Author: Deep Tide TechFlow

US Stocks: On the sixth day of the war, the Dow's annual gains return to zero

On Thursday, Wall Street continued to be shrouded in the shadow of the US-Iran war.

The Dow plunged 785 points (-1.61%) to close at 47,954 points, erasing all gains of 2026 and turning to an annual negative value. The S&P 500 fell 0.56% to 6,830 points, and the Nasdaq fell 0.26% to 22,748 points.

Among the 30 constituent stocks of the Dow, 24 fell. Goldman Sachs dropped 3.68%, Merck fell 3.58%, and Sherwin-Williams declined 3.52%, leading the decline. During intraday trading on Thursday, the Dow briefly fell more than 1,000 points but rebounded at the close, narrowing the losses—this has become the norm this week.

Annual performance comparison: the Dow turned negative, the S&P 500 is -0.16% year-to-date, and the Nasdaq is -1.4%. The only bright spot is the Russell 2000, which remains positive with +3% year-to-date returns.

The energy market is completely out of control.

WTI crude oil surged more than 8%, breaking through $81.01 per barrel, marking the first time it has crossed $80 since July 2024. Brent crude soared nearly 5% to $85.41 per barrel, also reaching a new high since July 2024.

The catalyst for the oil price surge was: Iran hit an oil tanker with a missile. This marked the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz turning from a "threat" into "reality"—the global choke point for 20% of oil supply was truly closed.

Oil prices soared from $66 last Friday to $81, a cumulative increase of over 22%, in just 5 trading days.

On Thursday, 10 of the 11 sectors in the S&P 500 fell, with only the energy sector slightly rising by 0.4%.

The materials sector plummeted 2.4%, making it the worst-performing sector of the day. The industrial sector fell 2.3%, with Caterpillar down 4.4%, GE Aviation down 3.5%, and 3M down 3.3%. Investors are worried about supply chain disruptions and rising costs.

The financial sector faced a bloodbath: Goldman Sachs dropped 3.94%, Morgan Stanley fell 3%, and Wells Fargo decreased by 3%. The volatile interest rate environment puts significant pressure on financial stocks.

Airline stocks continued their downward trend: United Airlines, Delta Air Lines, and American Airlines recorded cumulative declines of 8-11% this week, as aviation fuel costs soared, squeezing profit margins.

The only winner: the energy sector rose slightly by 0.4%, as Exxon Mobil, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips benefited from rising oil prices. The technology sector increased by 0.06%, mainly supported by semiconductor stocks—with Micron and AMD jumping over 5%, and Broadcom and NVIDIA rising over 1%.

The VIX volatility index surged 12.29% to 23.75 on Thursday, although it is below Tuesday’s high of 25.16, it remains in the "panic" zone. The 10-year US Treasury yield surged 1.62% to 4.146%, indicating a clear signal from the bond market: inflation is returning, and the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a mid-year rate cut plummeted from 57% to 45%. If oil prices remain above $80, the Federal Reserve may not lower rates for the entire year, and may even be forced to raise rates again.

Cryptocurrency: OKB surges 40%, NYSE parent bets on crypto future

On Thursday, the biggest news in the crypto market was not Bitcoin, but OKB.

The parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), announced a strategic investment in OKX, valuing the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency exchange at $25 billion. Upon the announcement, OKX’s platform token OKB soared from $77 to $120, a single-day increase of over 40%. Although it subsequently fell back to $92-106, the 24-hour trading volume surged from the usual $44 million to $470 million, a 1657% increase.

This transaction is not a simple financial investment. According to the agreement, ICE gains a seat on the OKX board and authorization for real-time cryptocurrency price data, to launch regulated crypto futures contracts. Meanwhile, OKX will provide ICE's American futures and tokenized stock market to its 120 million global users, planning to launch tokenized trading of NYSE-listed stocks in the second half of 2026, meaning users can trade tokenized stocks of companies like Apple and Microsoft on the crypto exchange 24/7.

This is ICE's third significant cryptocurrency move in six months: it invested $2 billion in Polymarket last October, announced the development of a tokenized securities platform in January, and now strategically invests in OKX. ICE CEO Jeffrey Sprecher bluntly stated, "The competitors of the future may not be CME or Nasdaq, but DeFi protocols or super apps."

For OKX, this is a stunning turnaround from regulatory shadows to Wall Street endorsement. Just a year ago, OKX had just reached a $500 million settlement with the US Department of Justice for admitting to operating an unlicensed remittance business. Now, with ICE's investment and board seat, it signals that Wall Street sees it as a reliable long-term partner.

Regarding Bitcoin, according to CoinGecko data, its price stabilized in the $70,000-$71,000 range on Thursday, showing steady performance. The total global cryptocurrency market capitalization is approximately $2.49 trillion, with Bitcoin's market share remaining at 57.1%. Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to see net inflows, while the crypto market's fear and greed index remains at 22 (extreme fear), but the price holding above $70,000 indicates that a bottom is forming.

ICE's investment in OKX raises a question: is this a "surrender" of traditional finance to cryptocurrency, or a "takeover" of the crypto world by Wall Street? At least today, the 40% surge of OKB and ICE's $25 billion endorsement proves one thing: cryptocurrency is no longer a fringe game that Wall Street can ignore; it is becoming part of the financial infrastructure.

Gold and Silver: War premium fades, slight uptick at close

On Thursday, gold rose slightly by 0.35% to $5,096 per ounce, far from the extraordinary increases seen on Monday and Tuesday. Silver showed a similar performance, with limited gains.

Why aren’t safe-haven assets rising but falling instead?

Three reasons: firstly, the strengthening US dollar suppresses the price of gold priced in dollars; secondly, the market is beginning to adapt to the state of war, with panic sentiment diminishing; thirdly, some investors are selling gold for cash to meet margin calls in the stock market.

The market is now only concerned with one question: how long will the war last? Can oil prices be kept below $80?

If the war ends in the next few days and oil prices fall back, the stock market will rebound strongly. If the war continues for weeks, with oil prices sustained between $80-$90, inflation may spiral out of control, and the Federal Reserve may be forced to raise interest rates, leading to a larger crash in the stock market.