What to know : Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone is reiterating his bearish call that bitcoin could fall below $10,000, arguing the crypto market remains in a prolonged macro-driven unwind. Several analysts dispute the likelihood of such a steep drop, saying a move to $10,000 would likely require an extreme global liquidity crisis or other extraordinary shock. While some market watchers see room for further downside, they generally expect bitcoin to drift lower or trade in a wide range rather than collapse, and some argue the major bear-market bottom may already be in.
Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone, who previously said bitcoin could drop to $10,000, is reiterating his call that bitcoin could still fall below that level, an outlook several market analysts said would require an extreme macroeconomic shock.
In an interview with EllioTrades, McGlone said the crypto bear market may not be over and warned that bitcoin could remain vulnerable if global risk assets reprice sharply.
McGlone’s forecast was met with rebuttals from several market analysts who said that while they agree a further downside for bitcoin is possible, a drop to $10,000 would likely require an extraordinary global liquidity event.
“Analysts often get lost in short-term macro noise, and sometimes they extrapolate that into silly conclusions,” said Mati Greenspan, founder and CEO of Quantum Economics.
“For an asset like bitcoin, which regularly sees tens to hundreds of billions of dollars in daily trading volume across global markets, to revisit $10,000 we’d need a global liquidity crisis, a nuclear war, and the internet to stop working.”
Bitcoin is currently hovering around $70,000, after trading between $69,000 and $71,000. BTC’s price rise appeared to coincide with oil quickly reversing most of its session's large gains, dropping $3 per barrel in minutes. Other crypto assets, including ether (ETH), solana (SOL) and XRP, also saw upward moves.
McGlone based his bearish analysis on broader macroeconomic conditions. He believes bitcoin has increasingly traded in tandem with other speculative assets as institutional participation in crypto markets has grown, weakening the narrative that crypto serves as an uncorrelated hedge against traditional markets.
According to McGlone, the crypto sector remains trapped in a broader macroeconomic unwind driven by deflationary pressures, excess speculative supply and what he sees as an unfinished correction in traditional risk markets.
Further downside still possible
Other analysts, who see potential for further bitcoin price decline, also echoed Greenspan's sentiment that McGlone’s price target is unlikely.
“A move toward levels like $28,000 would likely require a meaningful contraction in global liquidity, widening credit spreads, or a broader financial stress event rather than just a late-cycle slowdown," said Jason Fernandes, co-founder and market analyst at AdLunam.
Jonatan Randin, senior market analyst at PrimeXBT, also said bitcoin could see further downside but described the $10,000 prediction as highly improbable.
“There will always be analysts calling for extreme price targets during a bear market,” Randin said. “Can we go down to $10,000? Yes, it’s possible, but I see it as highly unlikely.”
Randin expects bitcoin to gradually drift lower in the coming months, adding that the next major accumulation zone could emerge between $30,000 and $40,000.
“If the market is in a downtrend, you are in a bear market,” Randin said. “You’re going to remain in a bear market until the primary trend shifts.”
In the shorter term, however, he expects bitcoin to remain largely range-bound between $60,000 and $70,000, warning that even a rally toward $80,000 could prove temporary if broader macro pressures persist.
The bottom may already be in
Greenspan said identifying an exact market bottom is difficult, but he noted that bitcoin may have already completed its major bear-market correction.
“Trying to pick an exact bottom is a fool’s errand,” he said. “Structurally, bitcoin already cleared its major bear market in 2022. We’re currently looking at roughly a 50% retracement from the all-time high, which is not unusual for bitcoin.”
He added that recent price action has been encouraging and that it is “quite possible we’ve already seen the bottom.”
McGlone, however, believes the market still needs to go through a prolonged cleansing of speculative excess before a durable bottom can form.
“I think it’s going to last a while, and I don’t think it’s going to end until we purge some of these excesses,” he said.
“It’s a bear market,” McGlone added. “Sell rallies.”
Read more: Next week could spice things up for bitcoin as seven central banks face an inflation test
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