So far, so good…

Author: Jemima Kelly

Translation: Shenchao TechFlow

Senchao Introduction: Bitcoin has recently experienced its most severe crash since 2022, wiping out all gains made after Trump's election victory and revealing the fragility behind the political dividends. The author, Jemima Kelly, uses a classic line from the film "La Haine" to sharply satirize the crypto community's "psychological victory" during the crisis. Even with the unprecedented "Bitcoin President" in the U.S. and its designation as a national strategic reserve, the wave of sell-offs could not be stopped.

The author believes that when a bubble entirely built on "faith in others" begins to burst, and when the "greater fools" no longer appear, Bitcoin's fall will ultimately lead to a catastrophic landing.

The full text is as follows:

"This is a story about a man falling from a 50-story building. As he falls, he comforts himself by repeatedly saying: Jusqu’ici tout va bien (So far, so good), so far, so good, so far, so good."

This is the stunning opening of the 1995 French cult classic film "La Haine."

This text, this imagery, for some reason, has been deeply imprinted in my consciousness, accompanying me for life. Whenever I feel anxious or experience "imposter syndrome," it always soothes me. It suggests that since nothing has gone wrong so far, perhaps I can continue to be this lucky.

And "so far," the salespeople and shamans in the Bitcoin world have also been doing just fine.

Of course, Bitcoin has indeed experienced dozens of significant crashes, hundreds of crypto companies may have gone bankrupt, and countless individuals may have lost their life savings, but every time Bitcoin drops, it always manages to rebound.

Those who can afford to lose have managed to hold on (the ones who got washed out are those who couldn't afford it), and the cognitive muscle memory they gain from each rebound leads them to believe that their sacred cryptocurrency will live forever.

Allow me to sensitively point out: it will not.

The excessive confidence of Bitcoin believers—or more accurately, the confidence they display that is necessary to keep the entire system functioning—has always been unfounded, irresponsible, and reckless. Since its inception, Bitcoin has embarked on a journey destined to end with it "shattered on the ground."

This week, that "ground" is rapidly becoming clear. Bitcoin has faced its most severe crash since 2022, dropping to nearly $60,000 on Friday, erasing all gains since Donald Trump's potential re-election in 2024, and falling more than half from last October's historical high of over $127,000.

According to Coinglass data, approximately $1.25 billion in Bitcoin positions were liquidated in just 24 hours from Thursday to Friday.

This sense of despair and the so-called "cope" (crypto slang suggesting someone is in denial, struggling to accept painful reality) is evident. "I've never been more optimistic about cryptocurrency than now," former Coinbase CTO and prominent crypto evangelist Balaji Srinivasan posted on X on Thursday, "because the rule-based order is collapsing, and the code-based order is rising. So short-term prices don't matter." Of course, he would say that.

Some have chosen self-deprecating nonsense.

Michael Saylor, who turned his company Strategy (MicroStrategy) into a Bitcoin gambling tool (the company holds over 713,000 BTC, about 3.4% of the total supply), posted on Wednesday: "If you want to give me a birthday gift, please buy some Bitcoin for yourself." Poor "birthday billionaire."

The next day, during the Q4 2025 earnings call—when the worst of the crash had not yet occurred, but Strategy still recorded an astonishing $12.4 billion loss—Saylor attempted some different persuasion tactics. He insisted, "I believe that gaining support for the industry and digital capital at the highest levels of the political structure is of utmost importance." He pointed out that the U.S. now has a "Bitcoin President" who is working to make America the "world's crypto capital."

But this is what makes the crypto world very awkward. Because Saylor is not wrong—America does indeed have the closest figure to a "Bitcoin President" ever, and this president's family has vested crypto interests. However, despite establishing a "strategic Bitcoin reserve," pardoning a group of convicted crypto criminals, allowing Americans to deposit cryptocurrencies into 401(k) retirement accounts, and claiming to have ended former President Biden's "war" on cryptocurrencies within his first 200 days in office, Trump's presence in the White House has still not been able to stop the wave of sell-offs. If Bitcoin cannot thrive in such an environment, when can it?

We may not have truly reached Bitcoin's final "death spiral"; I do not claim to know when that will happen. Attempting to purely infer the end date of speculative frenzy based on faith—or more specifically, based on "faith in the faith of others"—is a daunting task. Bitcoin may still have a few final hurrahs (as of writing, it has rebounded to about $69,000).

But this faith is beginning to wane. This week's events tell us that the supply of "greater fools" that Bitcoin relies on for survival is drying up. The fairy tales that support cryptocurrencies are revealing their illusory nature. People are starting to realize that for something entirely built on nothingness, its value has no bottom line.

Ask yourself: will this thing still exist in 100 years? Remember that saying: "What matters is not how you fall, but how you land."

So far, so good, so far, so good, so far…

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