Daily market key data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

A profound structural adjustment is underway. Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warned that the world is in a “great cycle” adjustment phase, and investors must closely monitor the four core driving factors of growth, inflation, risk premiums, and discount rates. He suggests resisting potential debt crises and currency devaluation risks through broadly diversified investments. On Monday, a report titled “The Global Intelligence Crisis of 2028” released by James van Geelen, founder of Citrini Research, sparked panic in the market by depicting a scenario where AI causes massive white-collar unemployment and leads to economic collapse, momentarily triggering a plunge in US stocks, with the S&P 500 index dropping over 1%, and major software stock ETFs declining over 4%. Analysis from Bull Theory indicated that the combination of AI and stablecoins poses a significant threat to global payment giants, resulting in a 4.6% drop in Visa’s stock price, a 5.7% decline in Mastercard, and a 7.2% fall in American Express. The trading volume of stablecoins has skyrocketed to $33 trillion in 2025, a year-on-year increase of over 70%, supported by their nearly zero costs and instant settlement advantages. Citigroup even predicts that the supply may reach between $1.9 trillion and $4 trillion by 2030.

The fragile sentiment in the market was dramatically repaired on February 24, as all three major US indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average surging nearly 400 points. This was primarily due to AI company Anthropic emphasizing in a press conference that its AI tools are “partners” and not “replacements”, which boosted market confidence, leading to respective stock price increases of 4%, 2.6%, and 11.4% for its partners Salesforce, DocuSign, and Thomson Reuters. Meanwhile, AMD announced a GPU supply agreement with Meta valued at up to $60 billion to $100 billion, causing its stock price to spike by 14%, with market expectations that its AI chip market share will rise from 9% to over 15% by the end of 2026. Futures market data also showed that traders, worried about AI's impact on the labor market, are betting that the Federal Reserve will continue to lower interest rates.

In this context, HSBC's report defies the consensus by arguing that the software sector's valuation is at a historical low, ultimately suggesting that software will “devour and tame” AI and predicting that 2026 will be the inaugural year for the software industry to monetize AI. All eyes are on the upcoming NVIDIA financial report, with the market generally expecting its revenue to reach $65.56 billion, viewed as a crucial barometer to judge whether this AI boom is merely a “halftime break” or if the “party is over.”

The Bitcoin market is currently at a critical gambling phase, with in-depth analysis from Coinbase Institutional pointing out that Bitcoin’s key support level is at $60,000, while the resistance level is at $82,000. Its Gamma Exposure (GEX) model indicates significant negative gamma exposure in the $60,000 to $70,000 range, meaning that a price drop below this area could accelerate the decline; conversely, the areas above $85,000 and $90,000 show positive gamma, which may suppress price increases, leading to market “grinding and anchoring.”

The structural lack of demand in the US market is seen as a major reason for the selling pressure, with ETF funds continuously flowing out. Mining company Bitdeer also liquidated its Bitcoin holdings, although its chairman Wu Jihan later clarified that “a holding of 0 does not mean it won’t hold in the future,” yet market sentiment remains weak. Samer Hasn from XS.com believes that a new down cycle has begun, with targets possibly in the $53,000 to $55,000 range; Matt Howells-Barby from Kraken also warns that if it falls below $60,000, the next support level is $55,000. On-chain data reveals deeper risks; Glassnode notes that Bitcoin’s realized profit/loss ratio (90-day moving average) has fallen below 1 for the first time since 2022, entering a state of “excess loss realization”. Historically, such situations have led to price declines of 25% (2022) and 50% (2018) in the following months, and its model suggests a potential bottom near $44,000.

However, Coinbase's Bitcoin premium index recently ended a nearly 40-day stretch in negative territory, rebounding to 0.0159%, suggesting that US institutional investors might be re-entering the market around $64,000. Glassnode data shows that despite the market being in an “excess loss realization” phase, over 400,000 Bitcoins have been accumulated in the $60,000 to $70,000 range. Trader Cyril-DeFi believes that the “weak hand washout” below $60,000 is now complete, with the market consolidating between the $56,000 support and the $71,000 to $77,000 resistance. Mark pointed out from a technical perspective that a “harmonic Gartley pattern” has appeared on the daily chart, based on the 0.618-0.786 Fibonacci retracement levels, firmly believing that a rebound to $69,000 is not difficult. Another trader, Sykodelic, has set the first target at $66,200 and is optimistic about Bitcoin returning to $73,000. BitMine chairman Tom Lee even optimistically predicts that the crypto market will end the winter by April at the latest, possibly requiring just one more dip to establish a bottom.

Ethereum's situation is similarly precarious, as massive selling pressure mainly stems from a net outflow of up to 563,600 ETH (worth about $113 million) from spot ETFs over the past five weeks. Its co-founder, Vitalik Buterin, sold about 17,000 ETH (worth about $34 million) in the past month, further shaking market confidence, despite Vitalik previously announcing intentions to sell ETH from personal holdings to fund the development of the Ethereum ecosystem.

On-chain data shows that Ethereum's network TVL has fallen to $51 billion, the lowest level since May 2025, with network fees also shrinking significantly. Although the MVRV ratio has dropped to 0.78, historically within the long-term accumulation zone, analyst Ali Charts warns that under significant selling pressure, prices may continue to test lows; if it falls below $1,800, key support levels are sequentially $1,584, $1,238, and $1,089. From a technical analysis perspective, trader BitBull points out that a bearish flag pattern is forming, with a final target pointing towards the $1,400 to $1,500 range. Deeper criticism comes from Wintermute founder Evgeny Gaevoy, who bluntly states that the TVL of the Ethereum ecosystem is mainly composed of “settled funds”, and the entire crypto industry has deviated from its original intent of building a decentralized monetary system, indulging instead in speculation.

The entire crypto market has been in a state of extreme fear for 27 consecutive days, with YZi Labs recently reducing its holdings in the tokens invested. Following the liquidation of ID half a month ago and AI and WOO yesterday, today it transferred $4.37 million in EDU to Binance. Senior market analyst Samer Hasn from XS.com points out that geopolitical tensions, tariff uncertainties, and tightening liquidity are collectively prompting accelerated capital withdrawals from high-risk asset markets like cryptocurrencies. However, Steve Kurz, head of global asset management at Galaxy Digital, provides a calmer perspective, believing that the recent decline is caused by liquidity and leverage being released, rather than systemic failures, signaling that the market is more mature than in 2022. He expects the market will not experience a V-shaped recovery but will undergo a period of range-bound oscillation before gradually rising with the infusion of institutional capital and the “great integration” of cryptocurrencies with traditional finance.

2. Key Data (as of February 25, 13:00 HKT)

(Data source: CoinAnk, Upbit, SoSoValue, CoinMarketCap)

• Bitcoin: $64,956 (Year-to-date -25.83%), daily spot trading volume $4.412 billion

• Ethereum: $1,883 (Year-to-date -36.43%), daily spot trading volume $2.687 billion

• Fear and Greed Index: 11 (Extreme Fear)

• Average GAS: BTC: 10.06 sat/vB, ETH: 0.35 Gwei

• Market share: BTC 57.9%, ETH 10.2%

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: ENSO, XRP, BTC, SKR, ETH

• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 50.34% / 49.66%

• Sector rise and fall: The crypto market rebounded across the board, with the DeFi sector leading a rise of over 4%

24-hour liquidation data: A total of 88,206 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $222 million, including $99.47 million in BTC liquidations, $47.35 million in ETH liquidations, and $8.47 million in SOL liquidations.

3. ETF Flows (as of February 24)

• Bitcoin ETF: + $258 million

• Ethereum ETF: + $9.2271 million

• SOL ETF: + $3.7777 million

• XRP ETF: + $3.0420 million

4. Today's Outlook

• Hong Kong Financial Secretary Paul Chan: The new fiscal budget will be announced on February 25

• Binance will delist certain trading pairs and automatically liquidate related positions on February 26

• ZachXBT: An investigation report on insider trading among leading crypto companies will be released on February 26

• Crypto exchange ProBit Global will terminate all services on February 26, urging users to withdraw funds as soon as possible

• NVIDIA earnings call (February 26, 6:00)

• The US House Oversight Committee summons Bill and Hillary Clinton to testify regarding the Epstein case (February 26)

• The Bank of Korea will announce its interest rate decision (February 26)

• Plasma (XPL) will unlock approximately 88.89 million tokens on February 25, valued at approximately $10.79 million

• Humanity (H) will unlock approximately 105 million tokens on February 25, valued at approximately $14.12 million

Today's top gainers among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization: Ether.fi up 15.2%, Morpho up 13.4%, LEO Token up 13.2%, Virtuals Protocol up 12.9%, Kite up 11.5%.

5. Hot News

• Former Governor of the Bank of Japan: The Bank of Japan is likely to raise interest rates twice in each of 2026 and 2027, bringing rates to about 1.5% to 1.75%

• YZi Labs transferred 37.33 million EDU to Binance, valued at approximately $4.37 million

• A trader bets on NVIDIA's earnings report, having built up approximately 147,000 NVDA long positions on Hyperliquid

• Trump: Ensuring that congressional members cannot profit from insider information

• Coinbase Bitcoin premium continues its 40-day negative stretch, finally turning positive at 0.0159%

• Insiders: Meta plans to re-enter the stablecoin space in the second half of this year

• Binance re-enters the tokenized stock market through partnership with Ondo Finance

• White House official: Trump's plan for a 15% tariff rate “remains unchanged,” with no clear timeline for implementation

• MoonPay launches MoonPay Agents, allowing AI agents to autonomously access wallets, funds, and transact

• An independent Bitcoin miner successfully mined block 938092, earning about $200,000 in block rewards

• Coinbase partners with Yahoo Finance to open stock trading to all US users

• WisdomTree will launch 24/7 trading and instant settlement services for tokenized money market fund shares

• YZi Labs transferred 13.54 million AI and 11.11 million WOO to Binance

• The Ethereum Foundation launches treasury staking, planning to stake approximately 70,000 ETH

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