Author: 137Labs

1. The Shift in National Structure Behind the Transfer of Power

Iranian politics entered a highly sensitive phase around 2026. The transfer of supreme power not only altered the composition of the leadership but also concentrated the long-accumulated institutional changes. Mojtaba Khamenei entering the core of supreme power is seen by many observers as a symbolic watershed in the gradually tightening Iranian political structure.

The Iranian state system is still legally based on religious authority. According to the constitutional design, the Experts Assembly is responsible for selecting the Supreme Leader and overseeing functions. However, the operation of the system does not entirely rely on these formal procedures. Religious legitimacy, military attitudes, the stability of elite coalitions, and national security situations often jointly determine the final direction of power. Especially in the context of wars and regional conflicts, maintaining regime continuity is typically prioritized over procedural discussions.

This political reality has made the Iranian power structure gradually present a composite form. Religious institutions still provide the institutional framework and ideological language, but the role of security agencies in national governance continues to expand. The military system not only undertakes defensive tasks but also plays a key role in political stability and policy implementation. The power model formed thus gradually shifts from traditional theocratic politics to a more securitized state structure.

Mojtaba has long been at the center of this structure. His political influence did not emerge suddenly but accumulated gradually over years of power operations. His connections with the Supreme Leader’s office, relationships with conservative networks, and maintaining stable relations among key institutions have granted him sustained influence within the system.

This background indicates that the issue of power succession in Iran often relates not only to individual abilities or religious status but is closely tied to the stability of the national structure. The Supreme Leader serves as both a religious symbol and a coordinator of the state machinery. The transfer of power therefore reflects changes in the institutional core rather than merely a change in leadership.

2. The Institutional Status and Political Influence of the Revolutionary Guard

The status of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in the Iranian political system has undergone profound changes. The initial purpose of establishing this organization was to maintain revolutionary achievements and national security. However, over time, its role has gradually expanded into broader political and economic fields.

On the security side, the IRGC is responsible for crucial tasks such as intelligence, counter-espionage, and strategic defense. Its military capability is not only used to defend the country but also plays an important role in regional affairs. At the same time, the organization participates in domestic political stability work, possessing strong organizational mobilization capabilities during crises.

In the economic realm, there has also been a noticeable expansion. IRGC-affiliated enterprises participate in numerous infrastructure projects and the energy industry, having a widespread presence in sectors such as construction, communications, and transportation. These economic activities provide a resource base for the organization and further enhance its institutional influence.

This trend changes the balance of political power in Iran. Religious institutions still hold formal supreme authority, but national governance increasingly relies on the executive capabilities of security agencies. The involvement of the military system makes the decision-making process more focused on discipline and stability.

Mojtaba's long-standing connection to this security system places him in a special position within the power structure. A 2019 sanction document from the U.S. Treasury noted that although he did not obtain a formal position through elections or public appointments, he performs some functions of power in actual political operations. This situation illustrates that there are numerous informal mechanisms in Iranian high-level politics that rely on trust and personal networks.

As the role of the IRGC in the national structure continues to expand, the relationship between political leaders and the security system becomes particularly critical. The power succession process thus involves not only decisions within religious institutions but also the attitudes and support of the military system.

3. The Combination of Resource Distribution Systems and Political Power

There exists a vast network of assets controlled by religious foundations and quasi-official organizations in the Iranian economy. These organizations are usually legally classified as charitable or social institutions, but the actual scale of the economic resources they control is enormous.

The foundation system operates widely in fields such as real estate, industry, financial services, and commercial investments. Its revenues do not entirely enter the national fiscal system but operate within independent organizational structures. In this way, some national resources can be reallocated within the system.

This mechanism plays a significant role in Iranian politics. The distribution of economic interests is often closely linked to the maintenance of political alliances. Institutions that control resources fulfill economic functions and also play a role in maintaining political stability. National governance and economic interests thus form a highly intertwined relationship.

The U.S. Treasury noted in sanctions against the Foundation for Oppressed People that this organization and its subsidiaries possess influence in multiple key industries in Iran and have close ties to the core circle of the Supreme Leader. Relevant notes also mentioned that some political figures or their relatives have long used foundation assets, renting at prices well below market levels.

This information indicates that in the Iranian system, wealth is not merely a matter of private property but part of the political structure. Economic resources flow between different levels through foundations, affiliated enterprises, and agency relationships.

In such a institutional environment, overseas asset allocation has gradually become a sensitive issue. When political core figures are suspected of preserving wealth through foreign investments, public opinion often links this to domestic economic pressures. The issue's focus is not just on the scale of assets but also on whether resource distribution aligns with the political narrative.

It is also important to note that cross-border assets sometimes serve risk management functions. In an environment of long-term sanctions and currency instability, foreign investments can act as a means of capital preservation. Therefore, the relationship between political power and economic resources becomes even more complex.

4. The Sanction Environment and Digital Financial Channels

International sanctions have had a sustained impact on the Iranian financial system. Some banks have been excluded from the global financial communication system, and traditional cross-border payment channels have faced significant restrictions. Trade settlements and international financing thus encounter difficulties.

In this context, digital assets have gradually entered Iranian economic activities. Cryptocurrencies can complete value transfers without relying on the traditional banking system, making them practically useful in sanctioned economies.

The Iranian government has allowed some cryptocurrency mining activities and explored using digital assets for trade settlements. With the development of trading platforms and over-the-counter markets, a local crypto ecosystem has gradually formed.

The role of digital assets in the Iranian financial structure is primarily reflected in three aspects. Firstly, they serve as a supplementary channel for cross-border payments, providing alternatives in some trade transactions. Secondly, they act as capital transfer tools, offering new paths for the flow of funds in a financially restrictive environment. Thirdly, they serve as means of risk diversification for asset preservation during economic fluctuations.

On-chain transactions do not imply complete anonymity but reduce dependency on the banking system. This point is significant for sanctioned countries.

Meanwhile, regional commercial centers play an important role in the flow of funds. The Gulf region has long been a crucial node in Iran's trade network. Commercial agents, over-the-counter dealers, and offshore companies together constitute a complex commercial system.

In this structure, digital assets are gradually merging with traditional trade networks. On-chain funds can be rapidly transferred to offshore nodes, then exchanged for real currency or assets through over-the-counter markets. Financial activities therefore present a characteristic of combining online and offline.

5. The Future Form of the Iranian Power Structure

Combining political, economic, and financial changes, new characteristics of the Iranian national structure are emerging.

The role of security agencies in national governance continues to strengthen. Military and intelligence systems are not only tasked with defense but also exert significant influence in political stability and economic activities. The decision-making system thus becomes more centralized.

Economic resources increasingly rely on foundations and quasi-official institutions for distribution. These organizations function as economic entities and also play an important role in maintaining political alliances.

The financial structure is gradually forming a multi-layered system. Traditional banking systems, regional trade networks, and digital asset channels together constitute the framework for the flow of funds. Financial instruments at different levels operate in various scenarios.

Within this institutional framework, the role of political leaders is not only that of symbolic national representatives but also as coordination nodes among various power networks. Religious legitimacy, support from security agencies, and resource allocation capabilities jointly determine their political status.

Mojtaba occupies a position at the intersection of these networks. His political influence is not an isolated phenomenon but part of the long-term evolution of Iranian power structures. Religious authority, military strength, economic resources, and cross-border financial systems are interconnected in this structure, collectively shaping the mode of national governance.

This combination gives Iranian politics new characteristics: institutional legitimacy is still expressed through religious language, while the operation of the state increasingly relies on security agencies and complex resource networks. The future development path of Iran largely depends on how this structure continues to evolve and how internal society and external environments impact it.

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