Trading Moment: Non-farm payrolls approaching, crude oil surges, gold, silver, and Bitcoin under pressure, eighty percent of analysts bullish on BTC.

Daily market key data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

Macroeconomic Market

The United States will officially enter Daylight Saving Time on March 8, stock trading will start one hour earlier, and trading hours will be adjusted to 21:30-4:00 Beijing time. In addition, global capital is closely watching the February non-farm payroll report tonight. With an expected increase of 59,000 jobs, the market is holding its breath. PGIM and Amerivet Securities warn that if the employment data exceeds expectations, it may further fuel rising U.S. Treasury yields.

The Middle East geopolitical powder keg has been completely ignited, as Iranian drones struck the U.S. aircraft carrier "Abraham Lincoln," leading to a humanitarian crisis that has even affected innocent people, with as many as 150 schoolchildren being forced to evacuate urgently due to the conflict. The latest report from the Joint Maritime Information Sharing Center indicates that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has almost completely halted, with the number of passing ships reduced to single digits. Only two confirmed commercial passages have been observed in the past 24 hours, both involving cargo ships rather than oil tankers.

Amid fears of supply disruptions, Brent crude is nearing $90, while WTI crude has surpassed $82, reaching a new high. J.P. Morgan urgently calls out that tank capacity is at a critical point, and within the next three days, the volume of forced production cuts in the Middle East may reach 3.3 million barrels per day; meanwhile, Saudi Aramco has significantly raised the price of crude oil sold to Asia by $2.50 per barrel. Faced with soaring oil prices, Trump appears unfazed, bluntly stating, "Let it rise, military action is much more important," and vows to completely eliminate the Iranian leadership. However, the U.S. Treasury may unprecedentedly short oil futures to stabilize oil prices, while the U.S. has issued a temporary 30-day waiver to ease restrictions on India purchasing Russian oil, alleviating the situation where up to 9.5 million barrels of stranded Russian oil are stuck.

AI Sector Dynamics

The competition for computational power in the field of artificial intelligence is evolving into a national-level geopolitical game. The U.S. government plans to extend AI chip export controls globally, requiring all AI accelerators exported by giants like NVIDIA and AMD to obtain licenses. The Trump administration aims to act as the global "gatekeeper" of AI, firmly holding core technologies in its hands.

Negative policy news has been a cold shower, leading to a collective sharp decline in chip stocks, with NVIDIA and AMD dropping 1.9% and 2.3% respectively during intraday trading; although NVIDIA managed a last-minute increase of 0.16%, market panic has become evident.

The "burning money game" in AI infrastructure is intensifying, as traditional giants and crypto mining companies are rushing in. J.P. Morgan expects to invest $20 billion in AI this year, marking an unprecedented scale in the banking industry; meanwhile, Oracle is experiencing negative cash flow due to AI infrastructure, and is contemplating large-scale layoffs.

Bitcoin mining companies are also madly shifting direction amid the computational power wave. CleanSpark sold off up to 97% of its Bitcoin production in February, cashing out over $36 million, solely to bet everything on the expansion of AI and high-performance computing data centers.

Bitcoin Market

Bitcoin has fallen 3% from its recent high of $74,000 to around $71,000 under the pressure of risk aversion and liquidity contraction, currently testing the support level at $69,420. Meanwhile, the exchange rate ratio of Bitcoin to gold has been in a 13-month downtrend since peaking in December 2024.

The competition for computing power combined with the AI craze has led miners to sell off aggressively. Since October last year, listed mining companies have sold off more than 15,000 BTC; Cango sold 4,451 BTC in February (accounting for 60% of its holdings), Bitdeer cleared out its inventory in January, Core Scientific plans to sell 2,500 BTC in the first quarter, and CleanSpark sold 553 BTC (accounting for 97% of February's output, retaining only 13,363 BTC). As a result, the hash price index, which measures miner profitability, has plummeted from $39 three months ago to a historical low of $30.

Currently, MicroStrategy holds 720,737 BTC at an average price of $76,000, a position that has become a psychological barrier for bulls. According to data from Greeks.live, on March 6, options with a nominal value of $2.3 billion will expire, with the maximum pain point at $69,000. Bitcoin stabilizing above $70,000 and potentially challenging $75,000 seems possible, but the options market shows a dominance of sell-to-open call options, slowing the upward momentum. However, unbias data shows that the proportion of bullish analysts in the market has significantly risen to 80%.

Bearish Views

The bear camp believes that the current rebound is merely a short-term remedy after reduced selling pressure, and the market lacks sustained short-squeeze momentum, facing deeper corrections after breaking support.

CryptoQuant research director Julio Moreno points out that on-chain data shows the market is still in a bear environment, and the recent rise is just a "relief rebound".
Analyst Murphy emphasizes that the MVRV extreme deviation indicator shows that the rebound is close to the top range of $74,000 to $78,000, which could meet resistance and fall back at any moment.
Trader Roman states that the daily level lacks volume support, and the current trend belongs to a pullback confirmation after breaking support, which will inevitably trend towards lower points in the short term.
Godot analysis states that the market has not yet entered the FOMO stage, institutional funds are continuously pushing up the strike prices of sold-to-open call options to absorb bullish liquidity, maintaining the logic of oscillating to harvest time value unchanged.

Bullish Views

The bull camp firmly believes that the short-term pullback is just a healthy washout in a larger upward trend, with strong liquidity support below, and a long-term dollar-cost averaging strategy still holds an absolute advantage.

Analyst CryptoReviewing believes that the bears have been completely eradicated, and once the liquidity above $73,000 is cleared, it will directly open the door to higher levels.
TurboBullCapital points out that $63,000 is an excellent demand zone, and prices will once again challenge the resistance level of $75,000 after the washout.
Cyril-DeFi states that the current trend resembles a reset within a larger upward trend; as long as the support at $70,000 holds, Bitcoin will continue to climb towards the upper channel.
Ali Charts emphasizes that $70,685 is an extremely critical support zone; once stabilized, the upper range up to $81,000 will be a fluid "vacuum zone".

Ethereum Market

Ethereum failed to maintain its stability after reaching $2,200, currently hovering above $2,000. Underlying sentiment in the derivatives market is turbulent, with $380 million in nominal value of ETH options set to expire today, with the maximum pain point at $1,950. Despite weak on-chain fundamentals and a lack of bullish leverage demand in the derivatives market, continued inflow of institutional funds has led to fierce competition between both bulls and bears at the critical support level of $2,100, with overall market sentiment leaning towards cautious observation.

Bearish Views

Bears point to the deteriorating fundamentals of Ethereum, arguing that the network upgrade has harmed the token economics, and the false on-chain prosperity masks the decline in real demand.

The short-selling institution Culper Research publicly announces a short position on Ethereum, claiming that the Fusaka upgrade raised the Gas limit to 45 million to 60 million, causing Gas fees to plummet by 90%. Moreover, 95% of the new wallet activities and over 50% of transaction growth are illusions created by dust attacks and poisoning (accounting for 22.5% of total transactions).
Trader UB warns that Ethereum has failed to break out of the consolidation zone like other mainstream coins; if it cannot quickly reclaim $2,150, it will be an excellent shorting target.

Bullish Views

Bulls still value Ethereum's decentralization premium and technical formation support, believing that the return of institutional funds will trigger a new round of rebound at any moment.

The CryptoQuant analyst team points out that the Coinbase premium index has hit a new high, indicating that buying activity from the U.S. is returning, and the dominance of sellers is diminishing.
Cyril-DeFi analysis suggests that Ethereum is perfectly retracing to the lower support of its long-term ascending channel; historical experience shows that this region is very likely to trigger a strong rebound.
Trader Crypto Patel emphasizes that as long as the macro bottom of $1,750 is maintained, bulls are still in control of the overall situation, with upward targets directly aimed at $2,500 to $2,600.
Man of Bitcoin believes that if the price successfully retraces and breaks through the trend line, it will directly challenge Fibonacci expansion levels of $2,340 and even $3,400.

Market Dynamics

The altcoin market is undergoing a brutal liquidity drought, with as much as 38% of altcoins hovering near historical lows, the severity even exceeding that of the FTX collapse. Under the overwhelming pressure of macro uncertainty, the market fear and greed index is dominated by extreme risk aversion, with high liquidation amounts across the board.

However, some projects continue to explode with remarkable vitality amid despair. With rising demand for trading traditional assets like U.S. stocks, gold, and crude oil on-chain, Hyperliquid's HIP-3 market trading volume continues to rise, surpassing $2.2 billion, while WTI crude contract daily trading has increased by 140% in light of recent geopolitical risks.

Moreover, the integration of traditional finance with the crypto world is accelerating. The parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, ICE, has heavily invested in OKX, raising its valuation to $25 billion and causing the OKB token to spike 58% to $124 temporarily. Kraken is also following suit by launching an xChange engine to support 24/7 trading of tokenized U.S. stocks like Apple and Tesla.

Key Data (as of March 6, 13:00 HKT)

(Data source: CoinAnk, Upbit, SoSoValue, CryptoBubbles)

Bitcoin ETF: -$227.83 million
Ethereum ETF: -$90.94 million
SOL ETF: -$5.23 million
XRP ETF: -$6.16 million
Fear and Greed Index: 18 (Extreme Fear)
Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: XRP, BTC, BARD, ETH, SIGN
Sector Performance: Crypto sectors exhibit mixed performance, while the AI sector rises nearly 2%

24-hour liquidation data: A total of 93,063 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $227 million, including $104 million in BTC liquidations, $40.33 million in ETH liquidations, and $10.69 million in SOL liquidations.

Today's Outlook

HyperLiquid Co-founder: 173,000 HYPE will be unstaked and distributed to team members on March 6
Coinbase has delayed the listing time of Limitless (LMTS) to early March 7
Binance lists COPPERUSDT perpetual contract (with copper as the underlying asset)
U.S. February unemployment rate: 4.3% expected, previous value 4.3% (March 6, 21:30)
U.S. February non-farm payroll change (10,000): 55 expected, previous value 13 (March 6, 21:30)
North America will begin implementing Daylight Saving Time, U.S. stock trading starts one hour earlier (March 8, 15:00)
OP will unlock about 19.5 million tokens on March 7, worth about $2.4 million
RED will unlock about 40.85 million tokens on March 7, worth about $6.2 million

Top gainers among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization today: OKB up 26.7%, Kite up 24.4%, River up 18.2%, pippin up 8.3%, Pi Network up 6.7%.

Hot News

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