As of Feb. 7 at 1:30 p.m. Eastern time, all three major prediction marketplaces point in the same direction: traders expect the Seattle Seahawks to lift the Lombardi Trophy, not New England. While each platform differs in structure and liquidity, the probabilities tell a remarkably consistent story.
Polymarket wager screenshot taken at 1:30 p.m. Eastern time on Feb. 7, 2026.
On Polymarket, Seattle is priced near a 68–69% implied probability to win, leaving the Patriots in the low-30% range. The moneyline alone has attracted roughly $6 million in volume, while spread markets and totals push aggregate activity close to $14 million, making it one of Polymarket’s most active NFL contracts.
That imbalance has persisted for days. Order flow has remained concentrated on Seattle, while New England bids appear clustered at lower prices, suggesting speculative value hunting rather than broad conviction.
The picture looks even sharper on Kalshi, where Super Bowl LX has become one of the most heavily traded sports markets on the platform. Kalshi prices Seattle at roughly a 68% chance to win, with cumulative volume exceeding $180 million—an unusually deep pool for a single sporting event.
Kalshi Super Bowl bet screenshot recorded at 1:30 p.m. Eastern time on Feb. 7, 2026.
That depth matters. High- liquidity markets tend to compress noise, meaning price moves increasingly reflect collective expectations rather than isolated bets. In Kalshi’s case, traders appear comfortable holding the line against New England rather than hedging aggressively into kickoff.
Also read: Kalshi Announces New Anti-Insider Trading Measures Ahead of Super Bowl
Myriad tells a similar, if smaller-scale, story. The platform currently prices the Seahawks at about 69.4% implied probability, with just under $6,000 in cumulative volume. While less liquid, Myriad’s market has shown no meaningful late-week tightening, reinforcing the broader consensus.
Historically, this timing is critical. Prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi have averaged roughly 88% to 89% accuracy one day before resolution across a broad range of contracts, making late-stage pricing particularly informative.
That does not mean certainty—football remains stubbornly unscripted—but it does mean the burden of surprise sits squarely on New England. Markets are not pricing a coin flip or a dramatic late swing.
As kickoff approaches Sunday evening, the numbers suggest traders believe Seattle controls the narrative, tempo, and margin. For the Patriots, the markets are effectively asking them to beat both the Seahawks and the math.
- Why do prediction markets favor Seattle?
Markets show sustained buying pressure on Seattle across multiple platforms, signaling higher confidence in a Seahawks win. - How accurate are prediction markets this close to resolution?
Historically, major prediction markets average about 88% to 89% accuracy one day before settlement. - Which market has the most volume?
Kalshi leads by a wide margin, with more than $180 million in cumulative trading on Super Bowl LX. - Could the odds still change before kickoff?
Yes, but late-stage markets with deep liquidity typically show limited probability swings without new information.
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