Author: 137Labs

The situation in the Middle East has suddenly escalated, and energy supply security has once again become a core variable in the global market. The risks in the Strait of Hormuz, rising shipping and insurance costs, and expectations of potential supply disruptions have quickly pushed up the risk premium for crude oil; at the same time, the rise in risk aversion and inflation expectations have strengthened gold. This article systematically reviews how war affects the pricing logic of oil and gold prices from three paths: supply shocks, transmission of inflation, and the contraction of risk appetite, and analyzes the performance differences of risk assets like Bitcoin in periods of high uncertainty, combining historical conflict experiences with the current macro environment to explore key variables and asset allocation directions for the future market.

1. Macroeconomic Background for Rising Oil and Gold Prices: Repricing of Risk Premiums

In early 2026, the international oil price and gold price rose simultaneously, which is not an isolated event. From the supply-demand structure and inflation expectations to the accumulation of geopolitical risk premiums, price increases have an inherent basis.

On the oil side, the global supply system is already in a fragile balance. OPEC+ continues its production cut policy, the growth of U.S. shale oil is slowing marginally, and global inventories are at relatively low levels. On the demand side, the recovery of Asian economies combined with seasonal restocking keeps the oil market in a tight balance. Under this structure, any potential disruption in supply will be quickly amplified by the market.

On the gold side, continuous purchases by central banks, a temporary inflow of ETF funds, and the market's reassessment of medium to long-term inflation expectations collectively boost the gold price center. The global uncertainty index remains high, further reinforcing gold's safe-haven attributes.

Therefore, before the outbreak of geopolitical conflict, oil and gold prices already had a structural basis for rising.

2. Escalation of War in the Middle East: Supply Shock and "Maritime Oil Valve" Risks

After Israel targeted Iranian objectives with military strikes, the situation in the Middle East rapidly intensified. The core of the conflict is not only at the military level but also due to its geographical location— the throats of global energy transport.

The Strait of Hormuz carries about one-fifth of the world's crude oil marine trade volume; if shipping is obstructed or insurance costs soar, even if there is no substantial supply disruption, the risk premium will be quickly factored into futures prices. The market pre-prices scenarios like oil tankers being attacked, refinery facilities damaged, or ports closed, leading to a spike in oil prices.

At the same time, attacks on energy facilities and disruptions in shipping further reinforce the narrative of "supply vulnerability." Prices for natural gas, refined oil, and related derivatives fluctuate simultaneously. Rising oil prices boost inflation expectations, leading to phase fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index, putting pressure on global risk assets.

The scale of the military conflict itself is still difficult to assess, but the market's sensitivity to supply chain uncertainty is significantly higher than its assessment of the conflict itself.

3. Asset Transmission Mechanism: From Energy Shock to Contraction of Risk Appetite

The impact of war on precious metals and oil primarily transmits through three paths:

1. Supply Shock Path

Crude oil is the foundational energy for the real economy. Rising transportation costs, expectations of declining inventories, and increased insurance fees are all quickly reflected in futures prices. Rising energy costs further transmit to industrial metals, agricultural products, and global shipping indices.

2. Inflation Expectation Path

Rising oil prices mean that future CPI may be under pressure. The market begins to reassess the central bank's policy path. If inflation rebound expectations strengthen, lower expected real interest rates will support gold prices.

3. Risk Appetite Path

Geopolitical conflicts typically come with increased volatility in stock markets, shifting funds towards high liquidity and safe-haven assets. Gold benefits significantly, while the dollar may also strengthen in the short term due to flight-to-safety demand. High-valued risk assets face valuation compression.

4. Immediate Performance of Gold and Oil

After the escalation of the conflict, oil prices quickly rose, with intra-day gains significantly expanding. Market focus turned to transportation security and the integrity of energy facilities. There has been a clear risk-hedging behavior on the trading front, with volatility indicators rising in tandem.

Gold prices continued their upward trend. Institutional investors increased their exposure to safe-haven assets, with demand for physical gold and ETFs rising. Silver, as a precious metal, also strengthened but with higher elasticity than gold, leading to more volatile movements.

The market pricing logic displays typical "war premium" characteristics:

· Energy: Supply risk premium

· Gold: Safe-haven and expected real interest rates

· Stocks: Risk discount

· Bonds: Policy expectation rebalancing

5. Historical Comparison: How War Changes the Volatility of Commodities and Crypto Assets

Historical experience shows that every major conflict in the Middle East or serious geopolitical confrontation has led to sharp fluctuations in energy and precious metals at different stages.

· During the Gulf War, oil prices spiked in the short term before retreating as the situation became clearer.

· In the early stages of the Iraq War, gold rose while risk assets faced pressure.

· In 2019, when Saudi oil refining facilities were attacked, oil prices surged dramatically in a single day.

· After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, both energy and gold prices jumped, driving up global inflation.

The common point is:

At the initial stage of the conflict, the market generally overprices the worst-case scenario; then, as information transparency increases, price fluctuations become more rational.

6. Bitcoin and Crypto Assets: Safe Haven or High Beta Risk Asset?

In this round of conflict, Bitcoin prices exhibited significant fluctuations. Unlike gold's unidirectional safe-haven property, Bitcoin's response is more complex.

Research indicates that when geopolitical risks rise, Bitcoin may temporarily move in line with risk assets—that is, it may decline in tandem with falling risk appetite. However, in regions with certain capital controls or rising pressures from currency depreciation, Bitcoin may also be viewed as a capital transfer tool, leading to a structural increase in demand.

From a statistical perspective, there is a phase correlation between Bitcoin and energy prices as well as the geopolitical risk index, but this relationship is not a stable linear one. Its price is more influenced by the global liquidity environment and the movement of the dollar.

Thus, in the context of war, Bitcoin is closer to being a "high-volatility risk asset" rather than a traditional stable safe-haven tool.

7. Key Variables in the Current Market

Key factors that will influence the market ahead include three points:

1. Is the conflict spilling over? If the situation is limited to targeted strikes, the risk premium on oil prices may gradually decline; if it involves a blockade of the strait or multiple countries' involvement, supply shocks will significantly escalate.

2. Changes in shipping and insurance costs: The actual extent of logistics disruptions will determine the energy price center.

3. Inflation and policy paths: If energy prices remain high, the pace of interest rate cuts by the central bank may be delayed.

In a high uncertainty environment, asset pricing logic returns to "safety first." Gold benefits from rising risk premiums and changes in expected real interest rates; oil depends on the actual extent of supply damage; Bitcoin seeks a new balance between risk appetite and liquidity.

8. Conclusion: The Cyclicality and Structural Nature of War Premiums

Precious metals and oil are never just commodities; they are amplifiers of global risk sentiment. War brings not only supply-demand shocks but also challenges to the stability of the global financial system.

History shows that the price volatility at the beginning of a war often contains emotional premiums; the mid-to-later stage trends depend on the degree of fundamental repair and policy response strength.

In the current environment, the market is reassessing three core questions:

· Will there be a substantial disruption in energy supply?

· Will inflation rise again?

· Is global risk appetite entering a contraction cycle?

These three points will determine the price paths of gold, oil, and Bitcoin in the coming months.

Wars change not only the geopolitical landscape but also reshape the risk boundaries of asset prices.

(This article represents personal opinions and does not constitute any investment advice.)

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