Author: Heart of Computing Power

This round of winter in the mining industry is colder and more desperate than expected.

Just when everyone was still reeling from the shock of "falling below 70,000," reality dealt another heavy blow: Bitcoin directly fell below the 60,000 USD mark.

For those trading cryptocurrencies, this number might just be a fluctuation on their accounts, but for the miners holding onto their machines, this is a real "life and death line." The current market environment is completely different from that of early last year. Back then, although it was tough, there was still a glimmer of hope, with the belief that prices would soar after the halving.

But what about now? The overall network hash rate is still desperately climbing, and everyone is racing to keep up, fearing that falling behind will lead to being crushed by competitors. The result is: more machines are being turned on, but the pie being shared is getting smaller and smaller. With the hash rate price dropping to this level, to put it bluntly, many small and medium-sized mining farms may be losing money on electricity and depreciation for every coin they mine.

1. Giants Are Falling

In the past, everyone thought that top mining companies, with their coins, mining machines, and low electricity costs, could easily win. But reality has slapped them in the face.

Bitcoin mining company MARA transferred 1,318 BTC, worth about 86.89 million USD, to TwoPrime, BitGo, and GalaxyDigital in the past 10 hours. The information circulating in the industry is heartbreaking: MARA has been targeted by large institutions, and this transfer is likely to sell coins to pay off debts. Ironically, MARA bought these Bitcoins at a cost of 69,000 USD.

Cutting losses at the 60,000 USD mark, even the giants are being repeatedly rubbed against the market. When industry benchmarks start to recognize losses and exit, how much confidence do ordinary miners have left?

2. Who Is Hovering on the Edge of Life and Death?

Currently, running mining machines means losing money, and shutting them down means losing life. According to the latest global hash rate data and electricity cost, this calculation has been driven to the bone.

The "Death Line" of Mainstream Models

According to Antpool data, under the current Bitcoin mining difficulty and the assumption of 0.08 USD per kWh, models like Antminer S19XP+Hyd, Bitmain M60S, and Avalon A1466I are nearing their shutdown coin price; the shutdown coin price for the Antminer S21 series (S21, S21+, S21Hyd) is around 69,000 to 74,000 USD. Additionally, high hash rate models like Antminer U3S23H and S23Hyd have a shutdown coin price above 44,000 USD.

3. The "Self-Harming Involution" of Hash Rate Prices

Why has the coin price dropped while the hash rate is still at a new high?

This is the cruel reality: large mining farms are conducting "dimensionality reduction strikes." To survive, large funds are continuously investing in more efficient S21 and S23 mining machines, causing the overall network difficulty to rise sharply. This has turned into an extremely involuted marathon: everyone is running, but I’m not running fast to win; I’m just trying not to be trampled by those behind me.

The current mining industry is no longer a "paradise for wealth," but a standard heavy asset, low margin, high-risk processing industry. MARA's coin-selling behavior is just a signal; it tells us that even if you have mining machines, in the face of liquidity exhaustion and losses, you still have to bow your head.

This wave of falling below 60,000 is essentially the last pang of the mining industry transitioning from the "wild era" to the "oligarch era."

Stop believing in the nonsense of "halving must rise." In the face of absolute cost pressure, all narratives are hollow. The current mining game has entered a phase of stock competition; it is no longer a game of who is bolder, but rather who has more stable cash flow, who has higher machine efficiency, and who can reduce electricity costs to a few cents.

The so-called "darkest hour" is often the beginning of a reshuffle in the industry. When the tide goes out, some people are swimming naked, while others are in the deep sea with stronger oxygen tanks. Perhaps looking back in a few months, the current "shutdown wave" is just the entry ticket that must be paid before the next wealth distribution.

But this time, can you still produce this entry ticket?

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