I. Conclusion First: Don't Rush into Spot Trading at This Position
The recent decline is quite rare, and many friends who have just entered the market may be encountering this situation for the first time.
Even in the last bear market, there was no instance of a unilateral drop of over 30,000 points in a short period, and the speed of decline back then was nowhere near as fast as it is now.
The more critical point is:
Is there an extreme bearish event? No.
Is there a clear black swan? No.
Yet the price has experienced such a drastic drop, which in itself is quite abnormal.
Therefore, my personal judgment is that this kind of movement does not rule out the possibility of brewing a larger decline. This viewpoint may be hard to understand right now, but from experience, market movements often do not happen without reason.
II. Why I Am Cautious About "Potential Black Swans"
A couple of days ago, I mentioned a viewpoint:
For this bear market to truly end, it may still lack a "key event."
The last segment of the previous bear market was driven by the FTX collapse. On the surface, it seemed to be an exchange issue, but essentially it was:
Continuous price decline
Extreme market liquidity exhaustion
Breakdown of the capital chain, ultimately leading to the collapse
So, I personally speculate that this round may not necessarily involve an exchange collapse, but similar liquidity crisis events may be brewing.
Because of this, I believe that this position is not suitable for rushing to bottom-fish.
III. The Loss of 70,000 is a Very Important Signal
Back in October last year, when the price was around 106,000, we issued a warning about the risk of a top and provided a target range for the decline between 70,000 and 50,000.
70,000 has indeed been reached, but the problem is:
After breaking below the previous low of 75,000, there was no rebound.
The 70,000 integer level, which was highly watched by the market, also did not see a rebound.
According to common logic, there should have been some buying support at these two levels, but the actual situation is: there was none at all.
Yesterday, I also mentioned in the group:
If there is no rebound after breaking below 70,000, it is highly likely to continue declining.
The result was that after losing 70,000, the price directly fell below 60,000, dropping 10,000 points in one go.
This also confirms a judgment:
It is almost impossible for the market to reverse quickly.
IV. The Current Decline Target Range Has Been Reached
From the weekly level of Bitcoin, the theoretical target range for this round of bearish expansion is:
Between 63,000 and 53,000.
This range has already been reached this morning, and the speed was indeed beyond expectations.
But there is a very critical question here:
Does reaching the target range mean you must buy?
My answer is: not necessarily.
V. Without a Bottom Structure, It Is Not Suitable for Spot Layout
Whether it was the bottom of the previous bull market or the last bear market, there is a common characteristic:
There must be a bottom formation first.
A bottom formation means:
There is a clear bottom structure.
There is multi-cycle support.
Right-side buying signals gradually appear.
However, at the current position, there is only unilateral decline, with no structural support at all.
From the perspective of price behavior, there is no reasonable trading signal here.
Therefore, my advice for spot trading remains:
Wait a bit, don’t rush.
Even if a rapid rebound occurs later, such as a rebound from 60,000 to above 70,000, resulting in a rebound of over 10,000 points, as long as it is a unilateral rebound on the daily level, it is highly likely to drop again.
Because:
A phase rebound ≠ trend reversal.
A true reversal must be accompanied by a bottom formation process.
VI. Contracts Are Also Difficult to Trade, Risk Control First
To be honest, this kind of market is not friendly to contract traders:
Going long carries great risk.
Going short is also hard to hold.
Short positions are hesitant to chase, and long positions are hesitant to take.
If you must participate, you can only consider shorting at high positions after a rebound, and the premise is:
You must prioritize risk control.
Don’t think about how much money to make in this kind of market, but first think clearly:
How not to be swept away by the market.
Defense must always outweigh profit.
VII. Summarizing the Current Thoughts
Spot: Continue to wait for a clear bottom structure to appear.
Contracts: Participate cautiously, only consider high-position shorts, and strictly control risk.
Do not bet on a quick reversal, nor worry about missing the bottom.
A true bottom will definitely give enough time and will not happen all at once.
Follow me, join the community, and let's progress together.
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