastructure and announced a waiver of Russian oil sanctions until April 2026, promising to "take all necessary measures to maintain stable oil prices."
Recently, Israel launched a military strike on Iran's South Pars gas field, prompting a rapid counterattack from Iran, with the conflict spreading to energy facilities in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and other Middle Eastern countries. The Middle Eastern energy supply chain has suffered a devastating blow, with European natural gas futures soaring up to 35%, while Qatar Energy's CEO helplessly revealed that 17% of the country’s LNG production capacity has been damaged, leading to annual losses of up to $20 billion, with repairs needing 3 to 5 years. After drone attacks, fires broke out at Saudi Arabia's Yanbu refinery and two refineries in Kuwait.
The Iranian Foreign Minister warned that if energy facilities are attacked again, Iran will no longer restrain itself and will promote plans to impose taxes on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Currently, shipping security issues in the Strait of Hormuz have attracted the attention of multiple countries. A joint statement was issued by the UK, France, Germany, and five other countries, promising to work to stabilize the energy market, although no concrete actions have been outlined.
The price of Brent crude oil surged 10% to $119 per barrel on Thursday before sharply retreating; WTI crude oil also briefly exceeded $100 but then fell over 8% from its intraday high; while Dubai oil price reached a historic high of $177. Barclays believes that as long as WTI is controlled around $95, the impact on U.S. stocks will remain relatively manageable. Wood Mackenzie warned that oil prices reaching $200 per barrel by 2026 is not impossible; CIBC's Rebecca Babin bluntly stated that if the war drags into June, oil prices could reach $180.
Bitcoin Market
Bitcoin encountered strong resistance after reaching a local high of $76,000; dragged down by a decline in U.S. stocks and the Fed's hawkish decisions, the price has dropped to below $69,000, currently hovering around $70,500. Today, there are BTC options with a nominal value of $1.6 billion and ETH options with a nominal value of $370 million expiring, among which the maximum pain point for BTC is $70,000 and the maximum pain point for ETH is $2,150. Analyst Adam from Greeks.live indicated that the current implied volatility for major BTC contracts is 50% and for ETH is 70%, while the decline in actual volatility has led to an ongoing rise in volatility risk premium, with market sentiment leaning toward conservatism. Unless an unexpected event occurs, Bitcoin may enter a low-volatility trading period.
Bearish Views
Core Logic: Macroeconomic pressure and the breaking of technical structures resonate, facing significant resistance above, and the market is likely to enter a prolonged period of oscillation downward or deep correction.
Murphy: The BRS indicator dropped to 10 and did not touch the zero axis, indicating that the rebound is nearing its end, with difficulty breaking the $76,000 high. Currently holding a short position at $74,400; if support breaks, looking towards $65,000 to $67,000.
Killa: Currently lacks structural confirmation to impact $80,000; if unable to recover the weekly open price of $72,800, the price will continue to probe down to $68,000 or even $65,000.
CJ: This round of rally failed to break the previous high range, planning to go short when the price retests resistance. Only a strong breakthrough of $74,000 would support looking toward $80,000.
Rekt Capital: Bitcoin is currently backtesting the 200-week EMA support at $68,300; if the weekly close falls below this level, this support will be invalidated, opening up further downside.
Roman: The current oscillation range may last for months, and a deep correction towards $50,000 cannot be ruled out.
Bullish Views
Core Logic: The liquidity clearing at the key support level has been completed; historical fractals and institutional spot buying suggest that the current pullback is the perfect launchpad for a new parabolic rally.
CrypNuevo: This is a great intraday trading setup; the price dropping to $69,000 precisely cleared the liquidity at the lows, and the oversold correction has completed the rebalance.
Skew: Significant signs of selling pressure absorption have been observed around $69,000, and spot buying is supporting a price stabilization recovery.
AlphaBTC: Confident that driven by a rebound in traditional financial markets, Bitcoin will reach $80,000 first, rather than dropping to $50,000.
Glassnode: Bitcoin's supply profitability ratio has risen to 60%; if it absorbs the current selling pressure and holds above $70,000, it is likely to launch an assault towards the $78,000 to $82,000 range.
Key Data (as of March 20, 13:00 HKT)
(Data source: CoinAnk, Upbit, SoSoValue, CryptoBubbles)
Bitcoin ETF: -$90.1896 million
Ethereum ETF: -$131 million
Fear and Greed Index: 11 (Extreme Fear)
Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: XRP, BTC, POLYX, ETH, BTT
Sector Performance: The crypto market has declined for three consecutive days, with only the AI and GameFi sectors remaining relatively strong.
24-hour liquidation data: A total of 85,325 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $246 million, including $80.6 million liquidated for BTC, $50.96 million for ETH, and $7.19 million for SOL.
Today's Outlook
Binance removes BONK/BRL and ME/FDUSD trading pairs and halts trading
ZRO will unlock approximately 25.72 million tokens on March 20, valued at approximately $43.7 million
KAITO (KAITO) will unlock approximately 18 million tokens on March 20, valued at approximately $6.3 million
River (RIVER) will unlock approximately 1.1 million tokens on March 22, valued at approximately $26.7 million
SPACE ID (ID) will unlock approximately 73 million tokens on March 22, valued at approximately $3 million
U.S. stocks' "Quadruple Witching Day": Index futures options, individual stock options futures expiration (March 20)
Today's top gainers in the top 100 cryptocurrencies: Bittensor up 18.1%, Kite up 17.1%, Pi Network up 6.7%, ASI Alliance up 6.6%, Quant up 4.8%.
Hot News
Jupiter has launched pre-IPO stock token trading functionality
Crypto exchange Gemini has cut about 30% of its workforce since the beginning of the year
The Bank of England has decided to maintain the interest rate at 3.75% as scheduled
The Federal Reserve still maintains the expectation of one rate cut in 2026
FTX will redistribute $2.2 billion to creditors starting March 31
The Federal Reserve announced to keep the interest rate unchanged, in line with market expectations
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