Author: SOL That Can't Be Understood
This article took 26 hours to be deeply organized by AI Lobster, with several foreign investment banks and asset management institutions releasing their outlook for 2026, summarizing expectations for major asset classes, allocation logic in different regions, and economic data. In addition to traditional firms like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, Merrill Lynch, Barclays Private Bank, UBS, HSBC, and Deutsche Bank, we have also added four new institutions (Macquarie, Standard Chartered, DBS, BlackRock), allowing you to view the outlook of 12 foreign financial institutions in one go.
1. Major Asset Allocation Recommendations
The asset recommendations from various investment banks differ significantly in expression, and the predicted assets are also inconsistent. Some provide clear index points, while others require interpretation of their viewpoints through their wording. Compared to last year, the asset prediction statements are more ambiguous this time, with many falling into slightly optimistic/pessimistic ranges.
?Stock Market View
?FICC Market View
In general, the views of foreign institutions
Very optimistic: Gold > Yen > US Stocks
Neutral optimistic: Chinese Stocks = Emerging Market Stocks > Japanese Stocks > European Stocks > Renminbi
Neutral: Cryptocurrency > Euro
Pessimistic: 10-Year US Treasuries > Crude Oil
Logic for Gold
Positive Factors
1. Diversification of Central Bank Reserves: Russian assets are frozen, and global central banks have increased gold reserves for four consecutive years out of concern over financial sanctions, while the proportion of the dollar as foreign exchange reserves has fallen to 56%.
2. Risk Hedging Tool: The scale of US Treasury bonds is about $36 trillion, and an expansionary fiscal tendency may lead to devaluation of dollar credit. With increasing geopolitical conflict, gold is the best hedging tool.
3. Monetary Easing and Downward Interest Rates: Most central banks globally are adopting accommodative monetary policies, reducing government bond yields, thereby lowering the opportunity cost of replacing bonds with gold.
These three positive logics are identical to last year.
Negative Factors
1. Interest-Free Asset with No Carry Yield in Long-Term Holding: Fiscal expansion leads to persistently high inflation, which could keep dollar interest rates high, negatively impacting gold with no carry.
2. Increased Volatility Reducing Value for Allocation: Gold volatility has risen to the highest level in nearly three years, and its upward potential has been significantly released, leading to a marked reduction in gold's return/risk ratio.
3. Hedging Function May Fail: The hedging functionality of gold does not operate effectively in every economic downturn.
Logic for Crude Oil
Positive Factors
1. Escalation of Geopolitical Risks: Global geopolitical conflicts mainly revolve around oil-producing regions, especially the blockade of oil routes in Venezuela; local conflicts exist in the Middle Eastern Strait of Hormuz and the Mandeb Strait; secondary sanctions imposed on Russia's oil output could reduce crude oil supply.
2. OPEC+ May Tighten Supply: If oil prices continue to decline, there is a possibility that OPEC+ will suspend production increases in the first quarter.
Negative Factors
1. Rising Inventories and Idle Capacity: Even if demand grows mildly in 2026, WTI still faces ample supply, idle capacity, and rising inventory pressures, leading to persistent oversupply in the market.
2. "High Production" of US Shale Oil, Significant Increase in Exports: The record oil production in the US, alongside Trump's policy expectations increasing oil collection, has prompted OPEC+ to ramp up production to maintain market share.
3. "Normalization" of Geopolitical Risks: A ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war, a slowdown in Middle Eastern conflicts, and the lifting of sanctions on Venezuela would all increase global crude oil supply, negatively impacting oil prices.
2. Regional Economic Judgments and Logic
Predictions for Economic Data Across Regions:
Logic of the Chinese Economy
Positive Factors
More "Precise" Policy Support: In the face of growth and employment pressure, policies are more likely to adopt targeted fiscal and structural monetary tools to reduce tail risks and raise the lower limit of growth.
Clear Main Line for Technology and Advanced Manufacturing: The launch of the new five-year plan for 2026–2030 will focus resource allocation more on "innovation/technology independence/advanced manufacturing/green transition," with industry policy certainty stronger than macro cycle certainty.
Resilience in Exports and Global Market Share: Despite the uncertainty in global growth, China maintains resilience in exports relying on product competitiveness, integrity of the industrial chain, and market diversification.
Improvement in Profit Quality from "Anti-Inflation/ Supply-Side Rebalancing": Under the pressure of capacity expansion and price wars, if governance levels promote optimization of competition order, industry self-discipline, and leading integration, profitability and cash flow quality in some industries are expected to improve.
Asset Repricing Space: Under-allocation of overseas funds, valuation retracement, and increased policy certainty provide a soil for the repricing of equity assets; once macro signals stabilize, fund inflow may occur before the fundamentals.
Domestic Liquidity Easing: Domestic residents have limitations in alternative investment options, and the easing liquidity created by the banking system will support the capital market. This year has added logic on technological innovation, the 15th Five-Year Plan, and anti-inflation.
Negative Factors
External Friction and Tariff Risks Remain High: Restrictions and trade barriers in high-tech fields are subject to fluctuations, and even if there is a temporary easing, policy uncertainty may still suppress risk appetite and capital expenditure willingness.
Residual Effects of Real Estate and Slow Recovery of Residents' Balance Sheets: The recovery of housing price expectations and related chains (local finances, financial credit, durable goods consumption) will take time, and internal demand elasticity is limited.
Continuing Deflationary Pressure: Capacity expansion combined with weak demand could lead to ongoing disinflation pressures and "involution-style" competition in industries, dragging down corporate profit margins and income expectations.
Local Fiscal Constraints, Limiting Total Stimulus Force: Policies are more inclined towards structural support rather than全面加杠杆, with infrastructure and investment relying more on policy finance, and there are constraints on marginal efficiency and sustainability.
Population Aging and Employment Expectations are Long-Term Variables Not Favorable to Consumption: Consumption recovery relies more on gradual improvements in income and employment.
Thematic Market Sentiment and Regulatory Tail Risk: If the technology/AI theme experiences a sentiment decline or if regulation tightens again, it may trigger valuation fluctuations and a retreat in risk appetite.
Investment Directions
Technology and AI Industrialization: Focus on the AI hardware and software ecosystem, cloud and data infrastructure, semiconductor localization, automation and robotics, as well as internet platforms and communication sectors that show profit improvement.
Advanced Manufacturing, Clean Energy, and Power Systems: With improved global market share and industrial upgrades, pay attention to the electrification chain, renewable energy, energy storage, grid investment, and high-end equipment.
Healthcare and Biotechnology: Driven by long-term demand due to aging, focus on innovation capabilities, commercialization abilities, and policy adaptability suitable for structural配置思路精选.
High Dividend and High Cash Flow Assets: In a low-inflation environment, stable cash flow, governance improvements, and enhanced shareholder returns are favorable for central state-owned enterprises and non-financial high-dividend assets.
Improvement in Supply-Demand Dynamics and Industry Integration Under "Anti-Involution": In the context of overcapacity, avoid a全行业β approach, instead focusing on leading companies with optimized cost curves, share increases, industry integration acceleration, and restored profit margins; durable goods are more suitable for tactical配置思路在政策窗口期.
This year, foreign investment is optimistic about leading companies in the services and manufacturing sectors, with broader and finer industry focuses than last year, indicating that foreign institutions have increased their attention and gained new insights on Chinese assets.
Logic of the US Economy
Positive Factors
Accelerated Capital Expenditures and Penetration of AI: Strong capital expenditures and accelerated AI proliferation are expected to drive the continued rise of AI-related stocks; there exists a long-term imaginative space where "terminal user AI annual revenue could reach approximately $2 trillion."
Expansionary Fiscal Policy Boosting Business Confidence: With the midterm elections approaching, the policy focus may shift to "targeted tax reductions and regulatory loosening," coupled with tax benefits from the "Great Beautiful Act," favorable for corporate investment, expansion, and rebound in capital expenditures.
Loosened Monetary Policy Benefits Financial Conditions Improvement: Anticipation of three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by the end of 2026, along with relaxed banking regulations, supports profits and valuations.
Corporate and Household Balance Sheets Remain Resilient: Consumer demand is expected to be supported by stable wage growth and relatively healthy balance sheets of middle and upper-income groups.
Historical Experience of Political Cycles and Risk Premium Recession: Midterm election years often present "better buying opportunities," with historical data showing that the S&P 500 averages a rise of about 13.5% in the 12 months following midterm elections.
Narrative of AI-Driven Productivity Enhancement: Automation and productivity improvements brought about by AI are seen as allowing more GDP to be created with fewer labor inputs, with businesses likely capturing most of the productivity gains.
Compared to last year, there is less expression of "American Exceptionalism," focusing more on the supports from dual monetary and fiscal expansions.
Negative Factors
Tariff and Policy Uncertainty: The pressure of tariffs on prices and exports may lead the economy into a downturn; at the same time, policy uncertainty damages confidence and suppresses capital expenditure, with the inflation effects of tariffs still pending to manifest.
Weak Labor Market and Structural Transition: Unemployment rates have risen to 4.4%, accompanied by increased layoffs, with "white-collar job cooling" likely impacting this drivers of high-income consumption growth.
K-Shaped Economic Consumption Divergence, Economic Reliance on Wealthy Groups: Weak consumer spending among low-income earners leads to weaker than expected consumption and rising credit pressures, weighing down on the stock market and economy.
Housing and Credit Discrepancies, Rising Default Rate Risks: The housing market faces "prolonged issues," with employment recessions leading to higher mortgage default rates, suppressing risk appetite.
Potential Resurgence of Inflation and Debt Constraints, Higher Interest Rate Centers: The persistent rise in costs of basic goods and services alongside stagnation in real income creates an imbalance; coupled with rising government debt and high inflation risks, this may elevate bond yields and suppress valuations.
Minimal "Tolerance Space" for AI Expectations: Valuation and concentration have been pointed out as core risks, suggesting diversification away from major US stock giants; also indicating that the narrative around technology may trigger bubbles, and the market's outlook on AI profit potential is overly optimistic with almost no tolerance for risk assets.
Tightening Immigration Leading to Inflation: A tightening of immigration brings labor supply pressures, elevating risks of spiraling wages and prices.
Investment Directions
Artificial Intelligence and Technology Main Line: Focus on AI (computation power/software/application) and US technology leaders' allocations, while paying attention to "AI builders" and long-term commercialization opportunities.
Power Grid and Utilities (Structural Opportunities with Accelerated Power Demand): Chain related to "infrastructure + power systems" such as grid modernization, power management, electrical equipment, energy storage, and water resource management.
Healthcare: Healthcare has frequently been mentioned as an investment opportunity, covering pharmaceuticals and segment allocations.
Finance: Regulatory easing promotes increased financial activity, and net interest income outlook is favorable.
Infrastructure and Resource Products ("Electrification/Energy Systems" Spillover): Infrastructure allocations and resource products; also pay attention to companies in natural gas and renewable energy, as well as highly related firms dealing with copper, rare earths, etc.
Eurozone Economic Logic
Positive Factors
German Fiscal Stimulus: Germany's fiscal expansion and increased investment provide clearer pro-cyclical support for the Eurozone; investments related to infrastructure and climate transition improve corporate orders and confidence.
Monetary Policy Easing Transmission and Credit Cycle Recovery: In the context of rate cuts and easing financial conditions, loan standards have become looser, and corporate financing costs have decreased, stabilizing investment and durable goods demand, pushing the economy from "weak recovery" to "more balanced recovery."
Profit Cycle Resurgence from Stagnation to Mild Acceleration: With cost controls, marginal demand improvement, and easing financial conditions, corporate profit growth is expected to rebound.
Valuation Discount is Significant: European stocks are undervalued compared to US stocks and comparable global assets, coupled with global tech/AI sentiment overflow, the market is likely to exhibit a "positive correction starting from low expectations." Negative Factors
High Savings Rate Suppresses Consumption Recovery: Resident consumption willingness remains cautious, leading to slower internal demand recovery and weaker elasticity, making the economy more reliant on external demand and policy stimuli.
Tariff Uncertainty + Strong Euro Drags on Profitability: A strong euro will further erode exporters' profit margins, hampering the performance of cyclical sectors reliant on external demand.
Political Instability and Policy Implementation Risks: Political uncertainties and fiscal disagreements in some member states may repeatedly disturb market expectations; moreover, even when fiscal space exists, slow speed of project implementation will weaken policy multipliers.
Reliance on External Factors Creates Vulnerability: Rising energy prices will swiftly transmit to corporate costs and disposable income, making the Eurozone more sensitive to external shocks.
Manufacturing and Technology Chains are Under Pressure: Pricing and market share pressures from global competitors (notably China) may suppress the profitability and investment willingness of European manufacturing (especially components, equipment, and some tech hardware).
Aging Population, Skills Shortages, Slow Reform Progress, and High Debt: Population aging and skills shortages restrict supply-side growth; slow progress in structural reforms further diminishes long-term potential; high-debt countries exhibit more pronounced fiscal vulnerabilities in low-growth conditions. Investment Directions
Finance and European Banks: In an improved credit environment, decreased financing costs, and relatively low valuations; additionally, compared to export chains, financial institutions are less sensitive to foreign exchange shocks.
Industry and Defense: Increasing defense expenditures and tendencies towards re-industrialization will support orders and capital expenditures, suitable for industries and defense chains with technological barriers, delivery capabilities, and long-term contract characteristics.
Utilities and Infrastructure: Energy security, grid improvements, and transformation investments enhance the certainty of utilities and infrastructure assets; this sector possesses both cash flow and defensive attributes.
Technology and Software: The overflow of global tech prosperity may present opportunities, but internal differences within European technology are considerable; thus, focus should be on directions less impacted by external competition.
Healthcare: Healthcare is relatively less influenced by cycles, combined with the aging trend.
3. Perspective on Foreign Financial Institutions' Views
Judgments are relatively conservative, with some predictions already realized before the end of the year: Similar to last year, the predictions made by foreign financial institutions are generally continuations of the year’s market without many radical or reversal forecasts. Target points for the expected increases in gold and renminbi were reached shortly after the outlook release; however, this time we can see non-American investment banks like Barclays and Macquarie clearly pointing out risks in US stocks.
Generally optimistic across all assets, but the expression is vaguer than last year: Given that the US, China, and Europe are all in a dual accommodative monetary and fiscal policy pathway, predictions for almost all assets tend toward optimistic expectations; however, fewer specific points are provided in the texts. Many logics regarding bearish sentiments on the US economy exist but are rarely reflected directly in asset predictions, being more of a long-term risk warning.
Recognition of Chinese assets has increased: Although China, as the second-largest economy, still occupies a smaller portion in discussions, this year has elaborated more on the advantages of electricity in AI competition and mentioned many innovations in robotics, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals, reflecting a change in foreign institutions' past stereotypes of China having only a population and no technology.
The reading value of foreign institutions' perspectives: Recently, as the renminbi fell below 7, self-media brought out last year's depreciation expectations for the renminbi from foreign institutions, contradicting them. If you revisit "An Overview of Foreign Institutions' 2025 Outlook in One Go", the forecasts from foreign institutions are rarely precise. Even the most aggressive gold forecasts don't go beyond $3000; no institution has estimated $4500.
Foreign investment, being a lower allocation of funds to Chinese assets, is likely to become one of the main incremental players driving the 2026 market; more importantly, it helps to understand the thinking and consensus expectations of overseas investors, to find investment opportunities beyond expectations and capital inflows.
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