The market mistakenly believes that quantum computing is a "thing of the next decade," but Barclays warns that the industry will reach a "quantum advantage" decisive moment in 2026/27.

Written by: Long Yue

Source: Wall Street Insights

Investors generally think that quantum computing is still in the realm of science fiction, but Barclays' latest research report points out that this "too early" illusion may cause you to miss the most critical trends in the next 12 months.

According to news from the trading desk, Barclays' analyst team has released a new report titled "Quantum Computing: Correcting Investors' Biggest Misunderstanding."

The core logic of the report is very straightforward: Wall Street has underestimated the speed of technological breakthroughs while completely misunderstanding the relationship between quantum and classical computing (such as Nvidia). Barclays believes we are on the brink of transitioning from "laboratory toys" to "commercial tools."

Misunderstanding 1: Quantum Computing is "Too Early"

Barclays' first correction is: Don't treat quantum computing as a purely long-term theme that will yield results "ten years from now."

The current market generally believes that a perfectly functioning "fault-tolerant quantum computer" (FTQC) will not be available until after 2030. This is true, but Barclays warns investors not to overlook the "intermediate milestones."

Barclays points out that 2026 to 2027 will be a watershed moment for the industry, when "quantum advantage" will be achieved.

More importantly, it's about "how to define advantage." Barclays believes, "The advantage is proven when the system targets 100 logical qubits." It also reminds that any "advantage claim" requires "strong technical data" backing it up; otherwise, it resembles marketing rather than a turning point.

"We expect significant announcements within the next 12 months… When the system can stably operate 100 logical qubits, quantum advantage will be proven."

This is akin to the Wright brothers' first flight; although it cannot yet carry passengers (commercialize), it proved that airplanes are superior to horse-drawn carriages (quantum advantage). Once this signal appears, the valuation logic in the capital market will be instantly reshaped.

Misunderstanding 2: Quantum is Here, Replacing Classical Computing, and Nvidia is Finished?

This is the biggest cognitive bias in the market. The research report points out that many people believe quantum computers are so powerful that they will replace current CPUs and GPUs. Barclays counters: This is not a replacement relationship but rather a "strong auxiliary" relationship.

"Quantum computers will not replace classical computers as general-purpose machines; they will complement them."

The core logic behind this is "error correction": qubits are very fragile and unstable (prone to errors). To make them work properly, a very powerful classical computing system needs to monitor and correct them in real-time.

Barclays' research reveals an astonishing data relationship:

"Each logical qubit may require a GPU for error correction and control."

What does this mean? If you build a quantum computer with 1,000 logical qubits, you will need to procure 500 to 2,000 GPUs to support it.

This is no longer competition but symbiosis. The stronger the quantum computer, the greater the demand for Nvidia and AMD chips. Barclays estimates that this "co-dependent demand" could bring over $100 billion in incremental growth to the classical computing market by 2040 under a blue-sky scenario.

Misunderstanding 3: All Quantum Hardware is Similar, Like Buying a Lottery Ticket?

The truth behind this misunderstanding is that the field has already differentiated, and the advantages and disadvantages are very clear.

The quantum hardware paths are not singular. Barclays categorizes the mainstream physical qubit paths into electrons (superconducting, electron spin), atoms (ion traps, neutral atoms), and photons, pointing out that their respective advantages and disadvantages come from speed, precision, coherence time, external infrastructure (low temperature, lasers, vacuum), and scalability.

Through the "quantum benchmarking model," Barclays highlights the current chaotic hardware landscape:

• The current "king of precision" — Ion Traps: Represented by companies Quantinuum and IonQ. Their advantages are accuracy, low error rates, and relatively mature technology.
• The future "dark horse of mass production" — Silicon Spin: This is the direction Intel is pursuing. Although its current performance is average, it can utilize existing semiconductor factories for manufacturing, making it the easiest to scale up once breakthroughs occur.
• Winning by quantity — Neutral Atoms: They have a natural advantage in stacking the number of qubits.

Barclays concludes:

"Our tests show that ion traps are currently in the lead… but the scalability of silicon spin is worth long-term attention."

Misunderstanding 4: Are Passwords Going to be Cracked?

Regarding the panic that "quantum computers will crack bank passwords tomorrow," Barclays directly poured cold water on it: You're overthinking it; the computing power is still insufficient.

To crack the current RSA encryption, thousands of perfect logical qubits are needed, while the most advanced devices currently have only dozens. Barclays bluntly states:

"Quantum computers are not yet powerful enough… we are not at the point where modern encryption standards are threatened."

Misunderstanding 5: There are Only Two or Three Companies to Invest in Quantum Themes

The market often believes that investment targets in this field are scarce and limited to a few well-known companies. However, Barclays has mapped the entire industry chain, identifying 45 publicly listed companies and over 80 private enterprises. They are mainly distributed across four major areas:

1) Quantum processors (system sales or QCaaS cloud access)

2) Quantum supply chain (low temperature, lasers/optics, control electronics, materials, etc.)

3) Quantum chip design and manufacturing (overlapping with traditional semiconductor manufacturing)

4) Ecosystem enablers (cloud, data center infrastructure, quantum simulators, quantum-classical integration: GPU/CPU/servers, etc.)

The framework provided in the report leans more towards "risk pricing": in the short term, "higher revenue exposure" often corresponds to "higher technical risk." It roughly categorizes technical risks based on whether the business model is tied to a single path: high (single path), medium (few paths), and low (path-independent).

This also explains why the quantum narrative easily "focuses only on pure quantum hardware stocks": their revenue exposure is the most direct, but the path uncertainty is also the greatest; while the supply chain, semiconductor equipment, EDA, cloud and data centers, and mixed integration segments may better accommodate the transmission of "quantum progress → capital expenditure and supporting demand."

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